Anxiously awaiting Wyoming Non-Res elk drawing results...

BrentD said:

What is "max points" these days?
And definitely CONGRATULATIONS on that tag!

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Big Fin said:

Congrats to all who drew.

Point creep is real and the Wyoming trend is pretty much a mirror of what happened in Colorado when their point system had been in place about 15 years. A lot of folks buy points, year after year, and when they see it might be a time for them to catch the wave, they jump in and actually apply, taking the available tags and causing consternation to those who thought they had a chance based on the prior point level results. The same thing folks are witnessing in WY happened in Colorado around 2002, and has continued every year since then.

I'm not sure how you combat point creep when demand outstrips supply in a quality elk state like Wyoming, other than accept that it exists and adjust applications accordingly. I subscribe to every research service you can think of. For the most part, they focus on the same 5-10 units in each state, regardless of weapon type or season date. Those units are completely off my radar. They usually have a bad "quality : points required" ratio. Some states you have no choice, as every unit/season is hard to draw for non-residents.

In my 25 years of applying in multiple states, it seems folks are always looking at just last year's odds/results. I track the results from 3-5 years prior, and when you do that, some trends become rather apparent. I try to predict application behaviors based on those multi-year trends, in hopes it helps increase my odds a percentage or two. Sometimes I luck out and my expectations are valid. Some years, my prediction is completely screwed up. Higher risk, higher reward.

For Wyoming, I expect to always be relying on the random draw odds. I will never accumulate the points for the high-demand units. So, I pretty much ignore the preference point totals and focus on the random odds, with random odds having some of the craziest fluctuations you will see.

I also look at the resident demand indexes and use that as a big factor in my application strategy. Often, the research services are focused on units that the non-resident might find appealing. As it is where I live in Montana, the residents probably know more about what is out in those hills than does a research service. You will see most of my applications have average non-resident demand and higher than average resident demand. Those are usually good units that fly under the radar of the research services.

Yeah, in some states, I've ended up with way more points than I had ever imagined or hoped to accumulate. In those states/species, I apply for units with high demand and plenty of point creep. In those instances I accept point creep as a reality and don't worry about. When I'm not at the top of the point pool, as I will never be in Wyoming, I have a completely different approach.

If my decades of applying in multiple states has shown me one thing as it relates to point creep and applications it is to just accept point creep as part of the equation. I expect it will continue to be part of the equation for the foreseeable future. Once I accepted point creep as a reality and started adjusting my plans accordingly, the frustration level dropped and I seem to apply with a different strategy, often ending up with more tags. Surely ended up with less frustration.

In Wyoming this year, we applied for six elk hunts; me, Marcus, Michael, Beau, Matthew, and our sweepstakes winner. We drew three. One was dead ass luck, with Michael drawing one of the very few random tags in a really good unit. With one point, I hoped to have better than 50% odds in a unit with terrible access and drew, which is not a big surprise and comes with a lot of challenges where I may wish I had my money back. Beau had six points and based on application trends, the regular draw should have been possible for him, with this unit having historically unpredictable patterns in the special draw and rather predictable patterns in the regular draw. He did draw in the less expensive regular draw, with similar odds to if he had been in the special. The unit has lots of outfitted non-resident hunters who prefer the special draw, making the regular draw an overlooked opportunity for those at the mid-tier point level.

No doubt, you can't beat gambler's luck like Michael had. With a bit of research and staying away from the glory units or those that hit the research service lists, people with lower point totals still have a chance in Wyoming. That 25% random chance is what makes Wyoming so attractive to non-residents, compared to the pure preference point states like Colorado.

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BuzzH said:

Sure, anywhere there is sagebrush in unit 100 there could be elk. Could drive a honda accord and never leave I-80 and kill a six point...fact.

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