SD MD NR Draw Question

Dooger · Nov 28, 2018

First off, I understand the whole cubed process for next year; however, I’m still looking at draw results.

I’m noticing that in certain draws, there might be two applicants with 7-8 points and didn’t draw, but someone with 6 points secured a tag? How’s that? Did the guys with 7-8 points only apply for the 2nd draw or something?

ZBB · Nov 28, 2018

No not the second draw, they have a different statistic page for that. It’s not a true preference point system, with the highest tag holders drawing, as you saw. They’re all in the same pot to be picked from. They changed the draw for next year so you’ll need to pick to apply for Black hills, west river OR east river in the first draw. So I don’t know how helpful the stats page will be for next year.

Dooger · Nov 28, 2018

So what was the purpose of preference points if they didn’t help the hunters odds of drawing. I thought the person with the highest number of points in a given draw was guaranteed a tag???

This whole cubing points is gonna suck for a NR to plan for a hunt. I have 4 WR points and I’m not even sure I should try to cash them for a few years...and I want to hunt next year. Might just cash my WY elk/antelope/deer points in the next three years.

warmer · Nov 28, 2018

ZBB said:
No not the second draw, they have a different statistic page for that. It’s not a true preference point system, with the highest tag holders drawing, as you saw. They’re all in the same pot to be picked from. They changed the draw for next year so you’ll need to pick to apply for Black hills, west river OR east river in the first draw. So I don’t know how helpful the stats page will be for next year.

The application process change was approved by the GFP Commission, but not accepted by the Legislative Rules Committee. So everything starts all over. At this point I doubt it will be in place for 2019.

warmer · Nov 28, 2018

Dooger said:
So what was the purpose of preference points if they didn’t help the hunters odds of drawing. I thought the person with the highest number of points in a given draw was guaranteed a tag???

This whole cubing points is gonna suck for a NR to plan for a hunt. I have 4 WR points and I’m not even sure I should try to cash them for a few years...and I want to hunt next year. Might just cash my WY elk/antelope/deer points in the next three years.

Cubing the points increased the odds of those with more points but still don't guarantee success. SD doesn't guarantee tags to those with most points. Yet.

ImBillT · Nov 28, 2018

Dooger said:
So what was the purpose of preference points if they didn’t help the hunters odds of drawing. I thought the person with the highest number of points in a given draw was guaranteed a tag???

This whole cubing points is gonna suck for a NR to plan for a hunt. I have 4 WR points and I’m not even sure I should try to cash them for a few years...and I want to hunt next year. Might just cash my WY elk/antelope/deer points in the next three years.

It means that someone with 2pts is twice as likely to draw as someone with 1pt. If they start squaring pts, then someone with 2pts is four times as likely to draw as someone with 1pt.(because essentially the 2pts person has 4pts, and the 1pt person still just has 1pt). If they cube it, then the 2pts person is now 8 times as likely to draw as the 1pt person. Such a system give the person who has applied many years without being drawn drastically higher probability of being drawn, yet still encourages a new person to apply. When you go to a system that automatically awards the hunt to the people with the most points, then it doesn’t take long before new hunters won’t apply. That sounds great to people with a few points that see a hunt coming in their way in a few years, but when new people don’t apply, then the number of people applying drops. That money that has to be made up somewhere and it will come from the people that do apply. Also, when 200 people apply for 20 tags, 180 people get an another point every year. It will take nine years to run through all those people....that’s nine points of creep. When 200 people apply for 2 tags...99pts is the end number. Does anyone really want that system? I guess if you have 98pts already you might. It’s a lottery. For most of us, there are hunts we will never have the opportunity to go on. Changing the point system to favor those with the highest number of points will not actually change that reality. All it will do is cheat younger hunters, and make a few people feel better. Most older hunters with lots of points will still never draw the really hard to draw hunts, and for the easy to draw hunts it will just be an every 4-10 year proposition for everyone. Those with lots of points will draw, and then go to the back of the line with everyone else. The only ones who benefit from that are those that only have a few years left in them...if they already have a lot of points.

mtmiller · Nov 28, 2018

warmer said:
The application process change was approved by the GFP Commission, but not accepted by the Legislative Rules Committee. So everything starts all over. At this point I doubt it will be in place for 2019.

