So I have always wondered this about the way MOntana does bonus points. Lets use the 380 tag as an example. So lets assume that 8,000 of the 10,000 people that apply all have ten bonus points. I am curious if there is a math genious out there in oyoa land that has done the math on how this effects your odds. I mean if you and 8000 other guys all have the same points ,therefor 10 chances each, yet some 12 year old kid draws one on his first try every year...do the points get you anywhere other than maintaining status with everyone else and paying for it of course???????
Do bonus points matter?
- Thread starter tazman
- Start date
Without doing any math, I'm convinced about the only thing bonus points really do is make you feel better about not drawing...
PS- I wish all states would go to a systems like NM or ID where it is random every year. No bonus or preference points.
PS- I wish all states would go to a systems like NM or ID where it is random every year. No bonus or preference points.
RUT JUNKEY
Well-known member
I agree, I think a blind draw would be the best. ( but, that won't happen. . .$$$$$ talks)
the nikster
Well-known member
I think there remains a statistical advantage when using points-exactly the reason I do not support the points system and have zero points in all states. I like going into it knowing we all have exactly the same chances.
Straight Arrow
Well-known member
The Montana system odds depend on probability. If you apply for the HD 380 either sex elk tag, your odds are less than one percent, even with lots of bonus points. On the other hand, if you apply for a permit with odds of fifty percent, then having bonus points really makes a difference. So the answer is that it depends on the number of permits available and the number of first choice applicants. That is the reason the charts from the previous season's success numbers and probabilities are printed in the regs. That information allows you to "do the math" in deciding for which permits to apply.
brownbear932008
Well-known member
I agree with StraightArrow this is true I think. Having said that the Idaho system is by far my favorite system hands down it gives people great odds at great tags and it makes one make a choice on what they really want to do. I think all those big 3 tags should be Once in a Lifetime tags also. If Idaho had the same system as Montana with those tag fees it would be a no brainer I would not even think of touching it. I love the way Idaho makes guys choose Elk/Deer/Antelope or Moose,Sheep,Goat. If all states followed this model imagine your chances of drawing awesome tags in different states each year? Instead of hoping for that one shot in a lifetime you may get to hunt goats or sheep in 3 different states in a lifetime which just don't happen.
smarandr
Well-known member
I'm no statistician, but if everyone applying has 10 bonus points it would seem to me that the points don't do you much good at all. Aren't the points supposed to give you and advantage? If everyone has the same number of points then there is no advantage. Is this what's called "point creep"? Eventually it takes max points to draw and everyone in the draw has max points? I'm an Idaho guy so these bonus/preference point systems don't make much sense to me.
Not everyone has the same number of points.
Montana is still a random system, so everyone has a shot, not just max point holders.
BuzzH
Well-known member
My 2 cents...
For starters, I strongly dislike preference point systems, even those like WY has, where a small percentage of the tags are given out in a "random" draw without regard to points.
I think preference point systems unfarily favor those that get in on the ground floor, after that it discriminates very harshly toward youth and new hunters without max points.
That said, the only way to make a preference, or bonus point system, work in your advantage is if you are willing to hunt lesser units and for species that have A LOT of tags. Otherwise, point creep, and many, many, many years of applying under a point system will result in only one tag, best case, unless you live to be 120 years old, then you may get 2 tags.
For things like sheep, moose, goat, and the best deer, elk, and pronghorn tags...point systems do very little good except for the max point holders. Everyone else is at a severe disadvantage.
But, even though I dislike the preference/bonus systems, in a few cases I've made them "work" and have drawn some decent tags.
If my point totals are correct, as of right now, I have 196 points for various species. If point systems work, a person should never have 196 points...
For starters, I strongly dislike preference point systems, even those like WY has, where a small percentage of the tags are given out in a "random" draw without regard to points.
I think preference point systems unfarily favor those that get in on the ground floor, after that it discriminates very harshly toward youth and new hunters without max points.
That said, the only way to make a preference, or bonus point system, work in your advantage is if you are willing to hunt lesser units and for species that have A LOT of tags. Otherwise, point creep, and many, many, many years of applying under a point system will result in only one tag, best case, unless you live to be 120 years old, then you may get 2 tags.
For things like sheep, moose, goat, and the best deer, elk, and pronghorn tags...point systems do very little good except for the max point holders. Everyone else is at a severe disadvantage.
But, even though I dislike the preference/bonus systems, in a few cases I've made them "work" and have drawn some decent tags.
If my point totals are correct, as of right now, I have 196 points for various species. If point systems work, a person should never have 196 points...
