For those of you who seem to forget things, I thought I would post this reminded for you. No reason to miss the AZ deadline for elk and antelope. AZ has a "RECEIVED BY" deadline, not a postmarked deadline. And, make sure you mail it to the correct address.
It amazes me how many people look at the draw odds published by research services and think they have a chance to draw, when they actually have no chance to draw. In reality, AZ has become a PREFERENCE POINT SYSTEM for NRs, when it comes to premium units where the 10% NR quota fills in the first pass, or what is called the 20% Bonus Pass.
Here is an example:
Using Unit 9 archery tags in 2009, the 10% NR cap was filled in the 20% pass by the time it got through the people with 14 points.
If you had 15 of more points as a NR, you could draw the tag. If you were at the 14 level, you were not guaranteed the tag as an NR, but as a resident you were guaranteed the tag with 14 points. In fact, residents were guaranteed the tag with 13 points, and some residents got the tag in the 20% bonus pass with 12 points.
Since the NR quota was filled in the 20% bonus pass, anyone with less than 14 points who had Unit 9 archery as a choice on their app, wasted one of their first two choices.
There were 9 NRs with 14 points last year, who did not draw in the 20% pass or the 1st/2nd choice pass. So, this year, they will have 15 points, and if they all apply for Unit 9 again, the NR quota (10% of 100 = 10 tag NR quota) is going to be almost filled with that group who have 15 points.
There were 21 NRs who were in the 13 point pool for Unit 9 last year, none of whom drew. They will have 14 this year, and if things stay the same as last year, only 1 of them will draw before the 10% NR quota is filled. Anyone with 13 or less will not draw, and the odds of being that 1 person who draws with 14 points will be about 7%.
This same scenario holds true for most any of the premium units that the research services recommend. I understand why AZ did the 20% bonus pass rule, but for the premium tags, whether elk, deer, etc., those units are preference point situations for NRs.
Here is how you can tell if your unit is really a Preference Point unit for NRs. Go to this two report and look at the 2009 hunt codes (hopefully you kept your 2009 regs so you know what hunt code is the unit you are considering).
20% Bonus Pass Report - It is the 20% bonus pass report, by hunt code that shows what tags were drawn in the first pass, where 20% of the tags drawn by those with the highest bonus points.
You will see what point level was the place where 100% of the first choice apps were no longer drawn. That is where the NR 10% quota got filled, and any tags awarded to those with lower point totals represent tags allocated to residents not subject to the 10% draw.
My point is, don't waste your apps on units where you have absolutely no chance of drawing, even though the simplified odds shown by research services make you think you have a chance. Reality is, if you aren't in the highest point totals, you don't have a chance in the premium units, if things stay similar to the historical trends of NR applicants.
For a quick overview of AZ drawing process, here is a link to our Arizona Resources Page.
Here is a link to the simplified AZ drawing odds.
Good luck. See you in AZ this year
.
It amazes me how many people look at the draw odds published by research services and think they have a chance to draw, when they actually have no chance to draw. In reality, AZ has become a PREFERENCE POINT SYSTEM for NRs, when it comes to premium units where the 10% NR quota fills in the first pass, or what is called the 20% Bonus Pass.
Here is an example:
Using Unit 9 archery tags in 2009, the 10% NR cap was filled in the 20% pass by the time it got through the people with 14 points.
If you had 15 of more points as a NR, you could draw the tag. If you were at the 14 level, you were not guaranteed the tag as an NR, but as a resident you were guaranteed the tag with 14 points. In fact, residents were guaranteed the tag with 13 points, and some residents got the tag in the 20% bonus pass with 12 points.
Since the NR quota was filled in the 20% bonus pass, anyone with less than 14 points who had Unit 9 archery as a choice on their app, wasted one of their first two choices.
There were 9 NRs with 14 points last year, who did not draw in the 20% pass or the 1st/2nd choice pass. So, this year, they will have 15 points, and if they all apply for Unit 9 again, the NR quota (10% of 100 = 10 tag NR quota) is going to be almost filled with that group who have 15 points.
There were 21 NRs who were in the 13 point pool for Unit 9 last year, none of whom drew. They will have 14 this year, and if things stay the same as last year, only 1 of them will draw before the 10% NR quota is filled. Anyone with 13 or less will not draw, and the odds of being that 1 person who draws with 14 points will be about 7%.
This same scenario holds true for most any of the premium units that the research services recommend. I understand why AZ did the 20% bonus pass rule, but for the premium tags, whether elk, deer, etc., those units are preference point situations for NRs.
Here is how you can tell if your unit is really a Preference Point unit for NRs. Go to this two report and look at the 2009 hunt codes (hopefully you kept your 2009 regs so you know what hunt code is the unit you are considering).
20% Bonus Pass Report - It is the 20% bonus pass report, by hunt code that shows what tags were drawn in the first pass, where 20% of the tags drawn by those with the highest bonus points.
You will see what point level was the place where 100% of the first choice apps were no longer drawn. That is where the NR 10% quota got filled, and any tags awarded to those with lower point totals represent tags allocated to residents not subject to the 10% draw.
My point is, don't waste your apps on units where you have absolutely no chance of drawing, even though the simplified odds shown by research services make you think you have a chance. Reality is, if you aren't in the highest point totals, you don't have a chance in the premium units, if things stay similar to the historical trends of NR applicants.
For a quick overview of AZ drawing process, here is a link to our Arizona Resources Page.
Here is a link to the simplified AZ drawing odds.
Good luck. See you in AZ this year
. 