Thanks for sharing Warmer, I did not know that. Interesting.

Dooger · Nov 28, 2018

Ok, I think we’re getting away from my original question. My question was for pre-2018 drawings. Why did a hunter with 6 points get a tag and the hunter with 8 points didn’t? It’s my understanding that the hunter with 8 points trumps a hunter with 6. Not that a hunter with 8 points had his name thrown in the hat 8 times.

mtmiller · Nov 28, 2018

Read #2 again.

warmer · Nov 28, 2018

Dooger said:
Ok, I think we’re getting away from my original question. My question was for pre-2018 drawings. Why did a hunter with 6 points get a tag and the hunter with 8 points didn’t? It’s my understanding that the hunter with 8 points trumps a hunter with 6. Not that a hunter with 8 points had his name thrown in the hat 8 times.

Unfortunately, your understanding is incorrect. One hunter has 8 jelly beans in the jar and one hunter has six jelly beans in the jar. The six-bean guy got drawn, against the odds. Another thing to consider, you can apply with up to five other hunters. If one hunter draws, the other five also draw. So the six point guy actually has 36 beans in the pot. If the 8 point guy applies alone, he has poorer odds.

warmer · Nov 28, 2018

mtmiller said:
Thanks for sharing Warmer, I did not know that. Interesting.

Until last week, I had never heard of the "Legislative Rules Committee". I thought the Commission decisions were final.

Washington Hunter · Nov 28, 2018

warmer said:
Another thing to consider, you can apply with up to five other hunters. If one hunter draws, the other five also draw. So the six point guy actually has 36 beans in the pot. If the 8 point guy applies alone, he has poorer odds.

I'd be surprised if that were true. Most states average the points for a group of applicants. It wouldn't make sense to do it the way you said it was done. If that was the case EVERYONE would be applying as a group with as many people in the group as was allowed.

Dakota79 · Nov 28, 2018

warmer said:
Unfortunately, your understanding is incorrect. One hunter has 8 jelly beans in the jar and one hunter has six jelly beans in the jar. The six-bean guy got drawn, against the odds. Another thing to consider, you can apply with up to five other hunters. If one hunter draws, the other five also draw. So the six point guy actually has 36 beans in the pot. If the 8 point guy applies alone, he has poorer odds.

When you apply with a group they use the person with lowest preference point for the whole group I believe.

ZBB · Nov 28, 2018

I didn’t know that either. The email that I received from game and fish made it seem like it was a done deal. I’ll take another stab at the points deal. I read this in one of the documents for elk when I was still in that game. I don’t remember the exact numbers so I’m going to use simple ones for my example. Say there’s 20 tags for a unit. Guys with 10+ points get 50% of those. I doesn’t matter if they have 10 points or 100 they’re all in the same group to draw the 10 tags. Yes, the guy with 100 SHOULD have a better chance, but it’s not a garuntee. Then the group of 5+ points get 40% of the tags, so those 8 tags go to guys with 5,6,7,8 and 9 points. Then the people with 0-4 points get the remaking 10% of the tags. I hope that makes sense, if not then I’m gonna have to tap on this one. I moved to Colorado at the end of the summer so I’m not sure when I’ll get back there to hunt after this year. Honestly I will probably buy points to rifle hunt. If I get a wild hair I’ll just buy the archery tag. That way I could hunt in the hills, in the grasslands or the buttes. Either way good luck with what you decide, it might not be a garuntee but there’s still a chance. Don’t get discouraged.

Edit- I should add that those numbers I threw out were just off the top of my head so I could do the math a little easier. Those aren’t numbers I got from the website.
Zach

Dooger · Nov 28, 2018

Got it! Thanks guys!

