goHUNT.com updated drawing odds

Big Fin · Dec 29, 2016

For those who already subscribe, you got the email that goHUNT has updated their draw odds in a few new ways. Amazing to look at the AZ non-resident odds and compare those against odds provided by other services and see how difficult the AZ odds really are. Kind of like NV last year, when goHUNT finally solved the riddle of how to do all five choices for all people in the draw, it showed just how remote the odds were.

I think those who apply in AZ are going to be doing some adjustment to their strategies after looking at these odds. I know I am.

New features added.

1. Added Arizona for both 2015 and 2016. This reflects the change to the bonus pass round for non-residents in 2016.

2. Updated 2016 odds for all states they list.

3. Added year-by-year (2015 and 2016) for all states they list.

4. For those interested in the Guided pools of NV and NM, they have added odds for those draws, also.

Link here - https://www.gohunt.com/read/INSIDER/2017-draw-odds-now-updated-includes-arizona

If you do decide to sign up for the INSIDER systems, using promo code RANDY will get you a $50 Sportsman Warehouse Gift Card.

jrabq · Jan 5, 2017

I was waiting for them to get AZ done, it was an eye-opener. I knew some of the NR odds provided by other services were inflated because the don't accurately account for the 10% NR cap (and perhaps for other reasons), but wow many were 5-10X too high!

Big Fin · Jan 5, 2017

jrabq said:
I was waiting for them to get AZ done, it was an eye-opener. I knew some of the NR odds provided by other services were inflated because the don't accurately account for the 10% NR cap (and perhaps for other reasons), but wow many were 5-10X too high!

Agreed. I went and looked at the state drawing recaps to confirm the differences could be that big. Now I see how that could be the case if there are that many non-residents applying for certain units. Glad they got that up before the AZ deadline next month. Shows how many AZ hunts are closer to being a preference point system for NRs than a bonus point system.

jrabq · Jan 5, 2017

Big Fin said:
Shows how many AZ hunts are closer to being a preference point system for NRs than a bonus point system.

Yes, AZ had certainly evolved to be a pure preference point system for all of the high demand hunts. But with the "new" 2016 rule capping the NR "bonus pass" round at 5% the draw at least got nudged back towards a "bonus point system" for about 1/2 the potential NR tags. So I now have a ~0.2% chance of drawing strip deer tag, instead of 0%, yippee!

Okbow87 · Jan 5, 2017

jrabq said:
Yes, AZ had certainly evolved to be a pure preference point system for all of the high demand hunts. But with the "new" 2016 rule capping the NR "bonus pass" round at 5% the draw at least got nudged back towards a "bonus point system" for about 1/2 the potential NR tags. So I now have a ~0.2% chance of drawing strip deer tag, instead of 0%, yippee!

So you're saying there's a chance!

WapitiBob · Jan 5, 2017

The number of Non Residents per point level, per hunt code is a real eye opener. The 15% will cycle resident thru at an alarming rate. I just had a discussion on another forum with a resident who scoffed at GoHunts odds for his unit 9 choice. They listed it at 100% with 9 points, he thought maybe 10%. I showed him the numbers and the process and he's at 100% (with usual caveats). 9 points to draw a unit 9 archery tag in the Bonus Pass is a pretty good deal for a resident. There is a 30+ year wait for a NR at the same point level today.

NoWiser · Jan 6, 2017

Even at 5 points, my odds at the low-tier unit I'm after are depressing as heck. Given the rate of point creep I expect to see it will probably be at least 7-8 more years and $1,200 + more in nonrefundable licenses to draw. Ouch. I was born 10 years too late to get into this western hunting gig.

Bigjav · Feb 5, 2017

How much does the gohunt service cost? I would like to see what my chances are at drawing an elk tag in a unit that actually has animals and more importantly which ones to steer clear of like Arizona

JFlem · Feb 5, 2017

Go Hunt costs $150 a year but if you use the promo code you get a $50 gift card.

Baerman · Feb 6, 2017

I signed up about after Randy's last gohunt blast. It's a nice tool that helps you quickly narrow down opportunities. I think it will help me manage points across multiple states and decide when and where to apply so I don't get overextended unless it's for a phenomenal tag. I'm still trying to figure out all of it's tools. I wish Filter 2.0 included land ownership and wilderness mapping. I'm sure they will have it in the near future though as I've already seen many updates made in the short time that I've had it. The articles are a great resource as well.

I did feel like I got kicked in the gut when looking up the odds of Nevada though!!! I've thought I should have drawn antelope the last couple years but now I'm seeing why I haven't. I'll be reconsidering my application choices this year.

Thomas11 · Feb 6, 2017

So how exactly do they calculate the random odds for Az for NR? It seems they just use the available tags for NR(5%)divided by total applicants? I see no other way they could get so low of odds otherwise in the random part

WapitiBob · Feb 6, 2017

I can't speak to GoHunt specifically as I haven't talked to them about it, but another odds provider whom I have talked to, and can duplicated GoHunts odds, has a draw simulator program that takes into account the number of applicants and their points at each point level, and determines the associated odds for each of those point levels.

Steelhead · Feb 6, 2017

Those online things are great estimators of odds. If you really wanna boil it down, it is best to go the the states websites and figure it out yourself.

npaden · Feb 6, 2017

Thomas11 said:
So how exactly do they calculate the random odds for Az for NR? It seems they just use the available tags for NR(5%)divided by total applicants? I see no other way they could get so low of odds otherwise in the random part

It will depend on your points. If you have 10 points you have ten times the odds of someone with 1 point in Arizona on the random side.

They have more detailed drawing information that shows applications by point level that help figure out your odds. On some of the late rifle hunts I'm starting to creep up into the 10% odds with my 6 points vs. with one point my odds for the same hunt would be under 2%.

WapitiBob · Feb 6, 2017

Steelhead said:
Those online things are great estimators of odds. If you really wanna boil it down, it is best to go the the states websites and figure it out yourself.

You won't figure out AZ, NV, and NM by yourself unless you create a program and have all the data. "All the data" doesn't exist for Wyoming.

Thomas11 · Feb 6, 2017

WapitiBob said:
You won't figure out AZ, NV, and NM by yourself unless you create a program and have all the data. "All the data" doesn't exist for Wyoming.

This is very true. I'm not sure as much as I've thought about it if there's an exact way to get your true odds with states like AZ NV NM. I'm not sure how u predict the ppl the second choice and third choice app that draw out w their first choice. There's other variables like in AZ for the random part NR and R are lumped together for all the random tags. But there is still the 10% cap in place for NR. Anyway these simulators might be the best there is. In WY landowner tags affect the number of NR random tags given out that they don't publish anywhere if I'm not mistaken? And several other quirky things there that u don't know at time of the draw or just by reading their website

goHUNT.com updated drawing odds

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