Draw Odds

I looked at the Nevada draw odds on GoHunt and feel like the odds are a little skewed in the sense that they must include all 5 choices in their model. What I mean to say is this...how many of the 2nd thru 5th choices are actually drawn? I posed this question straight to them but hey haven't answered. Say for instance we take a look at Unit 221-222 early bull...GoHunt says 2480 NR apps and the NDOW site says 513 unsuccessful 1st choice apps. All of these apps are for 9 tags last year. How many of the 9 were 2nd-5th choice or were they all just 1st choice apps whereas rendering the 2nd-5th choices for this unit futile?

Does anyone else feel like this is the case too?

P.S. Can the application services that do it for you and charge a fee please let me know which units y'all are planning on dumping all of your clients in this year so I can know in advance not to apply in that unit? LOL...it's pretty obvious that this is what they do.

I've drawn my third choice before in other states. Figuring how many in front of me cycled through multiple choices before landing on their last gasp of hope it seems realistic that odds are much worse than simply comparing first or second choice apps.

Have you looked at these links from Gohunt for some better explaination?
https://www.gohunt.com/read/life/introducing-the-most-accurate-draw-odds-ever#gs.dyZqbT0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ScgDlvT4Axs

Here is another thread that Randy started that might provide some insight.
https://onyourownadventures.com/hunttalk/showthread.php?272907-goHUNT-com-updated-drawing-odds

Total apps might be based off bonus points... so if someone has 8 bonus points they have 8 bonus applications + 1 reg application so 9 total. I don't use gohunt but that would be my guess, apps being # names in the hat rather than # of people who put their names in the hat.

They are supposed to do a Monte Carlo simulation with something like 100,000 simulations to calculate their odds on the states like New Mexico and Nevada that look at all of one persons draw choices before moving on to the next random number.

It is pretty straight forward with New Mexico since they don't have any preference points. They do a better job than I do, but I just calculate the number of tags available by the total applicants for each tag (1st through 3rd choice). It ends up being a tiny bit more conservative that way. New Mexico publishes more detailed drawing results but if you check them out you will see that there are quite a few people who do indeed draw good tags on their 2nd and 3rd choices. I've seen a few tags where someone drew a Gila tag on their 2nd choice and my first thought is "I wonder what they applied for with their 1st choice!".

Muddy the waters up with Nevada because you have bonus points. The top end point holders are going to have a much better chance to get a very low number for the draw and have a better chance to get their choices. However, they know this and probably are going to tighten up their selections to only top tier hunts and not put a marginal unit (if there are any in Nevada) down for their 3rd or 4th or even 5th choice because they don't want to blow their points.

I'm sure there are plenty of people drawing tags in Nevada on their 2nd or 3rd or even 5th choice.

Another thing that messes up the odds is that there are quite a few people that don't bother to fill in the 2nd, 3rd, etc. choices. Looking at New Mexico, about 20% of the applications didn't bother to put down a 3rd choice for elk. I bet in Nevada even fewer people bother to put in a 4th or 5th choice.

I remember hearing that they are getting the raw data for Nevada so they are at least attempting to factor those items in.

As far as the # of apps, 513 X 5 = 2,565 so I really doubt 97% of the applicants filled out all 5 choices. I know I don't.

As far as the 2,480 being the bonus points, Nevada squares them so that doesn't sound right either.

Toprut doesn't even attempt to calculate Nevada odds. I'm assuming because they charge for the raw data.

I have 18 points for everything but elk in Nevada yet I never apply for the HF top 5 units for anything. I did my own math about 5 years ago and came to the same conclusion that the GoHunt stats came to last year. Odds are absolute Powerball, and for entry level guys, exponentially worse due to the millions of squared points ahead of them. In fact, for sheep I apply for the five lowest rated NR units in the state. However, the way states have proven they are happy to throw point holders under the bus, I have no doubt some day NV will devalue their previously sold points to straight bonus some day, to spur their greenhorn sales. Counting on that is the only way I'd buy in on the ground floor today. The Nevada system is a house of cards. Only a matter of time until the "change" occurs.

