WY Results Buzz Kill - Interpreting results

02bfishn · Jun 25, 2018

So after quite a bit of homework and research, was pretty pumped about getting out to WY for our maiden hunt with my 2 grown kids and good buddy. Based on 2017 odds, it appeared we stood an OK chance of drawing first choice with our averaged 3.25 points each. In 17, you had a 78% chance of drawing with only 2 pts, 100% with 3. So I guess as a result of a bunch more applicants this year - everything got pushed up? New at figuring out the WY program, so tell me if I was missing something stupid. Learn from your mistakes, right? Thanks for any constructive comments, thoughts.

So got our pref points...on to next year...other commitments may prevent 2019 for us...we'll see. No clue what to do there if we can...plenty of time to worry about that though. Good luck to all that got their tags!

icebreaker12 · Jun 25, 2018

Lots of units jumped two points this year for deer and antelope. Not sure the exact cause, some I am sure blame the license fee increase.

LCH · Jun 25, 2018

02bfishn said:
So after quite a bit of homework and research, was pretty pumped about getting out to WY for our maiden hunt with my 2 grown kids and good buddy. Based on 2017 odds, it appeared we stood an OK chance of drawing first choice with our averaged 3.25 points each. In 17, you had a 78% chance of drawing with only 2 pts, 100% with 3. So I guess as a result of a bunch more applicants this year - everything got pushed up? New at figuring out the WY program, so tell me if I was missing something stupid. Learn from your mistakes, right? Thanks for any constructive comments, thoughts.

So got our pref points...on to next year...other commitments may prevent 2019 for us...we'll see. No clue what to do there if we can...plenty of time to worry about that though. Good luck to all that got their tags!

The special draw odds tell the tale. Last year, <3 point pool 80% drew in the pp draw. This year, with the same quota, 67% drew with one point.

With the big jump in tag prices, a lot of people that applied special before moved over to the regular draw. My unit took 2 points in the special draw last year, this year it could be drawn 3rd choice.

3855WIN · Jun 25, 2018

There are a bunch of hunters who've been in the points game for a while and are getting older. The price increase was just a reminder to go ahead and use up points and get some hunting in before it's too late. You might want to consider the Special Draw for next year.

npaden · Jun 25, 2018

Nevermind. I can't read draw odds reports evidently!

Crazy increase in applications in the regular draw.

bb1379 · Jun 25, 2018

I think the tag increase had a lot to do with it. the antelope unit I put in for last year had roughly 500 apps in the NR reg and about 200 in the NR sp. this year it the percentage swung big time toward the regular tag. sadly my dad and I missed out by .5 points of drawing

MNElkNut · Jun 25, 2018

In this particular case, I think you were a victim of a very small amount of tags (23) and just bad luck with a couple of groups deciding to go with 6, 5, and <5 points. The numbers were so small in this case it only took a few groups to effectively boot you out!

AvidIndoorsman · Jun 25, 2018

I think the other think you have to take into consideration is the wild swings that can happy with such a small number of tags, you see this all the time in low quota units across the west for any species. One year you might be able to get a cow/ewe/doe tag 2nd choice in a given unit that has a quota of 5, but if a group of 5 guys decide they've had it with the points game and want to go on one last trip together that could swing a 2nd choice unit to a 5 point unit. 63 doesn't have a super low quota but it's small enough it could easily be effected by only a few number of hunters switching up their plans.

npaden · Jun 25, 2018

The unit I applied for had a very modest 3.5% increase in applicants in the regular draw but a very noticeable 22% decrease in the special draw applicants.

It will be interesting to see how this affects things on a go forward basis. Was this a one time thing in some units with people bailing on points or will it be a trend with a shift from special to regular draw pool on a go forward basis.

npaden · Jun 25, 2018

Looking at that specific unit 63-2 the only thing I can think of is that it was listed as a blue chip unit in some publication or something like that. That's a 292% increase in the number of applicants from one year to the next. 196 additional applicants, not one group of 5 deciding to burn a few points.

Did a really big buck get shot out of that unit last year or something?

Walkathon · Jun 25, 2018

I'm guessing since 63-2 looked like a slam dunk with 3 pts, a bunch of people with 2 or 3 points jumped on it. I agree with the above as well- I think the price increase pushed a bunch of people out of the special and into the standard drawing. Who knows, it might swing back next year and more people will go in the special and take some of the pressure off the standard draw. Guess we will wait and see

PA deer hunter · Jun 25, 2018

U can thank Eastmann’s for that one.

teej89 · Jun 25, 2018

LCH said:
The special draw odds tell the tale. Last year, <3 point pool 80% drew in the pp draw. This year, with the same quota, 67% drew with one point.

With the big jump in tag prices, a lot of people that applied special before moved over to the regular draw. My unit took 2 points in the special draw last year, this year it could be drawn 3rd choice.

Wow good conclusion, makes 100% sense.

wytex · Jun 25, 2018

I wonder if more residents applied this year due to good conditions and herd numbers and as a result fewer tags were kicked over to you NR from the R pool, in addition to the price increase causing more to burn their points or move to the regular draw ?
Will be interesting to see how this plays out in the next couple of years.

LCH · Jun 25, 2018

On the 63-2 tag, when it was a guaranteed draw with 1 point in the special, but took 5 to be guaranteed in the random, it's pretty clear to me that price played a major factor.

One other interesting thing about 63-2 is that it was actually easier to draw in the regular draw than the special last year. It's possible that guys applying in the special last year saw that their extra license dollars were working against them and applied regular.

PrairieHunter · Jun 25, 2018

Wow, quite amazing how odds can change based on tag costs and magazine recommendations. Makes you wonder if it's more about guys wanting to get out of the points game or if the same number of people applied and it was more of a change in which units and not as many doing the special draw.

I feel your pain as I had a family trip planned to Kansas this fall and somehow managed to not draw a unit which had 466 available tags last year with only 375 1st choice applications, and this year there were also 466 tags available. My only thought is that there was a huge jump in apps, waiting to see the numbers released. But as in your case it requires changing plans that had been made for months.

Time for plan B.

jt13 · Jun 25, 2018

One of our group had their tag draw odds go from 40% to 4.3% in the special drawing. In some cases it seems to have went the other direction!

HONEYBADGER · Jun 25, 2018

Find a different unit. 63 is overhyped every year by various magazines that lead all the lemmings in one direction or another. For whatever reason they all seem to be fascinated with 63. I used to hunt there too but after the mags blew it up I moved on.

Topgun 30-06 · Jun 25, 2018

PrairieHunter said:
My only thought is that there was a huge jump in apps, waiting to see the numbers released. But as in your case it requires changing plans that had been made for months.

Time for plan B.

The odds you're talking about were posted at the same time the draw results were posted last Thursday morning and you could actually get them the day before by just going to the 2017 odds and changing the URL number to 2018.

PrairieHunter · Jun 25, 2018

Topgun 30-06 said:
The odds you're talking about were posted at the same time the draw results were posted last Thursday morning and you could actually get them the day before by just going to the 2017 odds and changing the URL number to 2018.

If you read my statement again I was referring to the Kansas draw, which has not posted it's 2018 odds as of yet.

WY Results Buzz Kill - Interpreting results

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