Arizona elk

Not looking to invest 10+ years at my age on a premium tag.Im wondering what's a realistic time frame in years to draw a decent late season rifle hunt.I am considering using my air miles to fly out and do their safety test for the 1 point that I'd have forever.
Kicking myself for not applying there over past 10 years.Now I want a coues deer as well to finish my deer slam so I'll have to buy the license anyway.Anyone wanting to suggest a season and unit for the deer would be a huge help.Ive just started researching that a little.Not sure if I can build points and still draw a lesser quality deer hunt to gain some experience.Not up to speed on Arizona draws so I'll have to watch Randy's video on that.I know they have OTC archery hunt going on into January.That seems like a real long shot though till I understand their habits better
But, back to the elk, is it PROBABLE to draw a decent late season tag within 5 years?

Not a chance.Maybe 10yrs.No Elk in Az.anyway,try Montana.lol!
Heck residents can hardly draw in 5yrs.

There are plenty of good hunts in the 6-8 point range. If you apply for 5 years, get a loyalty point and are also able to get the hunter safety point, you will be in good shape in 5-6 years. No you won't be chasing elk in a primo unit but there are good bulls in almost every unit.

You can always be lucky! I have draw two late bull rifle tags and one early bull archery tag in the white mountains in the last 6 years. On the other hand my brother in law hasn't drawn an elk tag in the same time period. It does help that I purchased a lifetime license before I moved out of state, so I am in the resident pool.
Coues deer is a different story, plenty of units that you can draw every year. PM me for more info.

Im curious about this too. Our group started getting points last year and were planning/hoping to do the same hunt in 5-6 years.

It is possible. I drew a bull elk in area 6a with only 2 points in 2016. Everyone said its a general area so only small bulls. A guy shot a 325 7x7 bull just before I could close the gap opening morning. A few days later I got a small 5x6 but I am still happy to have him and would hunt that "general area" again. According to my research there are some areas still over 50% draw odds with 4 points but only a few. They are tough hunts though.
Good luck.

Do you need to bring your own weapon for the Hunter safety point?I read somewhere they do range time for this course.Im sure a few of you guys have taken it.Can you tell me what I should bring and be prepared for?I was told you also go outdoors for a hike and asked about certain situations.Not sure what's all true but seems more intense then a typical test

Go to Don Martin's class in Kingman. All you need to bring is yourself and you don't need to worry about any online stuff. You'll be done in a day and have your Hunter Ed point.

As far as drawing a decent tag in 5 years. It's definitely possible but I'd say not probable. What you can draw now with 6 or 7 points and what you'll be able to draw in 5 years with 6 or 7 points will likely be much different.

Toprut lists all the odds for every late rifle tag. Just input your point total and it'll tell you your chance to draw. Looks like the odds are still 2017 odds, though.

https://www.toprut.com/hunt/arizona-elk/

There's some units that you'd be guaranteed to draw with 6ish points but none of them are units that you'd likely see on TV where the guy has a good chance at a 350+ bull or anything. I hunted late rifle in Arizona last year in a pretty good unit and didn't connect, then this year hunted a leftover 4th rifle tag in Colorado in an OTC unit and shot a 310+ bull. Point being don't sit at home waiting for an Arizona tag all these years because there's plenty of other opportunity out there that isn't all that much worse.

I do use TopRut.Excellent service for free.Is Arizona experiencing point creep like say Wyoming and Colorado? Those states go up a point in most areas every year

Some az elk hunts don't creep much because people move as their points increase. On a side note, only 1 late rifle hunt was a 5 point draw in the Bonus Pass in 2018. 5 years of applying along with the hunter ed and loyalty point (7 total) should get you close for app year 6 as mentioned above.

psycho 50% draw?In who's world...I've lived here 53yrs and never seen 50% draw.Although my brother drew Antelope 2yrs in a row with 0 pts!

I subscribe to a service and that's what it says for some units. I have never used toprut but looked it up there and same result around that 4-6 point mark. Doesn't mean there are any elk in those units but its still a tag.

Elk:
I'd probably look at 6A, 8, 5a, 5b, or 10 for a NR late season Elk tag with 6 or less points. Unit 22 might be the easiest 'Decent Unit' to draw but you'll largely find raghorns and small 5X5s. 1, 23, 27, and 7w are going to be the top units for the late hunt. You can't draw if you don't apply. Forget waiting till you get to 5-6 points to apply, you can draw any unit with 0 points. IMO, swing for the fence with your first choice, then something more attainable with your second choice.
Coues:
If you want a Coues too I'd recommend the third rifle season in a unit south of I-10. You can typically draw one of these hunts every year with 0 points and the units are full of deer. Since your buying the license anyway I'd apply for elk in January and if you dont draw apply for deer in June. The late rifle bull season and Coues 3rd rifle season run concurrently, so you cant really do both in the same year. The 3rd coues season is 10 days long as opposed to the 7 day seasons earlier in Oct-Nov. This allows you to avoid the chaos of opening weekend and see a lot less hunting pressure during the week/2nd weekend. Most years the 3rd rifle coues hunts start the Friday after Thanksgiving but every few years they start a week later and its not uncommon to see a little prerut activity at the tail end of the hunt. Weather is cooler too; I hunted 36C in Oct 2017 and daytime highs were in the 90s. If you don't want to hunt by the border for coues; Unit 23 should be your 1st choice, but its an Oct season. 1 and 27 also have Coues but they are not that common. The 24 units have a lot of deer but also a lot of tags. 8 and 6a have coues, but I've never seen one in either if them.

Good info Swede. The 24 units have a lot of tags, but in 24b, there's a lot of room to walk and get away from crowds. Good unit, especially if you live in Phoenix.