News from the center of the universe

[noharleyyet]

Montana Elk Forecast

October 5, 2012.

From Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks:

There are elk in Montana's hills and if the big sky drops some snow hunters could be in for a banner season in many areas.

"Most hunters are going to find elk populations in good physical shape and will benefit from liberal hunting opportunities," said Quentin Kujala, Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks' wildlife sections coordinator in Helena.

"If the weather cooperates, and if hunters do their homework and line up access early where it's needed, we'd expect very good harvest numbers by season’s end in late November."

Montana's general, five-week long, elk hunting season opens Oct. 20. Kujala noted that cold and snowy conditions should lead to elk hunting success, while mild weather usually spells lower elk harvests, despite additional elk-hunting permits and more liberal seasons. "We're all hoping the weather tips to hunters' favor this fall," Kujala said.

Predation on elk by wolves has contributed to some depressed elk populations in parts of western and southwestern Montana. Also, Montana’s forest fires may have changed local elk distributions and access opportunities. Hunters need to understand that some landowners will be busy rebuilding fences and other structures lost to fire this fall. A call ahead of time, and especially an offer to help, would be long appreciated.

For more information on elk hunting in Montana, visit FWP's website at fwp.mt.gov, click "Hunting" then click Hunting Guide.
Here's a regional rundown on what elk hunters can expect this season.

Region 1—Northwestern Montana
Elk populations remain stable. Spring surveys revealed a regional average of 25 calves per 100 cows. More than 3,470 elk were counted during spring helicopter surveys. Hot spots for elk include the lower Clark Fork region and the Bob Marshall Wilderness complex.

Region 2—Western Montana
Elk numbers are generally above the long-term average but the distribution and trend of elk populations raises concerns for the future. Calf production and survival is low in several districts along the border with Idaho and adjoining the Bob Marshall and Scapegoat wilderness areas, where opportunities to hunt antlerless elk are sharply reduced.

To allow bull numbers to rebound, a special permit is required to hunt bull elk in Hunting Districts 250 and 270 (Upper Bitterroot). Elk numbers generally remain high on private lands located east of Missoula, but calf survival was unusually low through last winter.

Region 3—Southwestern Montana
Overall, the milder winter of 2011-2012 led to good calf recruitment, and depending on weather conditions, the harvest could certainly see a notable increase from last year. A hunter's best bet will be in the southwestern part of the region—and in the Helena area—where high numbers are being seen. The same applies to the Shields Valley where hunters should find a healthy population of elk. The upper Gallatin and the Paradise Valley elk numbers are down, while the number of elk in the Gravelly Range remains about the same as last year. The Pioneers and the Elkhorns are at or above average. A word of warning for next year, however: persistent drought conditions could play a factor in both the 2012 harvest and next year’s calf production.

Region 4—Central Montana
Elk populations are solid. The biggest challenge for hunters, whether along the Rocky Mountain Front, central Montana’s island mountain ranges or in the Missouri River Breaks, continues to be finding access.

Regions 5 — South Central Montana
Elk populations are healthy and growing. The numbers, however, are not a harbinger of hunter success. In areas where hunter access is good, elk numbers are low. In most areas where public hunter access is limited, elk numbers are well above FWP's elk management objectives.

Region 6—Northeastern Montana
Biologists say elk numbers are at or above management objectives in most hunting districts. All elk hunting in the Bears Paw Mountains and the Missouri River Breaks is by special permit, which are awarded in the annual drawing. Elk in these areas are most often found in core-habitat areas a mile or more from active roads and other human activity. Hunters should note that elk densities are very low in the general-season hunting area north of U.S. Highway 2.

Region 7—Southeastern Montana
While not typically a hot spot destination, outside of Missouri Breaks, elk here are primarily found on private land. While elk populations are above management objectives in all hunting districts, public hunting access is limited.

 

[shoots-straight]

Such a rosie picture. There's some sales hype in that report.

Elk numbers (compared to when I was a kid) are higher. Compared to the 04-05 years, we are lower in many, if not most regions. In some areas we are a lot lower.
Regions 1 and 2 are at or below objectives, his twist on "long term averages" is funny. Much of the western 1/3 of the state. (Mostly public) has lower elk numbers than we did 7 years ago. Region 3 is lower too. Region 4 is the bright spot, we do have more elk in that region. The rest of the state, like regions 5,6 and 7, varies. The Breaks region has a lot less elk. Last count (2010) had that herd at 2700. It was over 4000 at it's peak around 05. I would guess we're now sitting around 2000 with an additional 1100 B cow tags issued.

I agree with region 6 and 7 for the most part.

 

[Ben Lamb]

But Robert,

According to the elk plan, everything is fine! Just some minor adjustments to be made here and there.

 

[Dinkshooter]

What is with the white hunt areas? N/A?

 

[Ben Lamb]

It's racism.

 

[Elkmagnet]

That's alot more honest than Idaho's map Idaho shows the valley areas as being above objectives on elk to skew the numbers. Unit 38 above objectives Wtf Commissioner?

 

[noharleyyet]

Shoots, I think you're right about state agency' salesmanship

 

[DreaminofMT6X6s]

I certainly didnt scour region 4 this year but I had a good laugh after I read this. 9 days with almost zero elk and horrible weather...yeah this is totally accurate.

 

[buglum]

That map makes me laugh every time I look at it. It should be labelled " Elk Population Objectives: A Ranchers Perspective"..

 

[Lawnboy]

S Region 4 is the bright spot, we do have more elk in that region. .

Oh good I have a rifle tag in this area and hopefully can find something to hunt.