Wyoming Unit 65 Questions

Per this:https://wgfd.wyo.gov/WGFD/media/cont...3-19-18-4a.pdf

Unit 65 is now a "general" unit with a point restriction. Does this mean that I can apply and is a 100% draw? Last year I had to put in for region J to get a buck mule deer tag...

I'm new to this so just trying to make sure Im reading everything correctly.

Thanks!!

Four22 said:

Per this:https://wgfd.wyo.gov/WGFD/media/cont...3-19-18-4a.pdf

Unit 65 is now a "general" unit with a point restriction. Does this mean that I can apply and is a 100% draw? Last year I had to put in for region J to get a buck mule deer tag...

I'm new to this so just trying to make sure Im reading everything correctly.

Thanks!!

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65 being general isn't new. But the APR is. As is the extended season length. It is still in Region J. And if drawing odds hold, you would be able to draw Region J as a second choice in the regular draw.

Just trying to decipher whether I need to do the special to draw this year with no points or not... Thanks for the info!!

Four22 said:

Just trying to decipher whether I need to do the special to draw this year with no points or not... Thanks for the info!!

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The Regular Draw for J was 89.7% with no PPs last year. The remaining 57 first choice applicants, all of the second choice applicants, and 28 of the 40 third choice applicants drew the 189 Random Draw tags.

Topgun 30-06 said:

The Regular Draw for J was 89.7% with no PPs last year. The remaining 57 first choice applicants, all of the second choice applicants, and 28 of the 40 third choice applicants drew the 189 Random Draw tags.

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Actually, thats not quite correct. The report on the website for random is a demand report. It only shows how many people selected first, second, and third choice for each tag. Some of the people who selected J as second choice will have been drawn in the first, and the same goes for those who selected J as a third choice having drawn their first or second choice.

There were actually a few tags in the leftover draw for J. Albeit, only 8.

icebreaker12 said:

Actually, thats not quite correct. The report on the website for random is a demand report. It only shows how many people selected first, second, and third choice for each tag. Some of the people who selected J as second choice will have been drawn in the first, and the same goes for those who selected J as a third choice having drawn their first or second choice.

There were actually a few tags in the leftover draw for J. Albeit, only 8.

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Nope, you're wrong again and really shouldn't make posts about the draws when you either don't know how they work or how to read the odds reports! There were only so many tags in the Regular Draw and they were all gone before the 0 PP pool was satisfied. That is why there was an 89.7% draw success showing on that chart. That left 57 not drawing that went into the Random Draw and that is the 57 that is showing in the first choice applicant column in that chart. There were 189 tags in that Random Draw, so those 57 drew the way the Wyoming draw works looking at the first choice applicants and satisfying their applications first. Then it went to the second choices and all 104 drew tags, so there were still tags left. Therefore, it went to the third choices and 28 tags went randomly to those 40 that had it as a third choice. Any leftover tags, IF there were 8 like you mentioned and I'm not going to take the time to even look, did not come from that Random Draw since there were none left!

Topgun 30-06 said:

Nope, you're wrong again and really shouldn't make posts about the draws when you either don't know how they work or how to read the odds reports! There were only so many tags in the Regular Draw and they were all gone before the 0 PP pool was satisfied. That is why there was an 89.7% draw success showing on that chart. That left 57 not drawing that went into the Random Draw and that is the 57 that is showing in the first choice applicant column in that chart. There were 189 tags in that Random Draw, so those 57 drew the way the Wyoming draw works looking at the first choice applicants and satisfying their applications first. Then it went to the second choices and all 104 drew tags, so there were still tags left. Therefore, it went to the third choices and 28 tags went randomly to those 40 that had it as a third choice. Any leftover tags, IF there were 8 like you mentioned and I'm not going to take the time to even look, did not come from that Random Draw since there were none left!

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I'm not wrong, and you are. But, I know arguing with you is like arguing with a brick wall.

icebreaker12 said:

I'm not wrong, and you are. But, I know arguing with you is like arguing with a brick wall.

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You'll find out who is wrong just like you did last week when you made your posts disputing me on the 2 doe tags thread, LOL!

Topgun 30-06 said:

You'll find out who is wrong just like you did last week when you made your posts disputing me on the 2 doe tags thread, LOL!

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Notice, I admitted my mistake.

I expect the same from you.

icebreaker12 said:

Actually, thats not quite correct. The report on the website for random is a demand report. It only shows how many people selected first, second, and third choice for each tag. Some of the people who selected J as second choice will have been drawn in the first, and the same goes for those who selected J as a third choice having drawn their first or second choice.

There were actually a few tags in the leftover draw for J. Albeit, only 8.

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If this is the case, then why does the random draw report indicate only 57 1st choice applicants, and not include all those with PPs who drew the tag 1st choice?

LCH said:

If this is the case, then why does the random draw report indicate only 57 1st choice applicants, and not include all those with PPs who drew the tag 1st choice?

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The preference point draw is done first, and those applicants that receive their tag in the preference point draw aren't included in the random draw.

Topgun 30-06 said:

You'll find out who is wrong just like you did last week when you made your posts disputing me on the 2 doe tags thread, LOL!

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icebreaker12 said:

The preference point draw is done first, and those applicants that receive their tag in the preference point draw aren't included in the random draw.

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I guess I misunderstood your post.

