Do bonus points matter?

[brownbear932008]

I do think over time Montana has went to a fair system that will reward consistant people putting in. I still love the way Idaho breaks up all the numbers by forcing to pick a specific animal instead of putting in for all at once like most states. Not sure there is a perfect system out there. But a straight up draw OIL tag system sounds best all around. I feel in the long run these point systems are gonna really hurt our young hunters who want to be in the woods and can't b/c they can't get a tag for papa who has been in for 20 years. I hate the thought of that even though I am getting these points every year myself in hopes of drawing a once in a lifetime tag.

 

[LopeHunter]

In the example below, not many people in the draw with over 2 points. If you think of each person have a certain number of ping pong balls then a lot of the ping pong balls in the hopper are owned by low point applicants. That would explain why low number applicants were so successful "as a group."

With the sheep example, lots of high point applicants thus most of the hopper is filled with their ping pong balls.

MTMIller this is what is happening in the elk zone I have applied for since I started 8 years ago. It is funny how this all changes with the numbers of tag/applicants ect. It is totally opposite of what the sheep hunting district you put up implied. And this was 2012 and pretty much normal for the district. Usually 1 tag or so goes to someone with higher points there. Same format first row point #s, second row apps, third row actually drawn apps. I have seen this totally change with more tag numbers and apps in a district.



## 50 3
0 35 1
1 14 0
2 12 0
3 3 0
4 1 0
5 2 0
6 2 0
7 1 0
9 1 0

 

[mdunc8]

MTMIller this is what is happening in the elk zone

## 50 3
0 35 1
1 14 0
2 12 0
3 3 0
4 1 0
5 2 0
6 2 0
7 1 0
9 1 0

That's why it's better than a true preference point system. It still gives everyone a chance at drawing.

 

[rmyoung1]

MTMIller this is what is happening in the elk zone I have applied for since I started 8 years ago. It is funny how this all changes with the numbers of tag/applicants ect. It is totally opposite of what the sheep hunting district you put up implied. And this was 2012 and pretty much normal for the district. Usually 1 tag or so goes to someone with higher points there. Same format first row point #s, second row apps, third row actually drawn apps. I have seen this totally change with more tag numbers and apps in a district.



## 50 3
0 35 1
1 14 0
2 12 0
3 3 0
4 1 0
5 2 0
6 2 0
7 1 0
9 1 0

Understand, though, that while that is interesting that it shook out that way in the year you cited, it will probably not continue that way especially with the new squaring of points. The guy with 9 points who didn't draw will have 101 chances in the next draw. The 47 applicants who didn't participate in the points program and didnt draw plus the 34 applicants who didnt draw with 0 points will only have 115 chances COMBINED next year. So the 1 unlucky guy at the top will have virtually the same odds as the 81 applicants at the bottom. It pays to play.

 

[TOM IN TENNESSEE]

Since you Resident Hunters already get a break by gouging us none residents on all license costs, you shud applaud the points system which keeps us applying instead of saying fugg it and thereby causing your license fees to go up!

 

[LopeHunter]

Point creep develops when the pool of tags is much smaller than the pool of applicants.

In the first year of a point system everyone has 1 point. The next year, most have 2 points. Effectively, each year the max point holders are setting the pace for points needed for the best units and the remaining applicants consider holding out for the better units or "buring" their years' of points on a lessor unit.

The best sheep unit might take the max or "max-1" points to draw and if max is 20 points then that is 2 decades of applying without a sheep tag.

A lessor sheep unit might take 15 points to draw. Next year the best unit will need 1 more point as will the lessor unit...that is point creep.

Point creep is less likely to happen when the number of tags is 20% or more of the applicants since on average each applicant can pull a tag every 5 years or less. Look at Wyoming pronghorn and point creep is less of an issue than bighorn sheep since lots of tags relative to pronghorn applicants but very few sheep tags.

I apply in NM and draw a elk or deer or pronghorn tag every other year or so since I am not putting in for the premium tags that have 1 in 50 to 1 in 600 odds. The person in NM that can not draw elk or deer or pronghorn in 15 years of trying...was not good at stats. A point system will not improve their odds much except for the 1st tag of a species...but then they will go to the back of the line with all the young kids that are 10 to 20 points behind the max pool. I call point systems "old geezer welfare" since they screw new hunters simply by having been too young when the initial point system launched.

Not to jack the thread, but what is "Point Creep"?

