Wyoming NR RANDOM draw

BrentD

BrentD

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I have been trying to figure out what to do with my second choice option for an elk application. After reading the WGF website it, seems that applying for a second option that has more first choice applicants than tags cannot ever win. Not even with Powerball-like odds. But they also do not explicitly explain how second and third options are dealt with in the random part of the draw (is it pretty clear for the preference point draws).

Last year, there were over 4000 first choice applicants for 588 NR random draw General tags. As i understand it, the 781 people who put down GEN for 2nd and 3rd choice had exactly zero chance of being drawn. Is that correct?

I don't mind putting down a long shot for second choice, but there is no sense in putting in for something that is, by definition, unobtainable.
 
Someone will correct me if I am wrong. I am almost positive your second choice does not come into play in the random draw. Random draw is a separate draw pass that looks at your first choice.

"Last year, there were over 4000 first choice applicants for 588 NR random draw General tags. As i understand it, the 781 people who put down GEN for 2nd and 3rd choice had exactly zero chance of being drawn. Is that correct?"

The second choice would only come into play on regular draw. So yes these folks had zero chance. Your second choice has to be a type that is undersold as a first choice to have a mathematical chance of drawing.
 
Z Barebow said:
Someone will correct me if I am wrong. I am almost positive your second choice does not come into play in the random draw. Random draw is a separate draw pass that looks at your first choice.

"Last year, there were over 4000 first choice applicants for 588 NR random draw General tags. As i understand it, the 781 people who put down GEN for 2nd and 3rd choice had exactly zero chance of being drawn. Is that correct?"

The second choice would only come into play on regular draw. So yes these folks had zero chance. Your second choice has to be a type that is undersold as a first choice to have a mathematical chance of drawing.
Click to expand...
Exactly no chance at a bull tag as second choice. They look at everyone’s first choice first then after all applicants first choice has been considered they move to second choice
 
Everyone, regardless of how many PPs they have, go into the PP Draw for their first choice. Then all those that don't draw a tag go into the Random Draw . The only time you have a chance at your second choice is if there are still tags left after both draws because all first choice applicants have to be satisfied first. Look at the Random Draw stats to see if there are more tags available in that draw than the number of first choice applicants. If there are, that is when you have a chance to draw that tag as your second choice.
 
Last year, you mathematically could not have drawn a bull tag on second or third choice - points or random (regular draw). The demand for all types 1,2, and 9 exceeded the tags available on first choice.

The short answer is no bull tag you would want is likely to ever be drawn on second or third choice in the regular draw. Put the tag you want as your first choice and be done.
 
Last edited:
madtom said:
Last year, you mathematically could not have drawn a bull tag on second or third choice - points or random (regular draw). The demand for all types 1,2, and 9 exceeded the tags available on first choice.

The short answer is no bull tag you would want is likely to ever be drawn on second or third choice in the regular draw. Put the tag you want as your first choice and be done.
Click to expand...

That's pretty much what I'm learning. I was hoping to find a tag that I would be willing to hunt but not lose my PP for in the event I don't draw. Point creep increased last year more than the one point I picked up. So odds of drawing are getting worse even as I accrue more points (and fewer dollar$).

Thanks everyone for the confirmation.
 
Looks like a handful of bull tags made it to the leftover draw (from the resident pool) last year. I'd rather have a cow tag than any of them, but YMMV.
 
There are no antlered tags (type 1) where Nonresident first choice applicants was less than the quota number. So it would seem that second choice has no value in the random draw for antlered elk.
 
BrentD said:
There are no antlered tags (type 1) where Nonresident first choice applicants was less than the quota number. So it would seem that second choice has no value in the random draw for antlered elk.
Click to expand...

Correct, though type 2 and 9 are also antlered tags. JTM is talking about tags that were leftover from the resident pool going into the leftover draw where a nonresident could draw them.

Probably not of interest but worth mentioning that if you're willing to forego antlers and have a fun hunt for high quality eats, there are some really good cow options to be had.
 
We have only 5.5 PP. In 2017, 4 pts were all that was needed In 2018, we had 4.5, 7 pts were needed. We weren't even close. Now we have 5.5 pts. Not looking good at all.

Could go cow hunting but not really what I had in mind.
 
It would be really nice if these darn PDF hunting odds would cut and paste into an excel spreadsheet.
 
or use a pdf to excel online converter

The pp side of the draw is 1st choice only. 2nd choice is used in the random, after the 1st choice apps get looked at.
 
Yes, I wasn't thinking. I can simply call it up in adobe, instead of a web browser and copy with formatting (right button), and that will paste just fine.

Sometimes I make things much more difficult than I need to. Thanks for reminding me to think.
 
jtm307 said:
Correction: One could have drawn 97-1 in the leftover draw.
Click to expand...

Correct there are leftover bull tags in several units but that is in the resident draw later in late spring then those tags go to leftover as said above. But there aren’t any leftover bull tags traditionally in the NR draw in Jan
 
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