Now...to choose a unit...WT or MD? Hmmmmmm...

warmer · Nov 29, 2018

Washington Hunter said:
I'd be surprised if that were true. Most states average the points for a group of applicants. It wouldn't make sense to do it the way you said it was done. If that was the case EVERYONE would be applying as a group with as many people in the group as was allowed.

It's in the application and it is done every year.

warmer · Nov 29, 2018

ZBB said:
I didn’t know that either. The email that I received from game and fish made it seem like it was a done deal. I’ll take another stab at the points deal. I read this in one of the documents for elk when I was still in that game. I don’t remember the exact numbers so I’m going to use simple ones for my example. Say there’s 20 tags for a unit. Guys with 10+ points get 50% of those. I doesn’t matter if they have 10 points or 100 they’re all in the same group to draw the 10 tags. Yes, the guy with 100 SHOULD have a better chance, but it’s not a garuntee. Then the group of 5+ points get 40% of the tags, so those 8 tags go to guys with 5,6,7,8 and 9 points. Then the people with 0-4 points get the remaking 10% of the tags. I hope that makes sense, if not then I’m gonna have to tap on this one. I moved to Colorado at the end of the summer so I’m not sure when I’ll get back there to hunt after this year. Honestly I will probably buy points to rifle hunt. If I get a wild hair I’ll just buy the archery tag. That way I could hunt in the hills, in the grasslands or the buttes. Either way good luck with what you decide, it might not be a garuntee but there’s still a chance. Don’t get discouraged.

Edit- I should add that those numbers I threw out were just off the top of my head so I could do the math a little easier. Those aren’t numbers I got from the website.
Zach

The unsuccessful 10+guys go in with the 5-9 guys. And the unsuccessful 5-10+ guys go in with the 0-4 guys.

ImBillT · Nov 29, 2018

warmer said:
Unfortunately, your understanding is incorrect. One hunter has 8 jelly beans in the jar and one hunter has six jelly beans in the jar. The six-bean guy got drawn, against the odds. Another thing to consider, you can apply with up to five other hunters. If one hunter draws, the other five also draw. So the six point guy actually has 36 beans in the pot. If the 8 point guy applies alone, he has poorer odds.

Then start squaring and cubing points....

In the case of the group app, in most if not all states, there have to be enough tags left for the entire group to draw. Sure six guys with six points each get 36 beans in the pot total for their application, but if there are only five tags left when they get drawn then they don’t draw. In units with hundreds of tags they have better odds, but in units with only a few tags, they have severely worse odds than a solo application. Then of course there are the states that average the points. On a group app in one of those states if guys had 4, 5 and 6 points, their application would only get 5pts, and if there were only two tags left when they drew, they wouldn’t get the hunt.

bmt99 · Nov 29, 2018

Dakota79 said:
When you apply with a group they use the person with lowest preference point for the whole group I believe.

Dakota is correct. Page 3 of deer application. If you have a lot of preference points, you have better odds than with a group. It is not better to apply as a group.

From application: • Applicants with preference points should be aware when applying with applicants with fewer preference points: Doing so gives all
applicants the lowest point represented in the group.

bmt99 · Nov 29, 2018

I agree that it is very unlikely that anything changes for 2019. There was considerable opposition to the changes even though many didn't fully understand the changes. It was not presented well. I was neither for or against. It did seem to handicap NR though. I hear that change in archery start date (back to 2017 start date) and NR tag limit have been discussed, but I don't know if it was just back room comments and not submitted to board. I agree with the start date being moved back to 2017. IMO, I think we can do better with deer management here. Money trumps all though.

SD MD NR Draw Question

Member

Well-known member

Member

Well-known member

Well-known member

Well-known member

Well-known member

Member

Well-known member

Well-known member

Well-known member

Well-known member

Well-known member

Well-known member

Member

Well-known member

Well-known member

Well-known member

Active member

Active member

Similar threads

Forum statistics

Share this page