Success Rates vs. Advice on Hunttalk

tomengineer · Jan 15, 2019

I'm currently planning a 4 man antelope trip for Wyoming in October of 2019. We are driving from northern NY. I'm trying to do my research on units. We all bought points last year. Like so many other posts on here I have been wondering about units 7,16,17,23 based on our number of points and our desire to go hunting this year. All that being said I'm wondering if I could get some feedback on a discrepancy I'm seeing. I see a lot of the following statements about 16,17 and other low point units "there is very little public access, antelope don't live in this rocky country" etc. etc. Even the Wyoming Game & Fish Website says "For a quality antelope hunt, hunters are strongly encouraged to secure access to private lands prior to applying for or purchasing a license. There is one AccessYes Walk-In Area that provides limited antelope hunting opportunity. Access to private lands can be difficult to secure as most landowners have hunters that return annually. Most opportunity is through payment of a trespass fee. There are some licensed outfitters offering antelope hunts on private land."

Then I go an look at the success rate for unit 17 and it's 93.0% for a type one hunt for non residents (2017). What gives?

My hope and belief is that if you are willing to walk a few miles you will have opportunities even in low point units. I have read that here from multiple people. When people say there is poor access they mean via truck. I see access points in unit 16 where I can walk for 8 miles off the public road which to an eastern hunter is plenty of access.

Just looking for some perspective here. I just don't want to have these guys drive 25 hours with me and lead them astray.

madtom · Jan 15, 2019

Without any direct experience in those units, my hunch is that many people do pay trespass fees for access in 16 and 17. Not saying you absolutely have to to find a goat, but it would help.

Harvest reports can be a bit misleading because they don't report how much harvest took place on private/public land. A great example is elk area 125 that can be bought as a leftover, has almost no public access, but harvest hovers around 60% every year - among the highest in the state.

JohnCushman · Jan 15, 2019

Wherebouts in NY? I'm originally from the Rochester area.

LCH · Jan 15, 2019

How many points do you have? One for party average I guess?

I would rather hunt does in a unit with lots of access and not a lot of other people than hunt a buck in a crowded area. That's just me, YMMV.

I think if I were you, I'd pick a better unit that has decent random draw odds in the special draw for your buck tags, and also apply for doe tags. Last year, following the price increase, some units went to 100% in the special draw that took a couple of points prior to that. Anybody's guess what those odds will be this year though.

Bigjay73 · Jan 15, 2019

The success rates are more than likely due to most people hunting private land. That being said, I have researched the hell out of Wyoming, and I have yet to find a unit in which people haven't been successful on public land. May take a few more days, and a few more miles, but it can be done.

AvidIndoorsman · Jan 15, 2019

tomengineer said:
My hope and belief is that if you are willing to walk a few miles you will have opportunities even in low point units. I have read that here from multiple people. When people say there is poor access they mean via truck. I see access points in unit 16 where I can walk for 8 miles off the public road which to an eastern hunter is plenty of access.

Exactly, I've never hunted a WY pronghorn unit that required even 1 pt to draw, never had an issue finding pronghorn. Killing a great buck, can be very difficult in those units but if you are up there for 3+ days and walk at least 8 miles a day you will all tag out or at least have shot opportunities.

Go to the county to get maps of which roads are public... good luck!
https://www.ccgov.net/DocumentCenter/View/2017/County-Road-Map
http://www.johnsoncountywyoming.org/jcco/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/johnson_county.pdf

MNElkNut · Jan 15, 2019

I have hunted the past 2 years in 17 and there is very little of the public ground that supports pronghorn. Very little. I am lucky in that I have some private to hunt or I wouldn't hunt there. There are plenty of pronghorn in the unit, but they are all on private. I cannot comment on 16.

AvidIndoorsman · Jan 15, 2019

MNElkNut said:
... there is very little of the public ground that supports pronghorn."

That is easily accessible by road... I mean even in that unit you can still go on a 25 mile hike, never see a person, and be on public land the whole time. 28,000 acres of continuous public, there have got to be some decent bucks running around.

JDH · Jan 15, 2019

Does WGFD label them as limited access based on the ratio of public land to private land? Or by what percentage of the public land is actually accessible? One unit I hunted is labeled limited/poor access with around 16% public land but when look closer it looks like over 60% of that public land is accessible. All but a few of the bigger pieces are accessible.

AvidIndoorsman · Jan 15, 2019

Not sure exactly how the do the calculations, but it certainly seems to be based on the amount of public land you can road hunt, ie drive around, find a buck with your spotter mounted on your window, and then do a 400-500 yard stalk. There is nothing wrong with the way of hunting and it's a blast, but it's not the only way to hunt pronghorn.

I just get irritated that people wont even consider hiking for pronghorn then a couple weeks later will go on an elk hunt in a wilderness area. Words that no hunter has ever heard, "You drew a Gila tag... bummer, no access in that unit".

tomengineer · Jan 15, 2019

I am from Potsdam, NY originally but I live down near Binghamton. My cousin, uncle, and other buddy are from Ithaca although my cousin lives in Rochester currently. He's an EMT up there.

tomengineer · Jan 15, 2019

Yes we have one point each so an average of 1. I don't doubt your logic, just hard to get the guys to drive that distance for doe only. Good thought on the special draw odds I'll look those over.

tomengineer · Jan 15, 2019

Thanks for this.

tomengineer · Jan 15, 2019

Ok thanks. Yes with out number of points there isn't false hope about a trophy but to guys from out east....any pronghorn with horns is going to look cool.

tomengineer · Jan 15, 2019

Ok first time using the thread on Hunt Talk so I was trying to respond to each of you and it just shows as a string of messages lol. Hopefully you guys can figure out who I was talking to.

OhHeyThereBen · Jan 15, 2019

LCH said:
How many points do you have? One for party average I guess?

I would rather hunt does in a unit with lots of access and not a lot of other people than hunt a buck in a crowded area. That's just me, YMMV.

I think if I were you, I'd pick a better unit that has decent random draw odds in the special draw for your buck tags, and also apply for doe tags. Last year, following the price increase, some units went to 100% in the special draw that took a couple of points prior to that. Anybody's guess what those odds will be this year though.

After my trip last fall I would agree with LCH. Have one person pony up for a buck tag and everyone else get a doe tag for either that unit or a nearby one. Then have everyone work to get that one guy a buck and buy a point for this fall for your next trip. Either that, or wait a few years to draw a better unit. There are a bunch that can be drawn for relatively few compared to some of the premier units.

NEWHunter · Jan 15, 2019

I believe that WY success rates are based on statistics and limited harvest surveys rather than hard counts from mandatory phone in or in person registration. Their method can lead to skewed success rates depending on the sample size WY uses. Perhaps somebody more familiar with the methods game and fish uses and a better recollection of their stats classes could comment.

If you’re worried about having some disappointed partners, spend up on the special tag. I spent the extra cash last year and was glad I did. Some good options for your second choice then too. I would apply for doe tags too. Good luck, the planning will be a fun part of the adventure.

tomengineer · Jan 15, 2019

LCH. If we do indeed go in for the special draw and don't get our first choice we get that money back correct? Minus a small application fee?

Bigjay73 · Jan 15, 2019

You only get your money back if you do not draw a tag, doesn't matter what choice it is. You do keep points if you draw below a 1st choice

tomengineer · Jan 15, 2019

Does anyone know if choice matters in the random draw? Let's say I don't get my first choice unit and I'm kicked into the random draw for that unit. Will I be prioritized over people that picked the unit as their second or third choice? I'm spread sheeting drawing odds so I'm trying to determine how the odds break out.

Success Rates vs. Advice on Hunttalk

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