NFL Draft Predictions - a pointless game, but at least it has a $$ prize for the winner

[TheDudeAbides]

Penix at 11 would be my most ideal scenario. I know that's not popular but I want a cool entertaining QB after the white bread family man Kirk Cousins that only cares about Pizza Ranch commercials

I like Penix, but the more you watch him.

The more impressed you are at his receivers bailing him out.

Clean pocket. He is good.

Get him off his spot and he is rough.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Pro Bowl is a tough metric, because Mitch Trubisky was a pro bowler and he is not a franchise QB.

I agree. If you say All-Pro, or multiple Pro Bowls, or Super Bowl appearance, that just makes the odds of “successful” picks even lower.

 

[NR_Hunter]

I like Penix, but the more you watch him.

The more impressed you are at his receivers bailing him out.

Clean pocket. He is good.

Get him off his spot and he is rough.

I’m buying the Penix hype.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1775244098020282603

 

[VikingsGuy]

Complete SWAG probabilities:

Caleb:
Top 5 QB for multiple seasons - 35%
Top 15 QB for multiple seasons - 30%
Serviceable starter - 20%
Bust - 15%

Jaeden:
Top 5 QB for multiple seasons - 15%
Top 15 QB for multiple seasons - 25%
Serviceable starter - 25%
Bust - 35%

Drake:
Top 5 QB for multiple seasons - 30%
Top 15 QB for multiple seasons - 20%
Serviceable starter - 20%
Bust - 30%

JJ:
Top 5 QB for multiple seasons - 5%
Top 15 QB for multiple seasons - 30%
Serviceable starter - 35%
Bust - 30%

Pennix:
Top 5 QB for multiple seasons - 5%
Top 15 QB for multiple seasons - 25%
Serviceable starter - 30%
Bust - 40%

Bo:
Top 5 QB for multiple seasons - 5%
Top 15 QB for multiple seasons - 15%
Serviceable starter - 40%
Bust - 40%

 

[TheDudeAbides]

I’m buying the Penix hype.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1775244098020282603

Chase Daniel is ok. Like Dan Orlovsky, he tends towards sensationalism.

I would prefer the opinions of JT O'Sullivan and he has Penix at 5. (Caleb, Daniels, McCarthy, Maye, Penix, Nix) If you are looking at former NFL QB's as your source of information.

Like I said, Penix from a clean pocket is great PFF Grade of 92 when there is no pressure. When there is pressure his grade drops to 65.

In the NFL there is pressure, so he will have to develop that aspect of his game.

 

[SAJ-99]

I’m buying the Penix hype.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1775244098020282603

That clip has to be sarcasm. First, he misses his safety outlet across the middle and instead chooses to fire the ball down the middle of the field to a well-covered WR. The ball should have been knocked down, at least, or even intercepted. Think of doing that play in NFL? If the rusher doesn't drill him into the turf, the D-back isn't going to miss the ball. That clip certainly isn't evidence of anything.

That said, I watched a lot of Penix last year. It was good to see him healthy. He has skill, but I saw as much bad as good. I can say the same about Caleb Williams (at times he looked terrible). I expect that with any college QB.

Picking a successful NFL QB is almost impossible, as @VikingsGuy stats show. I always thought the one trait is to not panic and know your reads. It helps to have a good OL and to be able to run the ball (no one bites on the run-fake if you can't run the ball effectively). We can name a hundred QBs with the physical skills but they never amounted to anything because of something between the ears. I have speculated that AI will eventually be the best NFL scout.