When it comes to NV, I've personally drawn my 2nd and 3rd choices before. Always put in your 5 choices, especially for Deer and Elk, because there really isn't a bad unit. You can never pick a bad Elk unit and when it comes to Deer, sure some will have less numbers but every single unit has the potential of finding that booner that you've always dreamed about. Last year I drew my 2nd choice for Deer and it was a primo archery hunt. Too bad that I had to turn that tag in.

I have been drawn as NR in NV a few times and never for my 1st choice. Since NV looks at all 5 choices in order once they pull your application, makes sense if a lot of people have similar #1 selections that after the first few applications are picked then the #1 popular unit is out of NR tags so the other units start filling up as well. The Monte Carlo method runs scenarios multiple times to simulate several complete drawings. If I know there are 10.000 NR applications for elk in NV and know how many tags were available along with how many NR put in for each of the hunts then I can run a simulation even though I am not sure what each applicant's ordering was. The simulation is much, much more accurate to reveal what your odds were if you place a given hunt unit on your application, whether as your 1st or 5th choice. Merely looking at 1st Choice applications vs tags that may have been awarded as 1st or 2nd or 3rd or 4th or 5th choice is not very useful.

If instead, NV only looked at an applicant's 1st Choice before moving onto the next applicant then odds are easy to determine for last year.

Not my place to say what goHUNT's data includes, but I doubt most of us would buy draw data that wasn't complete.

Zim said:

I have 18 points for everything but elk in Nevada yet I never apply for the HF top 5 units for anything. I did my own math about 5 years ago and came to the same conclusion that the GoHunt stats came to last year. Odds are absolute Powerball, and for entry level guys, exponentially worse due to the millions of squared points ahead of them. In fact, for sheep I apply for the five lowest rated NR units in the state. However, the way states have proven they are happy to throw point holders under the bus, I have no doubt some day NV will devalue their previously sold points to straight bonus some day, to spur their greenhorn sales. Counting on that is the only way I'd buy in on the ground floor today. The Nevada system is a house of cards. Only a matter of time until the "change" occurs.

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Our house of cards has been working just fine since the system was started in 1976. Nevada probably has the smallest big game herds of any western state. Most states harvest more deer and elk than we even have in our state. So I have no problem with the powerball odds for NR hunters. It's tough for us residents as well.

FWIW, I drew NV elk and deer tags last year, both as 4th choice. Turned the deer tag back in. I did use goHunt to devise a strategy and order my choices, but I still needed some luck, particularly for the elk tag.

Those of you applying in NV should be aware there are new waiting periods on some animals.
http://www.ndow.org/Hunt/Resources/Eligibility/

Gr8bawana said:

Our house of cards has been working just fine since the system was started in 1976. Nevada probably has the smallest big game herds of any western state. Most states harvest more deer and elk than we even have in our state. So I have no problem with the powerball odds for NR hunters. It's tough for us residents as well.

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I don't have a problem with it either, but I'm sitting comfortably at 18. I'm just pointing out the facts. Ground floor greenhorns odds are getting worse each year. When NV sees their greenhorn applicant numbers and dollars dwindle, the squared point system will be thrown out with the bath water. Because that's what states do. I'm trying to burn my points before that happens.

Because NV doesn't have a straight bonus point system people with 1 or even 0 bonus points have drawn highly sought-after tags.
So no the greenhorn numbers and dollars are not going to dwindle because they know they have a chance no matter when they start applying.

If you guys worry about it taking a lifetime to draw tags in NV, then you should go to NDOW's website and checkout the statistics and draw odds. Then check out the bonus point data, and that will change a lot of peoples minds about never being able to draw. I look at these statistics every year to see how many people draw primo tags from deer all the way down to sheep, and draw with 0 points. It just amazes me and gives me hope, even though I am a resident. Everyone has a chance and us residents can tell you NR stories of all the crazy tags that we've seen drawn with astronomical odds. The best one that I know about is a friend of mine and his dad both drew a desert sheep tag in the same area, the same year, and that area only had 6 tags available. You cannot party for sheep in NV. The son had around 8 points and the dad had over 20+. Talk about hitting the powerball!!

