COVID-19 Links, facts and discussion. Politics and hyperbole welcome.

[npaden]

Today's numbers didn't fit into the graph as well. 5,249 new cases and 743 new deaths. Still looking like the peak for new cases, deaths are still lower than the all time high of 793 but are the 2nd highest. At least not a big jump up to all time highs like the last time there was a short dip. Still hopeful that it was the peak on the 21st. Some of this may be reporting errors with Sunday's numbers being a little low and Monday's numbers being a little high.

Spain also is looking like it may have peaked. Still very early for them though.

Keeping my broken record going on Italy.

New cases 5,986; 6,557; 5,560; 4,789; 5,249; 5,210. Deaths 627, 793, 651, 601, 743, 683.

Again, Sunday's numbers (4,789 new cases and 601 new deaths) appear to be the outlier here but that makes 4 days in a row that new cases have been down off the peak last Friday.

As discussed, the deaths are going to be lagging behind so they aren't necessarily going to fall in line on the graph as easily as the new cases should. It is a bit morbid to think about, but the 6,557 folks that showed up in peak of new cases on Friday most likely won't be showing up in the death toll for several more days.

With all that said it does appear that Italy has really hit a peak and is starting to drop off. It might be more of a plateau than a true peak as there are several metropolitan areas that are all on different timelines contributing to the overall numbers.

 

[LWC55]

Nice graph...

Montana is big state with a low population, low population density, and very few "big" cities.

A good portion of Montana residents have been "social distancing" their entire lives.

Snapshot of one state doesn't mean much to me, in particular when put into context.

The Rise and Fall of COVID-19

See a statistical model of the future of the COVID-19 pandemic so that you can make informed decisions!

dispensationalpublishing.com

Buzz he has models on almost every state in the attached link Most countries too. Not Wyoming yet...unfortunately. But it is coming.
Feel free to post other expert models. I truly would like to see more but they are not easy to find.

 

[LWC55]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the...direct=amp#click=[URL]https://t.co/23xSpn5zr1

[/URL]

From WSJ: Mortality rate could be as low as .01%....one-tenth of flu mortality rate of .1%

Way too early to know for sure. But shows that initial estimates may have been way off.

Both authors are also Stanford professors in medicine. So you don't think they are just some quacks spouting off.

Eran Bendavid
ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR OF MEDICINE (PRIMARY CARE AND POPULATION HEALTH), SENIOR FELLOW AT THE WOODS INSTITUTE FOR THE ENVIRONMENT AND ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR, BY COURTESY, OF HEALTH RESEARCH AND POLICY
Medicine - Primary Care and Population Health
Jayanta Bhattacharya
PROFESSOR OF MEDICINE, SENIOR FELLOW AT THE STANFORD INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC POLICY RESEARCH AND, BY COURTESY, AT THE FREEMAN SPOGLI INSTITUTE AND PROFESSOR, BY COURTESY, OF HEALTH RESEARCH AND POLICY AND OF ECONOMICS
Medicine - Primary Care Outcomes Research

 

[Rainer]

Well my brothers girlfriend is in critical condition right now and has lost the pregnancy. I have been diagnosed positive for COVID-19 after a couple colleagues came back to the office after a trip to Florida. They too have tested positive. I've also lost my job for trying to force them into a 14 day quarantine.

I guess I have time to catch up on some Netflix and pick out a new Sitka outfit for the fall.

 

[ImBillT]

https://translate.googleusercontent...lo-due&usg=ALkJrhgo6LtF1d8qnviwbF53mYPW88kYiw

[/URL]


Not many details.

 

[Straight Arrow]

Well my brothers girlfriend is in critical condition right now and has lost the pregnancy. I have been diagnosed positive for COVID-19 after a couple colleagues came back to the office after a trip to Florida. They too have tested positive. I've also lost my job for trying to force them into a 14 day quarantine.

I guess I have time to catch up on some Netflix and pick out a new Sitka outfit for the fall.

How about some up-your-nose anecdotal reality numbers for the armchair prognosticating skeptics! Your never ending graphical pontificating analyses mean little to Rainer, his brother and ill girlfriend at this juncture.

 

[Nameless Range]

Very pessimistic. Not comforting.

How the Pandemic Will End

The U.S. may end up with the worst COVID-19 outbreak in the industrialized world. This is how it’s going to play out.

www.theatlantic.com

 

[ImBillT]

Keeping my broken record going on Italy.

New cases 5,986; 6,557; 5,560; 4,789; 5,249; 5,210. Deaths 627, 793, 651, 601, 743, 683.

Again, Sunday's numbers (4,789 new cases and 601 new deaths) appear to be the outlier here but that makes 4 days in a row that new cases have been down off the peak last Friday.

As discussed, the deaths are going to be lagging behind so they aren't necessarily going to fall in line on the graph as easily as the new cases should. It is a bit morbid to think about, but the 6,557 folks that showed up in peak of new cases on Friday most likely won't be showing up in the death toll for several more days.

With all that said it does appear that Italy has really hit a peak and is starting to drop off. It might be more of a plateau than a true peak as there are several metropolitan areas that are all on different timelines contributing to the overall numbers.

I definitely think the new cases is a better indicator of it leveling off.

That said, I expect to see 310 in the US for the final tally today. Hopefully some viable treatment options will figured out very rapidly.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

Apparently, from the CDC website, CDC is the main collection for cases in the U.S.
If there are local discrepencies, refer to the individual local/state #'s as it's dependant on them to report to CDC and they may report end of day or every other, etc...

