Recent content by BuckRut

  1. BuckRut

    Montana General Season Structure Proposal

    This is the attitude that will kill any progress with the Montana management because it is far to prevalent across the state.
  2. BuckRut

    Montana General Season Structure Proposal

    I figured that was the general consensus and I agree with the other posts that the effort is commendable. My biggest critique would be that most of this will prove futile if the FWP does not establish a better way to set and maintain objectives. The whole process of basing objectives on a...
  3. BuckRut

    Montana General Season Structure Proposal

    If you only wanted positive comments why even take comments. The roadblocks in this are going to be the things people find wrong with it not the things they find right. I haven't had enough time with this proposal to make any constructive comments right now but I as well see some hard...
  4. BuckRut

    Selway Wilderness

    Obviously since this is a hunting forum my motivations are pretty obvious but feel free to drop a post or dm about anything to do with the place. Even if it's some summer pics or general terrain/ecosystem info. It's a lot of ground so there's no way I'm even gonna scratch the surface on foot...
    • BuckRut
    • Thread
    • Replies: 4
    • Forum: Deer
  5. BuckRut

    Wordle

    Wordle 1,020 4/6 ⬛🟩⬛⬛⬛ ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ ⬛🟨⬛⬛⬛ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 Well that escalated quickly
  6. BuckRut

    Hey, draw odds dorks…

    Another point to note is that none of these services are offering predictive odds. They are simply trying to accurately calculate the odds from last year. And again the problem with the TopRut odds is that they did not apply the 10% cap to the NR numbers.
  7. BuckRut

    Hey, draw odds dorks…

    Correct. And the best estimate takes into account the odds of how my ping pong balls are left during each draw from the pool.
  8. BuckRut

    Hey, draw odds dorks…

    Sorry. I left out those are the odds with max 23 points. What I left out was how many tickets are removed because say the first guy drawn had the max 529 tickets and now there are 529 less out of the 500k+ remaining tickets. Don't sell the statistics short though. It is entirely possible to...
  9. BuckRut

    Hey, draw odds dorks…

    Not arguing this part any farther but the above statements are false. You are over simplifying the complexity of the system and downplaying the task entities like GoHunt and TopRut have to deal with to make it simple enough to present to the public. In the example I had. If the first number...
  10. BuckRut

    Hey, draw odds dorks…

    Both of these are off way worse than the draw odds on Toprut. For a lot of draws once a NR draws the number of applicants left for the remaining (what could be 90% of the remaining tags) can be cut more than if half. Take 622-02 for example. Total tickets in the hat to start the draw was...
  11. BuckRut

    Hey, draw odds dorks…

    How are you accounting for the point at which all the NR get thrown out of a specific draw and suddenly your odds as a resident are higher for the remaining draws than they were for the previous draws?
  12. BuckRut

    Hey, draw odds dorks…

    I went to take a look and HF and Toprut are showing the 10% NR quota as the same number as the total quota. Could be one reason for some inflated NR odds if they are higher than they should be.
  13. BuckRut

    Hey, draw odds dorks…

    Here's the kicker. Until the NR quota is met everyone has the same odds R or NR. It's all one big pot until the last NR tag that puts if over the limit is drawn. At that point all the NR are kicked out and the draw continues.
  14. BuckRut

    Hey, draw odds dorks…

    What's your basis for these numbers being way off or unbelievable? Just asking because with the way the system works its nearly impossible to shoot from the hip looking at the data to figure out a legitimate draw odds number.
  15. BuckRut

    Montana Mountain King - Vaughn, MT man pleads guilty to felony wildlife crimes

    I am also guessing that if names of the connection bringing in the Marco Polo specimens came to light that I would not be surprised at who it was.
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