goHUNT INSIDER draw odds

[Zim]

I drew a deer tag with 3 points in 2012 and had to turn it back in due to a conflict, then in 2013 drew an elk tag with 4 points. If you are in the draw, it can happen.

Of course, I also drew an elk tag in 2007. Doesn't matter. It's still all about value. I'm just saying for a young guy starting out you have to ask yourself if Nevada is a good ROI for $200/year. Quite a steep price for the remote odds. And with the squared points ahead of him, each year it becomes a much, much worse value to enter at the ground floor. There's such a thing as stupid money.

I got in early enough in the squared points deal where I'm not handicapped near as bad. I know if I were a rookie right now, there's no way in hell I'd be jumping in for $200/year. I see Nevada throwing the invested hunters under the bus at some point, like Arizona just did.

Even at 17 points I don't consider this a good value and I want out. Last year I targeted mid-tier units, and after finally seeing the real odds, I intend to further lower my sights. I will allow the masses to chase the top five.

 

[dan.kirkpatrick]

wow,if these are the true odds,ill pretty much need to apply for the easy to draw units to even have a slight chance of drawing anytime soon.at least for my 4th and 5th choices

 

[poormanslam]

So Big Fin did Go Hunt take every person with a specific hunt number (let's say 231 for deer) listed as any Choice 1-5 then look at each individual's point total square it add one add all of those totals up then Divide by the number of tags available?

 

[Big Fin]

So Big Fin did Go Hunt take every person with a specific hunt number (let's say 231 for deer) listed as any Choice 1-5 then look at each individual's point total square it add one add all of those totals up then Divide by the number of tags available?

Yes. That is how they know the true odds. They had to work with NV DOW to get the data set that included all of that information. You can just use the first choice information that is published on the NV DOW site, as all the other services did.

I knew it would make a difference on the odds, but I had no idea it would be that dilutive to my chances.

 

[poormanslam]

So that is a good start. Don't they then have to weight the process based on an individual's points? In other words if you have 10 points and I have 15 I have a greater chance of drawing a lower random number. Correct?

 

[Big Fin]

So that is a good start. Don't they then have to weight the process based on an individual's points? In other words if you have 10 points and I have 15 I have a greater chance of drawing a lower random number. Correct?

Read Post #7. Yes, it has to be weighted for all applicants, their squared bonus points and their five choices.

 

[Zim]

Even with 17 squared points, I ended up omitting top tier hunts for ALL species. Picked one mid-tier hunt for 1st choice. Then listed low tier hunts for everything else. Haha, that's pretty sad, but based on the numbers, the only realistic long-term plan for me. IMHO anyone jumping in on the ground floor is crazy.

 

[Bugle 'Em In]

Zim...once you draw your NV tag are you out of the game there?

 

[EBOLAVIRS]

Ya those odds are pretty revealing and depressing. You could buy a pretty good land owner tag in Colorado cheaper than it would be to draw a coveted Nevada muley tag after 10-15 years of paying for a license. I wonder if Nevada will continue giving GoHunt or others the information, I bet it discourages a good number of people from getting started in Nevada.

 

[Gr8bawana]

One thing that made the odds so terrible was when NV changed the drawing to where you you could apply for each species and only pay the app fee unless you draw the tag. Before that we had to pay upfront the full price for tag and app fee for every animal and then wait a few months for a refund minus the app fee.

 

[LopeHunter]

Are other states that square points yet offer a small number of tags vs. applications in the same mess? Not only are you at a disadvantage by starting even one year after a point system launches which is the case with all systems but with Nevada you actually are in increasing worse shape each year than the prior for a decade or more. Montana squares. Washington squares.

 

[OpenCountry]

Sounds like what Montana did with their moose, sheep and mountain goat tags a while back....

 

[Big Fin]

Are other states that square points yet offer a small number of tags vs. applications in the same mess? Not only are you at a disadvantage by starting even one year after a point system launches which is the case with all systems but with Nevada you actually are in increasing worse shape each year than the prior for a decade or more. Montana squares. Washington squares.

Yes, to some degree. But, not as bad as NV, where they look at five choices before going on to the next applicant.

 

[Gr8bawana]

Yes, to some degree. But, not as bad as NV, where they look at five choices before going on to the next applicant.

These miniscule odds for non-residents don't seem to dissuade many of them from applying. Theoretically any of those tags can be draw with zero bonus points. Does it happen very often? No, but that doesn't stop them from trying.

 

[Zim]

Zim...once you draw your NV tag are you out of the game there?

Actually there is no answer to that question. I used to plan for it, but when I realized how rampant state's unscrupulous bait-n-switching attorney legislators and corrupt wildlife boards have become, "changing" rules to screw invested point holding sportsmen, I came to the conclusion there would be no ethical states left not moving their goalposts in the middle of the game by the time I cash points. (Except maybe Iowa & NH). So I'll evaluate each state for bailing if and when I draw, if ever. Of course when there's multiple species involved, that would complicate things, zero for one species/24 for another within the same state. But yes I'd really like to burn & bail in NV, UT, OR & ME. WY, CO, AZ I'd manage long term. I'd be especially willing to forfeit a lot of OR & UT points to get out of those scams.