I have always looked at the random draw as straight odds, but understand that they are not precisely that. I remember Wapitibob posting about this before, but my takeaway was that the odds are close enough to work for my purposes.

LCH said:

If this is the case, then why does the random draw report indicate only 57 1st choice applicants, and not include all those with PPs who drew the tag 1st choice?

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Because he's wrong as usual and is now 0 for 3. My post explaining it to him after he said I'm wrong is exactly how the draws work and what those numbers are that on on the odds charts. The Random Draw first choice applicant number will always be the number of applicants left that didn't draw in the PP Draw where they go first. That is exactly how you have to use the Random Draw to see how many tags were there and if you can draw on a second or third choice if there were tags left after all the first choice tag applicants were satisfied.

Topgun 30-06 said:

Because he's wrong as usual and is now 0 for 3. My post explaining it to him after he said I'm wrong is exactly how the draws work and what those numbers are that on on the odds charts. The Random Draw first choice applicant number will always be the number of applicants left that didn't draw in the PP Draw where they go first. That is exactly how you have to use the Random Draw to see how many tags were there and if you can draw on a second or third choice if there were tags left after all the first choice tag applicants were satisfied.

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Very simply. If you are right. Explain to me how there can be 8 left over tags when there should be none left over in the regular draw (according to you), and also none leftover in the special draw (there were 12 tags, 8 second choice applicants and 6 3rd choice applicants).

By my math, according to the way you are explaining it, which is wrong, there should be zero leftovers.

LCH said:

I guess I misunderstood your post.

I have always looked at the random draw as straight odds, but understand that they are not precisely that. I remember Wapitibob posting about this before, but my takeaway was that the odds are close enough to work for my purposes.

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What WB mentioned before I think was in regards to the doe tags. You can apply for 2 in one unit on one application and if all the people that are drawn first applied for 2 and there are no tags left the % does not work out like it does when just one tag is being applied for like we're talking about right now. The J draw we're discussing here has the odds of 89.7% of drawing with no PPs in the Regular Draw and that is a straight exact percentage. The 57 people that didn't draw there are the 57 first choice applicants that then went into the Random Draw and that's why that number matches. Then you see that with 189 tags available that there were enough to go around to satisfy all of those remaining first choice applicants. The numbers that aren't exact percentages drawn are the second and third choices since they may have drawn a first choice tag somewhere in another Unit or Region, but it shows them as second and third choices. That is why there could have been 8 leftover tags if there were a few applicants with those choices that had already drawn a first choice tag. There obviously weren't very many in that category, but there were some that probably drew a tag when they didn't think they had a chance on their first choice. I do apologize because my initial explanation wasn't as good as it should have been when I didn't account for why there could be leftovers even though it initially looked like all but a few of those other choices had been filled.

I enjoy a good Top Goon squabble, but can we all agree that the OP should draw a region J tag on first choice in the regular draw without having any pref points?

madtom said:

I enjoy a good Top Goon squabble, but can we all agree that the OP should draw a region J tag on first choice in the regular draw without having any pref points?

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Yes, we can and I apologize to everyone when it's hard to get a point across the way the draws work out.

I was going to start another thread or send you a PM madtom, but I'll just handle our other earlier squabble regarding the early NR elk draw violating their own G&F rules right here. I got some help from my buddy jm77 over the weekend on why the G&F is in violation regarding Regulation 44. Technically they are in direct violation of WY Statute 16-3-103 of the Administrative Procedures Act involving changes they want to make in Regulation 44.

The Wyoming Administrative Procedure Act is found in Title 16, Chapter 3 of Wyoming Statutes. According to Wyo. Stat. § 16-3-102, each agency should lay down the nature and requirements of all procedure available in connection with contested cases. The agency should make available rules, written statements of policy, final orders, decisions and opinions for public inspection and copying. A rule, order or decision is not valid against any party until it has been filed with the registrar of rules and made available for public inspection. In formulating rules of practice, each agency may request the assistance of the attorney general.
Wyo. Stat. § 16-3-103 requires an agency to give at least 45 days’ notice regarding adoption, amendment or repeal of any rule. The notice should be given to the attorney general, the secretary of state’s office as registrar of rules. AN Agency should afford all interested persons reasonable opportunity to submit data views, or arguments, orally or in writing. When an agency finds that an emergency requires the agency to proceed without notice or opportunity for hearing, it may adopt emergency rules. An emergency rule is effective when filed. Such rule is effective for a period of not longer than 120 days. An agency should submit the rule or any amendment, repeal, modification or revision of the rule to the governor for review. The governor has to approve and sign the rule, before it is submitted to the registrar of rules. Upon receipt of a notice of intended action from a state agency, the secretary of state’s office shall maintain a file of these notices and make them available for public inspection during regular business hours.

Here is a link to the Entire Act:

https://administrativelaw.uslegal.com/administrative-procedure-acts/wyoming/

With price increase and PP fee increase I wouldn't count on 0 PP drawing on first choice. Good chance but not guaranteed. This year odds are changing just a bit in the drawings.

wytex said:

With price increase and PP fee increase I wouldn't count on 0 PP drawing on first choice. Good chance but not guaranteed. This year odds are changing just a bit in the drawings.

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Nothing is guaranteed but death and taxes, but it would be a surprise with as many tags that go into the Random Draw for Region J that he wouldn't draw in it or the PP draw first. I don't think I would chance putting it as a second choice though because of what you mentioned.