Tag Draw System

[PaulRevere]

Curious about what people know or think about the tag draw system. Is it truly random?

I've witnessed people associsted with the hunting community (that tend to have lots of money) draw tags with insurmountable draw odds a couple different times and am curious if the HuntTalk community would like chime in on this.

*This is not meant in anyway to be directed at BigFin...I'm the biggest Randy groupie around!

 

[Deleted member 28227]

I think it's really difficult to figure out what is going on with tags because there are so many loopholes and you never actually see the exact hunt code on the tag. I get the feeling that a lot of people are hunting private, buying landowner vouchers, getting lottery tags at RMEF events, etc. Also if hunting is your business you probably get very good at reading the fine print e.g. BinFin get's 2 bonus points right off the bat in AZ because he did hunters ed there and applies every year and get's the loyalty point.

 

[BuzzH]

I don't think there is any conspiracy. People that are mildly interested may apply in their home state, and maybe a couple other states.

People that have disposable income apply for tags all over the place. They may buy raffle chances. The more they apply, the more they draw.

People with lots of money, they buy tags, landowner, governors, and commission tags.

I fall into the second category, have some disposable income and apply all over, buy raffle chances, etc. I don't think I'm overly lucky, in 36 years of applying, I've drawn 2 moose permits, 1 goat permit, 1 desert sheep, 1 muskox, and 1 oryx tag. Drawn lots of deer, elk, pronghorn, but those are much, much easier to draw.

I think its random.

 

[Oak]

I had a CPW employee comment that me drawing a sheep tag in Colorado was proof that CPW has no control over the draw.

 

[WapitiBob]

The randomness comes up every year on Ifish here in OR. Some believe there is "black magic" at play and an inordinate number of first time or youth draw Sheep tags here. A 60 second review of the draw process tells anybody the "anomaly" can't exist (unless the computer can see the future).
Oregon is the "randomest" system of any western draw. You get a random number when you apply just like every state, but in Oregon we don't go up from zero. Random members of the public pick ping pong balls out of a tumbler, one at a time, to create our 10 digit starting number, per species. So, for it to be "fixed" or some kind of anomaly, the computer would have to see into the future, to see the species seed number, then go back and give you that special random number just above it.

 

[375H&H]

Here's a little experiment to do: flip a coin 50 times and note heads or tails. You will find that it NEVER goes back and forth exactly between heads and tails 25 times, but will stay heads 7 times, then tails 6, etc in ways that you would not think are random.

Also, there was a guy in Wyoming a couple years ago that drew a sheep tag AND won the sheep raffle super tag in the same year. 2 sheep tags in 1 year. I don't think it was fair but I also wish it was my luck.

 

[BuzzH]

Here's a little experiment to do: flip a coin 50 times and note heads or tails. You will find that it NEVER goes back and forth exactly between heads and tails 25 times, but will stay heads 7 times, then tails 6, etc in ways that you would not think are random.

Also, there was a guy in Wyoming a couple years ago that drew a sheep tag AND won the sheep raffle super tag in the same year. 2 sheep tags in 1 year. I don't think it was fair but I also wish it was my luck.

Its legal to have up to 8 ram permits in one year in Wyoming...what's the problem with 2?

 

[375H&H]

Its legal to have up to 8 ram permits in one year in Wyoming...what's the problem with 2?

I don't have a problem other than I wish it were me like I said. I think examples like that are what the OP was referring to when she asked is it truly random.

Hope you are having a great day Buzz!

 

[hank4elk]

Pretty much random in NM,but then again I know folks who constantly hunt prime units over & over and I've never drawn one. I did do real good as NR,but never a true Gila elk tag...yet.
Odds .03+% for them & suppossedly 3-12% at best for me.
& there is the fact NM has been corrupt since before the conquistadors....