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  1. #26
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Location
    Laramie, WY
    Posts
    10,270

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    Lopehunter,

    I think your post has some good points, but I also think you leave out one fact with Wyoming that I'm seeing happen. That is in the lower point pools. Not that long ago, many tags that now require a point, or two, or three were available as leftover licenses. Now those same leftover areas are taking points to draw.

    What I'm seeing is more applicants in the lower desired units, because in many cases, even a 1-3 point unit is more desirable and easier to draw, and better hunting than a 5+ point tag in other states. Plus, where else do you go where you can get the same quality of, say, a pronghorn hunt with 0-3 points? NV? UT? CO? NM? MT? AZ?...nope, none of those. WY has the pronghorn market cornered. But the same thing with the quality on their "low point" deer and elk tags. Wyoming is in its own class, because we have a good product...both in quality and quantity.

    I don't see Wyoming suffering a crash in applicants for deer, elk, pronghorn for sure. Maybe sheep, moose, goat and bison...Could be wrong. The only declines seen in 2017 NR license applications were moose and bison.

    Time will tell.
    Last edited by BuzzH; 01-11-2019 at 11:19 AM.
    "...the world outside, which my brother and I soon discovered, was full of bastards, the number increasing rapidly the farther one gets from Missoula, Montana." -Norman Maclean

    "They were still so young they hadn't learned to count the odds and to sense they might owe the universe a tragedy"
    -Norman Maclean

  2. #27

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    Does Wyoming have demographic info for all applicants?

    I wonder what portion of max point holders for any state are baby boomers/ gen-x/ millennial. Is there an equal proportion of point holders across generations or is there a huge gap, i.e. is the youngest person to have 20 elk points in CO 60 and the most points a 35 year old in the state has is 10, meaning that in 15 years there all max point holders will be 45 because all of the current max point holders will be dead or too old to hunt? It's possible there are a number of 35 year olds that got into systems with help with their parents and are sitting on max points in some states.

    I'm curious to see if as time progresses if the max point number jumps dramatic down, perhaps the 2019 max point holder has 25 points but in 2022 the max point hold has only 16 because a ton of people age out of the sport without drawing. I definitely noticed a couple of people with max CO moose points opting for cow tags.

  3. #28
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Bismarck, ND
    Posts
    1,215

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    Quote Originally Posted by LopeHunter View Post
    Participation in point systems will decline the next 20 years. States need to put a plan together. The average age of big game hunters is rising. Death happens faster than recruitment of young applicants. How many of the upper 1/3 of CO deer point holders are going to start over after waiting 25 years to get a tag in a primo unit when point creep is about 1 point per year? I predict not many and the guy who waits 20 years to hunt a species in a state is not suddenly going to be happy hunting a 3 point unit for 140 class bucks every fourth year.

    Every state with a point system is struggling to keep the 10 year-year plus point holders on board and, if draw, to get those guys back in line. Wyoming was quite proud about the increase in applications in 2018. Congrats. Economy was strong and had been for years. The increase in cost to apply and hunt finally got some non-residents to start applying for an actual tag. If you were patiently buying points for pronghorn/deer/elk the past decade plus then that got a bit more expensive for the tag yet most of those "point only" folks are not able to hunt a primo pronghorn plus a deer plus a elk hunt in the same year. The draw odds for a primo tag are not 100% for max point folks so that had to cause some head-scratching when Mr. Max Pool got "unsuccessful" on results day. I predict some of those "unsuccessful" 2018 guys will be swallowing some pride and dropping down to a tag that took Max-1 or Max-2 in 2018 so can burn the points on a really good hunt. Point creep is going to cascade downward into middling units.

    In another 2 or 3 years the Max folks will mostly be gone and may not get back in line. WY had the benefit of being after CO, NV, etc, so a lot of non-residents hopped on the point train for pronghorn/deer/elk. Year 1 cost for points was around $30 for pronghorn, $40 for deer and $50 for elk. Some new applicants jumped on the sheep and moose point train as well but were a day late and a dollar short then, even if did not know it back then.
    I just don't see it man. The number of people in the system as a whole go up every year. Here are the number of people that have preference points for WY elk the last few years:

    2012: 40,829
    2013: 43,848
    2014: 47,860
    2015: 52,458
    2016: 59,378
    2017: 67,256
    2018: Somehow I don't have this number...
    2019: 87,969

    Here's antelope:

    2012: 30,819
    2013: 35,454
    2014: 39,647
    2015: 44,454
    2016: 50,287
    2017: 57,631
    2018: Don't know
    2019: 76,249

    Just look at the last 2 years. Both elk and antelope have roughly an additional 20,000 people with points. That's crazy. I don't know what the numbers are in other states but in WY, point creep is going to keep going gangbusters. And for antelope, just imagine what it will be like when they get a bad winter and quotas are cut by 30-50% in a pile of units. Could see a 2-4 point jump in some units.

    As for the elk max point holders, there are still about 1,600 people with max points and they're dropping out at a rate of about 200 per year. That's going to take quite awhile for those guys to go through the system. For antelope, there are about 600 with max points and they've been dropping out around 100 per year.

