The bighorn sheep small odds got me thinking. What tags have you had <1% odds?

LopeHunter · Mar 22, 2018

1% odds means you would only draw if applied for that tag for 100 years. Most bighorn ram tags for non-residents are under 1% unless in the WY max point pool. The best elk and deer tags can be sub 1%. Mountain goats and moose. A few pronghorn tags.

So, what did you beat the long odds for over the years? Let's share some hope for those of us bad at math and suckers for the point game 3 card monte action.

grizzly_ · Mar 22, 2018

My wife has drawn a tag with .8% odds (2C deer in NM) and a tag with 1.2% odds (Desert Bighorn in UT). I've drawn a tag with 1.7% chance of drawing (16D elk in NM).

jrabq · Mar 23, 2018

I drew a MT goat tag a few years ago with ~0.5% odds. Last year I drew an AZ elk tag random draw (~1%) and a WY elk tag random draw (~2%). Over the years I've drawn a few other tags in the 1% range,, including an AZ lope tag. Always some luck involved, but if you apply for 30+ tags a year, over a long enough time you should get "lucky" a few times. Still waiting on a bighorn sheep tag in MT, NM, NV, UT, or CO. Unless I move to CO I will likely not live long enough to draw any of those.

brownbear932008 · Mar 23, 2018

Those last two sheep threads has had me thinking hard also. I've never been lucky enough to draw any tag with terrible odds except a Koyokuk moose tag less than 3% odds. Went home empty handed also. So sometimes getting the tag is half the battle.
But what I've really been thinking about is this. I'm at the most 12 years in some of these draws at this point. I'm wondering what the future holds for these bonus/preference point systems 10-20 more years down the road. I have a hard time believing any state with such system can keep their heading as they are now or people will simply drop applying for them? What do you guys think?

rmyoung1 · Mar 23, 2018

I’ve never “shot the moon” and pulled a long-odds tag. When I lived in Colorado I drew a resident mountain goat tag where my oddds were about 20% or so. That’s been it for me. Depressing

El Serio · Mar 23, 2018

Only tag I have ever drawn with less than 1% odds was a NM rifle antelope. The ranch assignment wasn't very good though. No big bucks to be found, but I still had fun.

mtmiller · Mar 23, 2018

I drew a Montana mountain goat tag with zero points in 2008. I don't know the odds, but guessing 1 or 2%.

CampRipleyLF · Mar 23, 2018

grizzly_ said:
My wife has drawn a tag with .8% odds (2C deer in NM) and a tag with 1.2% odds (Desert Bighorn in UT). I've drawn a tag with 1.7% chance of drawing (16D elk in NM).

You're one lucky son of a gun!

The only lucky I can claim is that I drew a deer tag in a Colorado GMU with one point when there was a 10% chance I'd get it..... Which isn't really that special because I'd have a 100% odds of getting it the following year with 2 points.

Zim · Mar 23, 2018

I apply for at least 30 draws/year and over 22 years the lowest odds tag I've drawn was a New Hampshire C2 moose tag with 1% odds. They keep incredibly precise harvest stats, so I knew my odds of taking a 50" bull were ~15%, but most those were via guided hunts. i beat those odds as well, by taking a 53 1/2" top 10 bull for the state that year 2012 DIY. An interesting thing about that was during those 16 year prior, NH was one of only two states (IA) that didn't cheapen my accumulated NR point value like most states have stooped to. Many kuddos to NH I am very thankful to them.

I have noticed that a few other tags I've drawn in the past with 3-15% odds are now less than 1%. Those include NM VV archery elk, UT bison, UT Book Cliffs elk.

BuzzH · Mar 23, 2018

Montana bull moose before points, desert sheep in Arizona, Musk ox in Alaska (no tags issued at all now), and oryx in New Mexico...those were 1% odds or less. Drew Montana mountain goat before points, odds were about 1:30. My Dad has drawn 2 Montana moose tags and ram permit (less than 1%). My brother drew Montana goat and moose, less than 2% odds on those.

I also drew a Montana breaks rifle bull permit twice in 4 years as a NR, once with max points and the other with only 2.

jabber · Mar 23, 2018

I drew the Private Land Antelope tag in Texas in 2016. 1 tag, 1541 applications. Haven't done the math, but I believe that is a little less than 1% odds.

hank4elk · Mar 23, 2018

Drew a couple deer tags in CA X-zones with very low odds....like way below 2%.
One NM NR mule deer tag was only NR tag issued of the 35 possible. That was a 1 in 300+ shot that year.
Saw 3- 30"+ bucks the week before my hunt in one area. Never saw a buck during my hunt & only 7 does. Could have taken multiple nice bulls in a unit not known for elk.lol

Nameless Range · Mar 23, 2018

I've posted it up here numerous times, but I drew a SW MT Moose tag with no points. I think the odds were around 2%. The Hunting Gods just need a sacrifice every now and then.

Kaitum · Mar 23, 2018

Tok Management Area Dall sheep tag (no point system in AK) and MT unit 261 mule deer with no points. I don't know the odds, they were quite low though. I think my muzzleloader cow moose tag for Fort Richardson actually had lower odds than that sheep tag.

---- · Mar 23, 2018

Nameless Range said:
I've posted it up here numerous times, but I drew a SW MT Moose tag with no points. I think the odds were around 2%. The Hunting Gods just need a sacrifice every now and then.

You're luckier than you think you are. Here's a handful of region 3 moose tag odds charts, with the far right column being 0 points.

Kaitum- I didn't believe you had drawn that deer tag until I saw the dead deer.

I've drawn a few good tags, but was always at or near the top of the point pool when I drew them. I think the luckiest I've gotten was on my deer tag with maybe 5% odds. That was with ten points.

My wife and I were 13 when Montana started the points system for moose, sheep and goat. Theoretically we should be in the best position to draw sheep tags in our lifetime, but even in our situation the math will likely never put the odds in our favor. And it's impossible to project what kind of point system Montana will have or if sheep will even be huntable in 20-30 years. If I were 100% dead set on killing a ram I'd be looking at Alaska, and soon.

npaden · Mar 23, 2018

I don't think I've beat 1% odds on any draw yet. The lowest odds on any successful draw for me is 2.35% on my Wyoming Mountain goat in 2014. Several 3.X% and a lot of < 10% but nothing < 1%.

I'll keep trying!!

MThuntr · Mar 23, 2018

My drawing success is embarrassing. I couldn't draw an antelope tag a few years ago with 3 points but odds were 80% in favor of 0 points. Best case scenario is going on hunts with those who were successful in the draw. I believe Randy11 is set for a sheep tag this year.

Kaitum · Mar 23, 2018

Mthuntr said:
I believe Randy11 is set for a sheep tag this year.

He'll be in a MT sheep photo this year, with my ewe

MThuntr · Mar 23, 2018

Kaitum said:
He'll be in a MT sheep photo this year, with my ewe

Ha! I'm considering that option myself.

Southern Elk · Mar 23, 2018

I've never drawn a damn thing. I'm the guy who has the points, but still doesn't draw.

The bighorn sheep small odds got me thinking. What tags have you had <1% odds?

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