 

[mdunc8]

Not to jack the thread, but what is "Point Creep"?

Point creep is problem associated with really tough to draw tags in states that use preference points to allocate tags. A true preference point system only awards tags to applicants with the most points. The guys further down the list have no chance to drawing. If the applicant pool is very top heavy then it might take many years for all applicants with max points to get drawn. For example, there might be 200 guys with max points, which let's say is 10 points, vying for 20 tags. Therefore, it will be another 20 years before all the guys with max points have been drawn, which will likely result in someone needing 30 points to draw the tag in the future.

 

[mdunc8]

Since you Resident Hunters already get a break by gouging us none residents on all license costs, you shud applaud the points system which keeps us applying instead of saying fugg it and thereby causing your license fees to go up!

Everyone is a resident somewhere.

 

[TOM IN TENNESSEE]

I started applying for Desert sheep around 20 years too late to hunt one!
But AZ and NV appreciate me still applying....you shud too, Resident, because I help keep your license low.....

 

[BuzzH]

I doubt point systems are what "keep people applying"...

It usually has more to do with people enjoying hunting and the quality of the animals/experience that "keep people applying"

One step further, if the only reason people are applying is because of a point system...I'd rather they not apply...or hunt.

 

[BuzzH]

Point creep is problem associated with really tough to draw tags in states that use preference points to allocate tags. A true preference point system only awards tags to applicants with the most points. The guys further down the list have no chance to drawing. If the applicant pool is very top heavy then it might take many years for all applicants with max points to get drawn. For example, there might be 200 guys with max points, which let's say is 10 points, vying for 20 tags. Therefore, it will be another 20 years before all the guys with max points have been drawn, which will likely result in someone needing 30 points to draw the tag in the future.

....and another nice spin off from that situation is that eventually those with less than max points (who are realizing they'll never draw the best tag) start applying with their points for other units that require less points. So, then a unit that those with say 3-4 less than max had a chance at...are all being taken by guys with 1-2 less than max.

After 20 years, there isnt a unit in the state that takes less than 13-14 points to draw and you never "catch up" to the point pool drawing the tag. When you do catch up, its for the least desirable units.

Preference is hugely slanted to favor those with max points...squaring bonus points is a close second.

 

[BuzzH]

I started applying for Desert sheep around 20 years too late to hunt one!
But AZ and NV appreciate me still applying....you shud too, Resident, because I help keep your license low.....

What?

Yeah, I'm sure the $20 you spend each year on a preference point, and the $150 on a hunting license, is completely floating the AZG&F and the NVDOW...

From the bottom of my heart...thank you for funding a tank of gas.:W::W::W:

 

[IdahoRob]

Since you Resident Hunters already get a break by gouging us none residents on all license costs, you shud applaud the points system which keeps us applying instead of saying fugg it and thereby causing your license fees to go up!

Pretty simple, don't apply if your pi$$ed about being old.

In the grand scheme of things the cost of the tag is just a small portion of the total outlay ofr an out of state hunting trip.

 

[brownbear932008]

This has been a good one so far I have picked up a few things here maybe it will help me cash in someday going into next year with 9 MT. points. I do like the new MT. system much better than the old one. I do not apply for any state that has a true preference point system came into the game to late to even waste my money on those. I think those states will eventually have to do something when people are sitting on 30 points and cant get a primo tag. LOL

 

[rmyoung1]

This has been a good one so far I have picked up a few things here maybe it will help me cash in someday going into next year with 9 MT. points. I do like the new MT. system much better than the old one. I do not apply for any state that has a true preference point system came into the game to late to even waste my money on those. I think those states will eventually have to do something when people are sitting on 30 points and cant get a primo tag. LOL

Hang in there, brownbear. If you have that many points and the trend continues in your chosen district where very few applicants with more than just a few bonus points are applying for the permits, then you should draw that permit soon, statistically speaking. Stay in the game! It'll pay off. And good luck.

 

[danr55]

I don't know how Montana does it, but in Arizona it's can give you a statistical advantage. When the apps are processed, you receive one random number for the app and one for each bonus point. When the draw begins, a random number generator kicks out the number that is used for the starting draw. If there are 37,940 apps and bonus points for the hunt, The random number generator will kick out a number between 1 and 37940 and that will be where the draw starts. If half of those are bonus points, and you elminate them, you wind up with 1 chance in 18970. Using the bonus points you wind up with 10 chances in 37940, or 1:3794. Significantly better odds.