Covid-19 Data, Models, References - NO DISCUSSION

[LWC55]

 

[Bigjay73]

Glad I'm not italian.

 

[LuketheDog]

First of all, I have never seen this ask work on Hunttalk.

It's kind of like saying "no offense, but..." before you go ahead and offend somebody

 

[LWC55]

Some insight into his thinking and analysis. Louisiana had an up tic in deaths that is not following the model. He will evaluate and make changes if needed. He has local people help him to see what may be causing the up tic. I added a note from his discussion below.



‎Douglas G Frank‎ to Dr. Frank Models
25 mins
Just added data, which are tracking well... except the death rate.
So I want to increase the death rate. But let's hold off and do a controlled "thought experiment."
Someone look into this. Is there a rest home that got hit? Or some other peculiar circumstance? If so, then the data told us this. Perfect.

 

[JohnCushman]

It's kind of like saying "no offense, but..." before you go ahead and offend somebody

or....'with all due respect, Sir'

 

[ImBillT]

Investigating the impact of influenza on excess mortality in all ages in Italy during recent seasons (2013/14–2016/17 seasons)

In recent years, Italy has been registering peaks in death rates, particularly among the elderly during the winter season. Influenza epidemics have be…

www.sciencedirect.com

Since people are discussing now...

Influenza and influenza like illnesses killed 24,000 Italians in the 2016/‘17 flue season. I would assume(and could totally wrong) that anytime a new virus comes into existence(which has happened at least five other times in recent history- SARS, MERS, swine flu, bird flu, Ebola) that it has a high infectivity early on because every person it contacts is naive(in the clinical sense). For ME to be convinced that this is something unusual, and significantly worse than any other new cold or flu, it would have to kill WELL OVER 24,000 Italians by summer.

I’m not predicting that this is or isn’t the nightmarish disaster it’s being sold as. I’m trying to put real context on the numbers.

 

[LWC55]

ImBillT. With all do respect, please don't discuss on this thread. Feel free to post links or data. Or start your own discussion thread.
While I agree with most of what you say, I really don't want this to turn into a pissing match like the other thread.

 

[JohnCushman]

bababooey

 

[406dn]

Here is an article from the Business Insider. Plenty of graphs, predictions etc.

They predict that by the end of next week, deaths will exceed 1000/day.

The US is well on the way to having a coronavirus outbreak worse than China's or even Italy's

Cases in the US are rising sharply, and data suggests that only harsh lockdowns — which the US has not adopted wholesale — can slow it down.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[Brandon270]

We will see if this stays true in the coming week.

 

[LWC55]

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.

covid19.healthdata.org

MUCH different projections here. If someone more computer literate than me can copy and paste the models I would appreciate it. I hope these are not right but I'm just looking for the truth. They also break it down by state.

 

[406dn]

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.

covid19.healthdata.org

MUCH different projections here. If someone more computer literate than me can copy and paste the models I would appreciate it. I hope these are not right but I'm just looking for the truth. They also break it down by state.

Hey, you found a better model. Trash the other site, it's not worth looking at.

I doubt that my copy and paste skills are any better than yours. If only my granddaughter was here.

 

[406dn]

You can teach an old dog new tricks

 

[406dn]

 

[406dn]

 

[LWC55]

Douglas G Frank

2 hrs ·

I have a spreadsheet that tracks my progress in the state updates, and alerts me to those I have not updated within 24 hrs. With my N Dakota update, according to my sheet all fifty states have been updated within the last 24 hrs. Phew!

Here is the Big US Model as it currently combines all those models:

I'm rooting for it to be close. We'll know in about 5 hours.

 

[406dn]

You REALLY need to lose that guy. Deaths are climbing 20% day after day. They are not close to cresting. My guess is he will keep modifying his model as data comes in and presto have the right numbers after its all over.

 

[VikingsGuy]

You REALLY need to lose that guy. Deaths are climbing 20% day after day. They are not close to cresting. My guess is he will keep modifying his model as data comes in and presto have the right numbers after its all over.

This guy is clueless - if you predict the end of the world every day, and you live long enough, you will eventually be right.

 

[LWC55]

406dn, I know it is tough not to give opinions and discuss. I want to also. But please don't. It will just get out of hand and devolve to trash as usual. Let's let the data speak for itself. Time will tell very soon. Thanks for posting those other models!

 

[np307]

Well here's some small-scale data. One elderly family member with health problems has tested positive and another has been admitted to the hospital with symptoms though not tested yet.

Both had contact with someone who knew they were exposed but didn't think it was a big deal.