Draw Odds

[toprut]

I looked at the Nevada draw odds on GoHunt and feel like the odds are a little skewed in the sense that they must include all 5 choices in their model. What I mean to say is this...how many of the 2nd thru 5th choices are actually drawn? I posed this question straight to them but hey haven't answered. Say for instance we take a look at Unit 221-222 early bull...GoHunt says 2480 NR apps and the NDOW site says 513 unsuccessful 1st choice apps. All of these apps are for 9 tags last year. How many of the 9 were 2nd-5th choice or were they all just 1st choice apps whereas rendering the 2nd-5th choices for this unit futile?

Does anyone else feel like this is the case too?

P.S. Can the application services that do it for you and charge a fee please let me know which units y'all are planning on dumping all of your clients in this year so I can know in advance not to apply in that unit? LOL...it's pretty obvious that this is what they do.

Thomas -

Here are some specifics on the hunt in your original question. That specific hunt was about the 5th hardest nonresident elk hunt in the state to draw in 2016 (depending on your bonus pt total). After seeing and working with the Nevada data, it is clear that a huge pile of applicants are placing 1st thru 5th hunt choices in an order that isn't optimal. And it's easy to understand why given that good Nevada draw data is difficult to find. The % of 2 - 5th choices that are wasted and have no shot at being drawn is big. If a simulation doesn't specifically take that into account, it will be materially incorrect.

BTW, the 513 unsuccessful 1st choice apps on the NV published report is actually applications that had the Unit 221-222 early bull hunt as first choice, and did not draw ANY choice (1st thru 5th).