goHUNT INSIDER draw odds

[Big Fin]

Many of you have heard me talking about the INSIDER service from goHUNT.com. They just loaded up the Nevada draw odds and it is a real eye opener for me.

If you look at the Nevada odds posted by NDOW, they list only the first choice applicants for each hunt code and any person who drew the hunt code as a second-fifth choice. As a result, you have no idea how many high point holders are making these units their second-fifth choice, something that dramatically changes your odds.

For those who apply in NV, you know that all five choices are looked at before going on to the next application. That has always made it very complicated to get correct draw odds. The state of NV has provided goHUNT the hunt code choices for every hunter, from first choice to last choice. With that information, goHUNT has used to determine what the true odds were last year, reflecting all hunt choices, by point level of each applicant.

Now having played with the NV odds posted by goHUNT, I can see I was WAY overestimating my chances of getting a tag in some of the high to medium demand units. Looks like I will be putting a lot more of my effort on medium to low demand units. I've spent many hours this winter planning NV apps for me and guest hunters. Back to the drawing board after seeing this new information. The other information I had relied upon was very incomplete and as such, very incorrect.

Here are the states for which drawing odds are available. They are still working on AZ, due to the change AZ made this year. They think those will be ready before the deer/sheep drawing in June.



If you decide to subscribe to the INSIDER system, use the promo code HUNTTALK and receive a Gerber Vital scalpel blade knife.

http://www.gohunt.com/

 

[NoWiser]

Funny you should post this, Randy. I was just looking at Nevada on their site this morning and wondering when they'd get draw odds up.

All I can say is, wow, those are some nasty odds. And I thought NM was bad! I've really been trying to decide whether or not it's worth starting to build points in Nevada. It looks like a decade's worth of points will hardly get you 1 in 20 odds in most units. For the cost of the hunting license every year, I'm thinking I will have to pass on Nevada as a state to add to my long term hunting plan. That is, unless someone can convince me otherwise.

 

[Zim]

Randy,
I have a lot of points in many states including 17 for all species in Nevada. This year has been a little nerve wrecking for me managing these. I've always known I had no idea what my real chances were in NV, given the squared points and 5 choices for applicants. I assumed my odds were still dismal. Just didn't know HOW dismal. So I've been considering adding this GoHunt to assist in my decision making. Can you tell me if their format can provide real NV odds taking into account my specific point pool of 17? I've subscribed to HF for 20 years and occasionally Eastman's, Thanks.

 

[Big Fin]

Randy,
I have a lot of points in many states including 17 for all species in Nevada. This year has been a little nerve wrecking for me managing these. I've always known I had no idea what my real chances were in NV, given the squared points and 5 choices for applicants. I assumed my odds were still dismal. Just didn't know HOW dismal. So I've been considering adding this GoHunt to assist in my decision making. Can you tell me if their format can provide real NV odds taking into account my specific point pool of 17? I've subscribed to HF for 20 years and occasionally Eastman's, Thanks.

Yes, it will take into account the prior year information of applicants at all point levels, including your point level.

 

[Thomas11]

How do they calculate NM odds? I saw a sample where it looked they basically calculated it for each hunt choice, but that isn't really your odds, as it would vary from yr to yr and u never know where the tags will actually be drawn within the hunt choices. So the only true way I know to calculate NM is add up all hunt choices within a group(say NR pool) and divide by available for that pool. I understand your odds are a little better than this as some the second and third choice applicants will have drawn their first and second choice. NV seems to have this same issue as to how to figure out true odds but with some complexity due to five choices and bonus points squared. For example, eastmans list NM odds as only the first choice divided by number of tags which grossly overstates y true odds

 

[Zim]

I just became an "insider" tonight haha. I'm in there now getting a learnin.

 

[Big Fin]

How do they calculate NM odds? I saw a sample where it looked they basically calculated it for each hunt choice, but that isn't really your odds, as it would vary from yr to yr and u never know where the tags will actually be drawn within the hunt choices. So the only true way I know to calculate NM is add up all hunt choices within a group(say NR pool) and divide by available for that pool. I understand your odds are a little better than this as some the second and third choice applicants will have drawn their first and second choice. NV seems to have this same issue as to how to figure out true odds but with some complexity due to five choices and bonus points squared. For example, eastmans list NM odds as only the first choice divided by number of tags which grossly overstates y true odds

They use the Monte Carlo Simulation method, run 100K times.

It results in historical probabilities, but cannot be predictive, as we know that not everyone is going to apply for the same hunt codes for all their same choices every year. But, it is as close to anything as possible.

To do it properly, you need the entire application set for every applicant. In the case of NM, you need all three choices for each hunter. In the case of NV, you need all five choices for each hunter.

I'm oversimplifying here, but you run that simulation usually a minimum of 10K times. The law of large numbers shows you the most probable result. The more times you run it, the greater the degree of confidence in your simulation.

That said, since the tag draw only happens once, there are always going to be some outlyers for every single time the draw takes place. By simulating the draw 100K times, it shows what was most likely to happen, based on the hunt codes of every hunter the prior year.

Hope that helps. I have compared the NV odds to the odds provided by those services that use the "Simplified odds" disclaimer. It is vastly different. By a factor of 5X on some of the higher demand hunts. The reason the odds are so much worse on high demand hunts is that the simplified systems are only showing first choices. Well, the guys with tons of points are usually focused on the same highly recommended units, given they don't want to burn points on what is perceived a lower demand unit.

