Hey, draw odds dorks…

[rmyoung1]

I’m one of you, and I’m curious if anyone has out there has taken this next level and subscribed to both toprut and gohunt. How do the draw odds calculations compare? I’m only on toprut, and I swear there are some crazy weird numbers out there that I have a tough time believing, particularly when it comes to the nonresident MT sheep/goat odds. Anyone compare the two? If so, anyone brave enough to admit it on a public forum?

 

[grizzly_]

I've run a cumulative draw odds spreadsheet for all my apps for well over a decade. Then they update after each Unsuccessful to the odds of drawing a remaining tag so I always know in "real time."

I have almost as much fun doing app season as I do hunting. Almost.

 

[Desk Pop]

I've run a cumulative draw odds spreadsheet for all my apps for well over a decade. Then they update after each Unsuccessful to the odds of drawing a remaining tag so I always know in "real time."

I have almost as much fun doing app season as I do hunting. Almost.

That's legit

 

[Desk Pop]

I’m one of you, and I’m curious if anyone has out there has taken this next level and subscribed to both toprut and gohunt. How do the draw odds calculations compare? I’m only on toprut, and I swear there are some crazy weird numbers out there that I have a tough time believing, particularly when it comes to the nonresident MT sheep/goat odds. Anyone compare the two? If so, anyone brave enough to admit it on a public forum?
View attachment 320467

I don't have either of those, but Huntin' Fool's NR MT sheep and goat odds that they just posted online are waaaayyyy off.

Maybe they have the same statistician.

 

[rmyoung1]

I don't have either of those, but Huntin' Fool's NR MT sheep and goat odds that they just posted online are waaaayyyy off.

Maybe they have the same statistician.

I believe HF uses toprut, and those are the numbers that triggered my questions. I'd love to see/hear what gohunt says about those NR odds and compare the two. Toprut has the odds virtually identical for R & NR for many MT goat hunts in Region 3, for example.

 

[BuzzH]

I believe HF uses toprut, and those are the numbers that triggered my questions. I'd love to see/hear what gohunt says about those NR odds and compare the two. Toprut has the odds virtually identical for R & NR for many MT goat hunts in Region 3, for example.

They are the same for both R and NR.

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

I've run a cumulative draw odds spreadsheet for all my apps for well over a decade. Then they update after each Unsuccessful to the odds of drawing a remaining tag so I always know in "real time."

I have almost as much fun doing app season as I do hunting. Almost.

 

[WildWill]

View attachment 320486

 

[BuckRut]

What's your basis for these numbers being way off or unbelievable? Just asking because with the way the system works its nearly impossible to shoot from the hip looking at the data to figure out a legitimate draw odds number.

 

[grizzly_]

View attachment 320486

Hey, if the orthopedic shoe fits...

 

[MTGunner]

I purchased all of my resident tags and applied for sheep at region 1 HQ. Was told that resident bonus points are squared. Did not inquire if nonresident points are squared. Do not have that distinct information. If not, how would resident vs. nonresident opportunities be equal? MTG

 

[rmyoung1]

What's your basis for these numbers being way off or unbelievable? Just asking because with the way the system works its nearly impossible to shoot from the hip looking at the data to figure out a legitimate draw odds number.

Well, a couple of things: The toprut figures changed significantly from 2022 to 2023, more than I would suspect from just another year of draw system maturation. Also, I believe the NR regional cap has to make some sort of material impact on NR draw odds for sheep/goat even in a situation like Region 3 goat where the region’s 10% cap exceeds the permits available in individual districts, thus allowing NRs to consume a high proportion of a single district’s quota potentially.

I’d like to compare what GoHunt says vs toprut, but I can’t tell my wife I’m such a nerd that I needed another $150 hunting application service to verify the data of the first one. I guess I’m hoping there’s a nerd out there without a wife.

 

[grizzly_]

 

[PRO MO]

I’m one of you, and I’m curious if anyone has out there has taken this next level and subscribed to both toprut and gohunt. How do the draw odds calculations compare? I’m only on toprut, and I swear there are some crazy weird numbers out there that I have a tough time believing, particularly when it comes to the nonresident MT sheep/goat odds. Anyone compare the two? If so, anyone brave enough to admit it on a public forum?
View attachment 320467

I just checked them both for the unit i applied for in montana for Mountain goats, and they were identical - 4.2%. and for sheep both said 1.6%.

 

[Mallardsx2]

You don't have to give away your hard-earned money to have someone tell you that your odds suck about as bad as last year. lol

 

[BuckRut]

Well, a couple of things: The toprut figures changed significantly from 2022 to 2023, more than I would suspect from just another year of draw system maturation. Also, I believe the NR regional cap has to make some sort of material impact on NR draw odds for sheep/goat even in a situation like Region 3 goat where the region’s 10% cap exceeds the permits available in individual districts, thus allowing NRs to consume a high proportion of a single district’s quota potentially.

I’d like to compare what GoHunt says vs toprut, but I can’t tell my wife I’m such a nerd that I needed another $150 hunting application service to verify the data of the first one. I guess I’m hoping there’s a nerd out there without a wife.

Here's the kicker. Until the NR quota is met everyone has the same odds R or NR. It's all one big pot until the last NR tag that puts if over the limit is drawn. At that point all the NR are kicked out and the draw continues.

 

[rmyoung1]

Here's the kicker. Until the NR quota is met everyone has the same odds R or NR. It's all one big pot until the last NR tag that puts if over the limit is drawn. At that point all the NR are kicked out and the draw continues.

Yeah, I know. That cap makes things complicated.

 

[BuckRut]

I went to take a look and HF and Toprut are showing the 10% NR quota as the same number as the total quota. Could be one reason for some inflated NR odds if they are higher than they should be.

 

[SAJ-99]

Toprut looks wrong and I can't really figure out what the calc is. The GoHunt stuff wasn't much better, but I cancelled my subscription. I felt they both overestimated the odds. The good part is they have last years breakdown if you want to do it yourself. You can see the Mtn Goat screen shot below and quickly tell it is not right.

 

[PRO MO]

here's Gohunt's breakdown of the same unit for nonresident applicants and tags drawn.