Based on that... People curious about the speed of the cases:

This is the new collection of total U.S. cases as reported to CDC, as of today.
Monday, March 23
View attachment 132279

These were the total number of cases as of Friday with this info collected today just before their update @ 12est. People still questioning the severity we face?
Friday March 20
View attachment 132280

Fri, March 20th

Mon, March 23rd

Weds March 25th

 

[Bigjay73]

How about some up-your-nose anecdotal reality numbers for the armchair prognosticating skeptics! Your never ending graphical pontificating analyses mean little to Rainer, his brother and ill girlfriend at this juncture.

A horrible outcome, and I'm not on the side of the skeptics, but this is a little over the top.

 

[LWC55]

Very pessimistic. Not comforting.

How the Pandemic Will End

The U.S. may end up with the worst COVID-19 outbreak in the industrialized world. This is how it’s going to play out.

www.theatlantic.com

Terrifying. What are his numbers, models, predictions? What does he think tomorrow and the next week will look like? I couldn't find that data or skimmed over it.

I did see:
The other major epidemics of recent decades either barely affected the U.S. (SARS, MERS, Ebola), were milder than expected (H1N1 flu in 2009), or were mostly limited to specific groups of people (Zika, HIV).

Everyone can judge for themselves if 60 million cases, 274,000 hospitalizations, and 12,000 deaths is considered milder than expected or barely affected the US. If we were expecting it to be much worse, I would have to think we might have postponed a baseball game or two, at the very least.

CDC Estimates of 2009 H1N1 Influenza Cases, Hospitalizations and Deaths in the United States
During the pandemic, CDC provided estimates of the numbers of 2009 H1N1 cases, hospitalizations and deaths on seven different occasions. Final estimates were published in 2011. These final estimates were that from April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010 approximately 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (8868-18,306) occurred in the United States due to pH1N1. These final estimates are available at: Estimating the burden of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in the United States (April 2009-April 2010), Shrestha SS, et al., Clin Infect Dis. 2011 Jan 1;52 Suppl 1:S75-82.

 

[Deleted member 20812]

Well my brothers girlfriend is in critical condition right now and has lost the pregnancy. I have been diagnosed positive for COVID-19 after a couple colleagues came back to the office after a trip to Florida. They too have tested positive. I've also lost my job for trying to force them into a 14 day quarantine.

I guess I have time to catch up on some Netflix and pick out a new Sitka outfit for the fall.

Praying for you and wishing you the best man.

 

[Deleted member 20812]

Very pessimistic. Not comforting.

How the Pandemic Will End

The U.S. may end up with the worst COVID-19 outbreak in the industrialized world. This is how it’s going to play out.

www.theatlantic.com

If this level of governmental incompetence and dishonesty was involved in something like firearms background checks or a license drawing, folks here would be burning the place to the ground.

 

[Handlebar]

The Atlantic is on the opposite end of the spectrum just like The Federalist

 

[EYJONAS!]

Spare everyone the graphs and statistics and opinions and get to the point. All the rules are already broken on this thread and Randy deemed it dead.

@Rainer I feel terrible for your families loss and wish you all the best. Good luck in your ventures moving forward.

Best thing we can do is stay somewhat optimistic and positive moving forward. No matter how one feels about our government it's never good enough for someone else the amount of information on the COVID virus is diluted and quite frankly I'm not sure there's one effn person who knows what is really gonna happen. Just a bunch of educated guesses and opinions. Is it gonna work out maybe, are there gonna be some who unfortunately don't get through it yes, is this all a horrific and unfortunate event, without question. The only thing for certain is this world is changed forever and there isn't one damn person in this world that knows what next week will look like let alone 6 months from now if this rock is still spinning.

So maybe instead of death rates and this ain't as bad as the flu talk how about someone put something up that might somewhat positive vs. What some other continent is doing........

 

[ImBillT]

Interesting that the link I posted is now dead.

 

[Hunting Wife]

Well my brothers girlfriend is in critical condition right now and has lost the pregnancy. I have been diagnosed positive for COVID-19 after a couple colleagues came back to the office after a trip to Florida. They too have tested positive. I've also lost my job for trying to force them into a 14 day quarantine.

I guess I have time to catch up on some Netflix and pick out a new Sitka outfit for the fall.

Sorry to hear. Hope she pulls through. And take care of yourself.

 

[Sytes]

Likewise as others have shared. Praying for all affected. What a challenge to face!

 

[Trial153]

I just got back into work, thanks again for my buddy handling my all trading while i pick up extra shifts till this blows over.
We lost two medics this week, out till tests come back either negative or they finish a quarantine. They were scheduled for 72 and 96 hours next week, i am trying to plug those holes....not working out so well.

On a postive note we have new guidelines from the state that allow us more leeway to refuse transport. The presence and direction from the state been excellent on all fronts. Triaging is taking place outside facailities freeing up space. However the critical care capacity is stretched very thin, effecting our dispositions greatly.
We are still super short on supplies, Normal Saline, N95s and PPEs

 

[406dn]

It would be nice if more scientists would post their data so that we can see what it is really going on. I'll post Dr. Frank's model and we can see how close he gets. He updates daily on FB if any would like to see how things are progressing.


View attachment 132751

View attachment 132750

This model is already proven to be wrong. He has the deaths per day peaking at about 90 deaths per day. Yesterday the deaths topped 200. There were nearly 150 the day before and are over 150 so far today. We'll blow past his projection of total deaths in the next few days. He predicts that the deaths per day are about to decline in the next day or two.

It would be wonderful if his prediction was true, but he is no where close to the final tally. Florida and Louisiana are going to see many deaths over the next ten days.