    Looking out 20 years, it's damn hard to know what will happen but I just don't see participation slowing down in the point systems. When the next recession comes though, it'll be interesting to see how many people continue to buy points.

  4. #29

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    Quote Originally Posted by Flatrock View Post
    I just don't see it man. The number of people in the system as a whole go up every year. Here are the number of people that have preference points for WY elk the last few years:

    2012: 40,829
    2013: 43,848
    2014: 47,860
    2015: 52,458
    2016: 59,378
    2017: 67,256
    2018: Somehow I don't have this number...
    2019: 87,969

    Here's antelope:

    2012: 30,819
    2013: 35,454
    2014: 39,647
    2015: 44,454
    2016: 50,287
    2017: 57,631
    2018: Don't know
    2019: 76,249

    Just look at the last 2 years. Both elk and antelope have roughly an additional 20,000 people with points. That's crazy. I don't know what the numbers are in other states but in WY, point creep is going to keep going gangbusters. And for antelope, just imagine what it will be like when they get a bad winter and quotas are cut by 30-50% in a pile of units. Could see a 2-4 point jump in some units.

    As for the elk max point holders, there are still about 1,600 people with max points and they're dropping out at a rate of about 200 per year. That's going to take quite awhile for those guys to go through the system. For antelope, there are about 600 with max points and they've been dropping out around 100 per year.

    Looking out 20 years, it's damn hard to know what will happen but I just don't see participation slowing down in the point systems. When the next recession comes though, it'll be interesting to see how many people continue to buy points.
    With regards to WY, I'm with this guy. I don't see it participation going down.

    IMO, the only way to pull the rug, is to pull the rug. Overnight all points go to zero and a random draw afterwards. Not very likely to happen...

  5. #30

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    Quote Originally Posted by Flatrock View Post
    Let me modify your tablet to show the reason they won't "pull any rug soon" even better..
    2012: 40,829 X$52 each = $2,123,108.00
    2013: 43,848 = $2,280,096.00
    2014: 47,860 = $2,488,720.00
    2015: 52,458 = $2,727,816.00
    2016: 59,378 = $3,087,656.00
    2017: 67,256 = $3,497,312.00
    2018: Somehow I don't have this number...
    2019: 87,969 = $4,574,388.00

    antelope at .... $31 each

    2019: 76,249 = $2,363,719.00
    That total is just the price of the preference point alone, not the licenses.

  6. #31
    Join Date
    Apr 2015
    Location
    Wenatchee
    Posts
    1,385

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    I would love to see applications drop in the future, but I don't see it happening. A quality hunt is worth paying for, and as hunt qual goes down across the country hunters will be more willing to pay to hunt the last bastions of the "good stuff" i.e. the rocky mountain states.
    Elitist Hunter

    "Never let schooling [work] get in the way of your education" - Mark Twain

  7. #32

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    Quote Originally Posted by Greenhorn View Post
    That total is just the price of the preference point alone, not the licenses.
    as in most areas of life . . . follow the money
    Freedom Is Not Free

  8. #33
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Location
    Laramie, WY
    Posts
    10,270

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    Quote Originally Posted by Greenhorn View Post
    That total is just the price of the preference point alone, not the licenses.
    Not sure how they're projecting 2019 applicant totals, but don't forget that all preference point fees, at least in the past, were refunded to all successful first choice tags drawn.

    I guess this year, there is no option to purchase preference points until later in the year after the draw.

    I agree that applicants wont decline, its about the quality Wyoming has over most other Western States.
    "...the world outside, which my brother and I soon discovered, was full of bastards, the number increasing rapidly the farther one gets from Missoula, Montana." -Norman Maclean

    "They were still so young they hadn't learned to count the odds and to sense they might owe the universe a tragedy"
    -Norman Maclean

  9. #34

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by 1_pointer View Post
    IMO, the only way to pull the rug, is to pull the rug. Overnight all points go to zero and a random draw afterwards. Not very likely to happen...
    Can they just change what a preference point means? Instead of requiring them to draw could they just use them to increase the odds. That is, an applicant with 1 point would have double the odds of someone with 0 points. That way, someone with 0 points could draw but someone with 20 points would have 20 times the odds.

  10. #35

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    From an ethical perspective a state shouldnt promote a system that is self defeating if it continues. Preference point system are just that and they need to be phased out.
    I am not picky how that happens and will gladly give up my points in favor of a random draw. I understand that some feel that Restitution is in order...maybe it is and maybe it isnt. If it was need ed to "sell " switch over to random I am sure that something can be worked out maybe in the form of charge back towards future fees ect. Even a conversion to bonus points is Palatable to me.
    Right now we are propping up a ponize scheme that cant pay out with any reasonable certainty for enough stakeholders. It not a question Guaranteeing fairness of out comes but of fairness in Opportunity.

  11. Default

    coming to fish and game soon, a points exchange. it will be like the stock exchange. buy, sell, trade, inherit gift etc...... game and fish will collect fees from buyer and seller. whats better than selling points? selling the same points more than once.

  12. #37
    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Bend, Orygun
    Posts
    2,033

    Default

    The point totals are the numbers going into the next years draw.

    2018 Elk 77,484

    2018 Ant 66,574
    Last edited by WapitiBob; 01-11-2019 at 09:26 PM.

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