Antcap said:

If you guys worry about it taking a lifetime to draw tags in NV, then you should go to NDOW's website and checkout the statistics and draw odds. Then check out the bonus point data, and that will change a lot of peoples minds about never being able to draw. I look at these statistics every year to see how many people draw primo tags from deer all the way down to sheep, and draw with 0 points. It just amazes me and gives me hope, even though I am a resident. Everyone has a chance and us residents can tell you NR stories of all the crazy tags that we've seen drawn with astronomical odds. The best one that I know about is a friend of mine and his dad both drew a desert sheep tag in the same area, the same year, and that area only had 6 tags available. You cannot party for sheep in NV. The son had around 8 points and the dad had over 20+. Talk about hitting the powerball!!

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That's exactly what I'm talking about because no matter when you start applying you have a chance. Yet people like Zim would rather keep crying and whining about not drawing a tag because the wildlife agencies are making it too difficult.

Gr8bawana said:

That's exactly what I'm talking about because no matter when you start applying you have a chance. Yet people like Zim would rather keep crying and whining about not drawing a tag because the wildlife agencies are making it too difficult.

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Gr8bawana, Yet another unprovoked personal attack polluting the forum. Your biatching, crying & whining already got the end game thread locked. Why Randy doesn't take out the trash I don't know. I never even complained about the Nevada draw system! I've drawn two unit 6 deer tags and an archery elk tag I put on a 350" bull. It's been great to me! I just stated the inevitable facts, not an opinion. It's a mathematical fact newbie NV NR odds are getting exponentially worse each year. If you don't see it, I can't help you with that. States have a proven track record, including NV. You are dead wrong if you think the current NV system is not limiting some newbie NR's from buying in. I know 4 personally, and have seen many others post on forums. Yes they have a .000001 chance but they are not willing to dump the license fee + app fees due to the squared point folks ahead of them. It's just that simple. And those guys ahead of them are getting their points squared each year making it an exponentially worse deal to buy in. As I keep saying, with 18 squared points I am sitting very well with the current system (except for the outfitter welfare).

I obviously hope they don't, but I have absolutely zero doubt Nevada will eventually scrap their system to get more newbie money. All you have to do is look and see what other states have done with their similar situations. If you refuse to acknowledge history, then we will agree to disagree.

Idaho by far has the best system, but NV is right behind ID...... hope they don't change it, I put in every year and I don't purchase a point! cause I have a chance..... who care's if its a small chance...... I figure all that money I save in points when I do draw a tag will at least pay for gas and food for that trip.....
Matt

Zim said:

Gr8bawana, Yet another unprovoked personal attack polluting the forum. Your biatching, crying & whining already got the end game thread locked. Why Randy doesn't take out the trash I don't know. I never even complained about the Nevada draw system! I've drawn two unit 6 deer tags and an archery elk tag I put on a 350" bull. It's been great to me! I just stated the inevitable facts, not an opinion. It's a mathematical fact newbie NV NR odds are getting exponentially worse each year. If you don't see it, I can't help you with that. States have a proven track record, including NV. You are dead wrong if you think the current NV system is not limiting some newbie NR's from buying in. I know 4 personally, and have seen many others post on forums. Yes they have a .000001 chance but they are not willing to dump the license fee + app fees due to the squared point folks ahead of them. It's just that simple. And those guys ahead of them are getting their points squared each year making it an exponentially worse deal to buy in. As I keep saying, with 18 squared points I am sitting very well with the current system (except for the outfitter welfare).

I obviously hope they don't, but I have absolutely zero doubt Nevada will eventually scrap their system to get more newbie money. All you have to do is look and see what other states have done with their similar situations. If you refuse to acknowledge history, then we will agree to disagree.

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I agree. I'm just starting to apply for western hunts this winter, and I scratched NV from my list really quick due to the cost vs the odds not being in my favor.

jwilkstn said:

I agree. I'm just starting to apply for western hunts this winter, and I scratched NV from my list really quick due to the cost vs the odds not being in my favor.

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I agree most other western state have better odds for a NR, things are just not as dire as some people try to make it look.

I'm a resident I drew a tag with 27-1 odds with no points. It takes me 4-5 years to draw a nice black powder tag I've only had three tags since I left the junior hunt. I'll be thirty in May. We need to kill more elk. The non residents that buy a licence should come out and kill a lion or two. I would greatly appreciate that.