So, in a state like NV, the published odds or simplified odds may show 300 people applying for an elk tag in Unit 111-115. In reality, since NV allows you five choices before looking at the next guy, just about every other applicant has that same unit as one of their five choices. So, there are really 5X as many applicants in the running for a tag than what is published. Since NV squares points, it skews it even worse for low point holders.

I've spent a lot of hours working on my NV plan this winter. Most of it went in the trash after seeing the true odds a few days ago. Time to hit the reset button on NV.

 

[rmyoung1]

So I've been thinking about beginning to apply in NV. Never have before, so this discussion is timely. Can you guys help me with a question? I'll pose a hypothetical scenario to help.

Let's say a nonresident in NV applies for unit X as a third choice with 5 points. Let's say he draws the tag in unit X. Let's say the NV draw odds report lists 10 applicants for Unit X with 2 successful. Is his application, since he was successful, accounted for in the draw odds reports on the state's website under the "successful" column with 5 points? Or is his application ignored in the report since he didn't apply for Unit X as a first choice?

I guess what I'm wondering is... Are only first choice applicants listed in the reports or are successful applicants, regardless of choice, also included?

Thanks for the help!

 

[Big Fin]

So I've been thinking about beginning to apply in NV. Never have before, so this discussion is timely. Can you guys help me with a question? I'll pose a hypothetical scenario to help.

Let's say a nonresident in NV applies for unit X as a third choice with 5 points. Let's say he draws the tag in unit X. Let's say the NV draw odds report lists 10 applicants for Unit X with 2 successful. Is his application, since he was successful, accounted for in the draw odds reports on the state's website under the "successful" column with 5 points? Or is his application ignored in the report since he didn't apply for Unit X as a first choice?

I guess what I'm wondering is... Are only first choice applicants listed in the reports or are successful applicants, regardless of choice, also included?

Thanks for the help!

What NDOW publishes is First Choice only, PLUS any successful applicants at second through fifth choice.

 

[rmyoung1]

What NDOW publishes is First Choice only, PLUS any successful applicants at second through fifth choice.

Thanks, Randy. That's what I'm after. I appreciate it!

 

[Flatrock]

WOWZERS. Just took a look at my draw odds. I'm 32 with 5 points. I feel like I might need some luck to draw ONE elk tag in my life. I don't see how I could possibly draw 2 without a crazy amount of good luck. The draw odds combined with the 10 year wait period make for a bleak picture.

 

[okie archer]

It is almost overwhelming trying to figure out this stuff. This thread is only talking about two states. And to think of trying to understand multiple species in multiple states. I've been working on a log book for two years now and still don't have a solid gameplan on long-term hunting strategy.

 

[CodyCass]

This information is immensely valuable. For years I have been playing the points game in most of the western states. As I've aged and my financial situation has improved I've added states/species (as many of you know buying points/applying for hunts quickly adds up). This year I was planning on adding Nevada to my points list... Well after viewing the odds just posted by GoHunt I think I'm better off investing that money in some OTC tags or upgrading some gear the next umpteen years it would take to draw a tag there.

 

[Thomas11]

Just my opinion, but I think WY, NM,AZ, and lower end units in UT all provide a decent chance at a tag in a relative short term for not a huge investment in money and also have a quality hunt. This would be my suggestion to guys gettin into the point game. States like NV too expensive and extremely low tags given out=not much chance of drawing for y investment. There's not much left except Oregon and I don't feel the trophy quality potential is worth the investment there either. If u don't draw the 4 states I mentioned, u can always pick up a tag in CO or MT and have a great hunt there with a little luck and determination!

 

[Zim]

WOWZERS. Just took a look at my draw odds. I'm 32 with 5 points. I feel like I might need some luck to draw ONE elk tag in my life. I don't see how I could possibly draw 2 without a crazy amount of good luck. The draw odds combined with the 10 year wait period make for a bleak picture.

This was one of my lucky draws back in 2007 I drew archery elk unit 111-222 with 6 points. At that time I calculated my odds at around 5% but it probably more like .5% these days. But best hunt of my life. Passed on two legit 400 type bulls before scoring a 350". Randy Ulmer killed his giant there the year before. Ha I know the canyon.

So there's some free hope for ya!

 

[David Gough]

Need luck in the gambling state

I think I used all my luck last year. Drew a 121 late archery buck tag with zero points and killed my very first deer Looking at some of the NR odds makes me cringe.

Part of me wants to move to Idaho, Montana, or Wyoming for better resident hunting opportunities....the other part of me doesn't want to lose my bonus points, resident status, or the fishing quality of Pyramid Lake!

Good luck to everyone in the draw.

 

[dan.kirkpatrick]

wow,odds r worse than I thought,dang im already into Nevada $1200 + and climbing over last 6 years,,looks like I better revamp my list of choices and scrap the top units

 

[jryoung]

Well they say the truth hurts.....this was no exception. Was hoping some draws in my neighboring would be 40% and climbing. Now it looks like I'm several years out for anything other than deer.

 

[Zim]

Dang finally got around to calculating and the best odds I had for Calif sheep with 17 pts. was .2%, Nelson sheep with 17 pts. was .7%, deer with 8 pts. 4.6%, and pronghorn with 17 pts. 15%. If I were a young guy just getting in the game, I'd have to pass getting involved here. Too much for too little.

 

[jabber]

I drew a deer tag with 3 points in 2012 and had to turn it back in due to a conflict, then in 2013 drew an elk tag with 4 points. If you are in the draw, it can happen.