 

[SAJ-99]

Complete SWAG probabilities:

Caleb:
Top 5 QB for multiple seasons - 35%
Top 15 QB for multiple seasons - 30%
Serviceable starter - 20%
Bust - 15%

Jaeden:
Top 5 QB for multiple seasons - 15%
Top 15 QB for multiple seasons - 25%
Serviceable starter - 25%
Bust - 35%

Drake:
Top 5 QB for multiple seasons - 30%
Top 15 QB for multiple seasons - 20%
Serviceable starter - 20%
Bust - 30%

JJ:
Top 5 QB for multiple seasons - 5%
Top 15 QB for multiple seasons - 30%
Serviceable starter - 35%
Bust - 30%

Pennix:
Top 5 QB for multiple seasons - 5%
Top 15 QB for multiple seasons - 25%
Serviceable starter - 30%
Bust - 40%

Bo:
Top 5 QB for multiple seasons - 5%
Top 15 QB for multiple seasons - 15%
Serviceable starter - 40%
Bust - 40%

What were Brock Purdy's numbers?

 

[noharleyyet]

I like Penix, but the more you watch him.

The more impressed you are at his receivers bailing him out.

Clean pocket. He is good.

Get him off his spot and he is rough.

Penix was unbelievable against the Horns, granted Texas had sieve coverage. He is an interesting story...hope he stays healthy and makes some money.

 

[TheDudeAbides]

That clip has to be sarcasm. First, he misses his safety outlet across the middle and instead chooses to fire the ball down the middle of the field to a well-covered WR. The ball should have been knocked down, at least, or even intercepted. Think of doing that play in NFL? If the rusher doesn't drill him into the turf, the D-back isn't going to miss the ball. That clip certainly isn't evidence of anything.

That said, I watched a lot of Penix last year. It was good to see him healthy. He has skill, but I saw as much bad as good. I can say the same about Caleb Williams (at times he looked terrible). I expect that with any college QB.

Picking a successful NFL QB is almost impossible, as @VikingsGuy stats show. I always thought the one trait is to not panic and know your reads. It helps to have a good OL and to be able to run the ball (no one bites on the run-fake if you can't run the ball effectively). We can name a hundred QBs with the physical skills but they never amounted to anything because of something between the ears. I have speculated that AI will eventually be the best NFL scout.

There is a lot of AI already. I believe that ESPN uses it for some of their pressure numbers for pass rushers. GPS tracking of actual on field player speed and movement is another thing that is measured.

One thing that has always been difficult and will be difficult is the mental aspect, which AI will probably struggle with.

The wonderlic and S2 scores were/are meant to show cognitive ability. Even then there is a loose correlation to NFL play and there is a large variance on how the data is interrupted by media and teams.

We can measure physical ability and we are attempting to measure cognitive ability, but how those variables work together is another story.

Another thing with QB's is overcoming adversity. Unless you are Mahomes, Love, Purdy, or Lamar, then you are probably going to go to a poorly run franchise with a new regime.

You are probably going to have to deal with a bad OL. Mahomes, Purdy, and Burrow went to superbowls with below league average OL play. Purdy one has one quality starter on the OL and Mahomes has two bad Tackles and they met in the super bowl last year. You have to be a QB that can overcome deficiencies in the team or else you will be Kirk Cousins or Jared Goff at your peak. Where the team has to be good around you for success rather than being able to lead an average roster to success.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Penix was unbelievable against the Horns, granted Texas had sieve coverage. He is an interesting story...hope he stays healthy and makes some money.

More worried about his health than skill. As the old school coaches used to say, “the most important ability is ‘availability’”.

 

[noharleyyet]

More worried about his health than skill. As the old school coaches used to say, “the most important ability is ‘availability’”.

No doubt but the guy still put up big numbers & toughness can't be coached.

 

[TheDudeAbides]

Penix was unbelievable against the Horns, granted Texas had sieve coverage. He is an interesting story...hope he stays healthy and makes some money.

He was. That was his best game of the season. It was shocking to see Texas unable to put any pressure on him the entire game.

The next game against Michigan was his worst game of the season. Washington would have a good chance at winning if Penix played well.

 

[VikingsGuy]

What were Brock Purdy's numbers?

Brock:
Top 5 QB for multiple seasons - 0%
Top 15 QB for multiple seasons - 1%
Serviceable starter - 4%
Bust - 95%. (Although bust is a weird word for a 7th rounder - would probably label “out of the league or career backup” if discussing round 2-7 qbs)




31 teams (incl 49ers) still looking for a later rounder to win them multiple super bowls. Fun when it happens, nothing to be learned and applied more broadly.