Toadslayer
Member
+1 Especially in Montana on hard to draw tags. If you look at the detailed drawing stats for MT, it's amazing how a person with max pts can lose out to someone with 1 or 2 pts.
mdunc8
Well-known member
Yes, it definitely changes the drawing odds. However, it's still luck of the draw for everyone, so some people with plenty of points are going to get screwed while folks with relatively few points are going to get lucky. As Buzz mentioned, it has the greatest influence on odds for tags that typically should be drawn every few years rather than once in a lifetime. It's simple math.
brownbear932008
Well-known member
Yeap I am in this exact boat in MT. trying to get a fairly hard tag to draw and every year I watch as people with 1 or 2 points draw out about 80% of the tags because statistically they are a much larger pool of applicants than people with high point totals. Idaho has the best system going by far. You guys in Idaho really need to fight keeping the system you guys have out there. Seems someone is always trying to oust it on you for the sake of a $$$.
I agree whole heartingly. I started applying in 14 years ago for the once in a life time tags and have drawn a RM Goat, RM Big Horn, and this year Cali Big Horn. My son drew for Goat in his second year. Luck may play a small part, but good research into which hunts have good odds and animals pay off more than luck. Idaho has blocked the points system successfully twice. Hopefully we can continue to do so even though our Fish and Game is fighting budget issues.
2012 Pretty Good MT Sheep District
Points (first column)
applicants (second column)
drawn (third column)
11 616 5
10 397 8
09 274 5
08 220 1
07 211 2
06 222 1
05 221 1
04 230 0
03 296 0
02 312 0
01 324 0
00 429 0
## 118 0
Points (first column)
applicants (second column)
drawn (third column)
11 616 5
10 397 8
09 274 5
08 220 1
07 211 2
06 222 1
05 221 1
04 230 0
03 296 0
02 312 0
01 324 0
00 429 0
## 118 0
BuzzH
Well-known member
Not true at all.
I wish it were as simple as the money, but thats just not anything close to factual.
The reason point systems get passed is because:
1. Theres always a vocal bunch of idiotic hunters who think their odds will improve.
2. Theres another group that whines about "my neighbor always draws _____tag every year and I've been applying for 15 years and never drawn."
Pressure gets applied to the Legislature by these few vocal whiners that never draw, and before you know it, a bill is drafted.
In the meantime, the majority of hunters who HATE a point system, sit on their sorry arses, "too busy to get involved"...but whine after the point systems are passed by the minority.
The various G&F agencies, largely stay out of it, allowing the idiots to pass the point system which gives them the ancillary benefit of being able to charge the same idiot/do-nothing gang for points. Then 10 years down the road, the do-nothing gang finally wakes up, pulls out a calculator, and start realizing the point systems SUCK. They start figuring out fun stuff like: point creep, how many years it will take to draw, those that have drawn realize they'll never draw again, realize how it negatively impacts youth and new hunters, etc. etc.
THAT IS THE REALITY.
Then to ice the cake, hunters bitch that the G&F was behind it and it was all money driven by the G&F. They (G&F)dont have the authority to start a preference/bonus system, it has to be legislated.
Time to quit playing the victim and start taking control of your own wildlife and tag systems. The only group to blame for these systems is OURSELVES. Hunters demanded the systems and by God they got them passed.
End of story.
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rmyoung1
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 12, 2010
- Messages
- 2,340
If this MT permit that you are applying for is a very difficult permit to draw then the example given above where applicants with few points draw many of the tags will be less and less common over time. The simple reason is because of MT's new strategy of squaring points. People who continue to accrue points will have an exponentially greater chance to draw compared to those who aren't playing the points game. Bonus points have always mattered but never as much as they do now in MT. Of course earning points won't ever guarantee you a Missouri River Breaks sheep tag, but 10 years from now your chances will be 100x greater than the guy just entering the drawing with 0 points.
smarandr
Well-known member
Exactly what happened during this legislative session. In this case the whiner had their own pet legislator that drafted a bill. The bill would have compelled F&G to implement a point system that, by law, they already have the authority to implement if they so choose. Fortunately thus far the Commission (and the majority of hunters) are opposed to the idea and it hasn't got any traction.
I went to the legislature this year and spoke with my representatives about the proposed points bill. Two of my representatives were on the Resource committee which would review the bill. Both were against it with the senior representative teliing me they would get the bill put on hold (which eventually happened). I'm not sure how much I influenced the process but I felt much better talking with representatives with votes on the subject.
To the credit of our commisioners, they opposed the point bill from the beginning and were vocal to the legislature about it.
The fight is going to continue in Idaho for many years.
brownbear932008
Well-known member
MTMIller this is what is happening in the elk zone I have applied for since I started 8 years ago. It is funny how this all changes with the numbers of tag/applicants ect. It is totally opposite of what the sheep hunting district you put up implied. And this was 2012 and pretty much normal for the district. Usually 1 tag or so goes to someone with higher points there. Same format first row point #s, second row apps, third row actually drawn apps. I have seen this totally change with more tag numbers and apps in a district.
## 50 3
0 35 1
1 14 0
2 12 0
3 3 0
4 1 0
5 2 0
6 2 0
7 1 0
9 1 0
## 50 3
0 35 1
1 14 0
2 12 0
3 3 0
4 1 0
5 2 0
6 2 0
7 1 0
9 1 0
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HighDesertSage
Well-known member
Not to jack the thread, but what is "Point Creep"?