 

[NR_Hunter]

That clip has to be sarcasm. First, he misses his safety outlet across the middle and instead chooses to fire the ball down the middle of the field to a well-covered WR. The ball should have been knocked down, at least, or even intercepted. Think of doing that play in NFL? If the rusher doesn't drill him into the turf, the D-back isn't going to miss the ball. That clip certainly isn't evidence of anything.

That said, I watched a lot of Penix last year. It was good to see him healthy. He has skill, but I saw as much bad as good. I can say the same about Caleb Williams (at times he looked terrible). I expect that with any college QB.

Picking a successful NFL QB is almost impossible, as @VikingsGuy stats show. I always thought the one trait is to not panic and know your reads. It helps to have a good OL and to be able to run the ball (no one bites on the run-fake if you can't run the ball effectively). We can name a hundred QBs with the physical skills but they never amounted to anything because of something between the ears. I have speculated that AI will eventually be the best NFL scout.

I’d rather have a cool QB



Than a broccoli head QB

 

[VikingsGuy]

Vikings probability outcomes just 30 hours away:

50% - two seasons of false hope that by trading three 1st round picks, “we got our guy”.
30% - one season of false cautious optimism that KOC can work a miracle on the 5th or 6th QB taken - but at least we kept our picks
20% - Sam Darnold for a year to set up trading three 1st round picks in 2025 to get Sheduer Sanders - the plan all along

 

[INMT]

1) CHI - Caleb Williams
2) WSH - Jayden Daniels
3) NE - Drake Maye
4) AZ - Marvin Harrison Jr
5) MIN - JJ McCarthy
6) NYG - Mailk Nabers
7) TN - Joe Alt
8) ATL - Byron Murphy II
9) CHI - Rome Odunze
10) NYJ - Brock Bowers

Tie Breaker - 12

 

[singleshot1]

1. CHI-Caleb Williams
2. WSH-Jayden Daniels
3. NE-Drake Maye
4. AZ-Marvin Harrison Jr
5. SD (from MIN)-Brock Bowers
6. NYG-Malik Nabers
7. TN-Joe Alt
8. ATL-Byron Murphy
9. CHI-Jared Verse
10. NYJ-Rome Odunze

Tie Breaker- 24

 

[SAJ-99]

31 teams (incl 49ers) still looking for a later rounder to win them multiple super bowls. Fun when it happens, nothing to be learned and applied more broadly.

Joe Montana was a 3rd pick. Kurt Warner was undrafted. I get it though- non first rounder QBs rarely succeed, but a large part of that is probably the emphasis on QBs. It also doesn't mean the NFL teams are good at evaluating QBs. The number of bad QBs that were high picks that make the Super Bowl is high enough to believe 1) you can win with a deep, solid team and terrible QB (Rex Grossman) 2) college highlight reels are almost useless.

Ask - Would you be ok with the Vikings trading #11 to San Fran for Brock Purdy?

I’d rather have a cool QB
View attachment 324165


Than a broccoli head QB
View attachment 324166

Good luck with that. For the last 3yrs the Bears had a really cool QB with amazing talent. Unfortunately he never figured out how to play QB at NFL level. The only real productive thing generated were excuses - It's the WR, It's the OL, is the coaching, etc.

Reoccurring theme to my post - Bears and QBs have bad history.

 

[noharleyyet]

Taylor Swift to Buffalo for Hailie Steinfield...

 

[VikingsGuy]

Ask - Would you be ok with the Vikings trading #11 to San Fran for Brock Purdy?

I think Brock is a forever #12-15 QB playing on a stacked team. So, would I take him at rookie minimum? Ya. Would I pay him starter’s money? No. I am done having decent QBs making a bunch of money and going 10-7. All or nothing - I want to keep reaching for the next Mahommes/Allen every year until we get one.