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can 2 points get me a bull elk tag in AZ?

smitty661

smitty661

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I have 2 points in AZ and would really like to hunt elk during the rut with my bow next year. I am looking at the units around flagstaff (6A, 6B, 7E, 7W, and 11m) I have a hard time reading the bonus point reports but it looks like you cant draw these units unless you have like 6-7 points? am i reading this correct? If im reading the bonus point report correctly then it looks like nobody with less than 6-7 points drew ANY tags last year. i would think that a handful of guys would have at least got lucky and drew a few tags. Any help would be very much appreciated.

Thanks,
Smitty
 
genesis273, thanks! I'll check out that clip as well as I've wondered that similar question!

ElkNut/Paul
 
Here's a quick synopsis in case people don't want to chase down the information elsewhere:

20% of tags in Arizona are given to the highest point holder in the bonus point pass, of which 5% of the total tags CAN be given to nonresidents. You're not going to draw in that pool so let's move on. Then 80% of the tags go into the random pass, of which 5% of the total tags CAN be given to nonresidents. So let's take for example a hunt with 100 tags. The first 20 tags go to the top point holders, but the cap is 5 nonresidents can draw in that round. If the top 20 point holders include say 8 nonresidents then the lowest of those 3 won't draw in this round. Then everyone who didn't draw in that round goes to the random pass where the rest of the 80 tags are awarded, of which only 5 can go to nonresidents.

How that pass works is each person gets assigned a random number for every bonus point they have plus one. They then take the lowest number you have and that's your number. Those numbers are sorted for every person in the draw by lowest to highest. The people with the lowest random number get the tag, unless you're a nonresident and 5 nonresidents already drew tags from this pass. It's actually a bit more complicated than that since Arizona looks at your first two choices, so perhaps one of the nonresidents in front of you put in for that hunt code second choice and instead was lucky enough to draw their first choice. Either way I think you get the point.

Anyone can draw basically any tag with no points (assuming there's at least 20 total tags for that hunt code). You'll just need to be lucky and get a very low random number.
 
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My buddy in Wyoming has drawn the 6A September archery tag in 2011 and 2016, so it is possible without a lot of points if you get lucky.
 
11M is your best odds as with 2 points and can expect have around 10% odds to pull one of about 4 random NR tags in each of the two "rut" archery hunts. You could put both the first and second 11M archery hunts as your application choices. The other hunts around Flagstaff are expected to be sub 6% odds per hunt with 2 points. 11M is not a traditional Western "big country" hunt, though. You might find yourself hunting around the edge of golf courses, next to a subdivision, near an active mountain bike trail, etc. Private land abounds. Some years first season is better, some years second season is better.
 
Thanks guys. I realized i was looking at the 20% bonus pass report. so that makes since why i was seeing that nobody with less than 6 points was drawing those units. If im going into the random draw i would think my best bet would be 6A because they will have more tags awarded in the random drawing? We will be putting in as a group of 2 so i think that the chances of drawing 11m would be less likely due to the amount of tags available in the random drawing. With 700 tags available in 6a there would be 560 tags available after the 20% draw. Assuming that 5 % of the 20% went to non residents, that would leave 5% of 560 left for the rest of us non residents. so i would have my chance at drawing 28 tags of those 560. Thanks for all of the information guys!
 
NR are limited to 10% of the total tags: of which half (or 5% of Total tags) can go to NR in the bonus pass. The other half (and any that weren't drawn by NR in the bonus pass) will go to the random 1/2 pass.

Example: Unit 6A: 700 total tags: Up to 70 can go to NR. 35 went to NR in the bonus pass and 35 went to NR in the random pass. You had to have at least 6 points to have a chance on the bonus pass.

Unit 11M 1st hunt: 80 total tags: Up to 8 can go to NR. 3 went to NR in the bonus pass and 5 went to NR in the random pass. You had to have at least 6 points to have a chance in the bonus pass. Resident hunters had more points or were just luckier in the bonus pass because up to 4 could have went to NR in the bonus pass, yet only 3 were drawn. The remaining tag for NR went in the random pass.

Unit 11M 2nd Hunt: 80 total tags: Up to 8 can go to NR. 0 went to NR in the bonus pass and 5 went in the random pass. Residents had the higher points and no NR drew a bonus pass tag. NR could have drawn up to 8 tags in the random pass but resident demand was high or NR were just unlucky and only 5 were drawn.

I estimate your odds for unit 6a at around 5-7%, 11m early at 7-9%, and 11m late at 12-15%.

Just because it's called the random pass doesn't mean the points are out of the window. People with 3, 4, 5, 6 etc all have a better chance of drawing than you do, but you do have a chance.
 
Guys,
Can someone please tell me if I need to buy the NR license in order to buy a PP?
My schedule will not allow me to travel in 2018 to hunt, but want to buy a PP in advance if possible.
I am a NR but my friend who is an AZ Resident, drew the Late Bull Rifle on his 1st try with (0) PP.
I accompanied him and (2) others to hunt 7W from Dec 1st-7th and we saw (0) Bulls and maybe 7 or 8 cows total.
We hunted very hard the entire time and my guess is that the early hunt would be 1000% better due to expected (bugling bulls).
Many guys said that there were MANY more Elk at this time over in 7E ( other side of Rt 180) due to prescribed burning in 7W?
Only the Elk really know, but if someone can confirm or correct me on the need to buy the license in order to buy the PP?

10Dogs
 
Yes you have to buy a license to purchase a point. The link provided in post #3 is a great short video explaining AZ
 
Thank you Don K

I was misinformed during my hunt but these guys are all Residents and probably not as concerned over the license money.

As a follow up question if I do not draw in a given year is the license refundable?

10Dogs
 
10Dogs said:
Thank you Don K

I was misinformed during my hunt but these guys are all Residents and probably not as concerned over the license money.

As a follow up question if I do not draw in a given year is the license refundable?

10Dogs
Click to expand...

I believe you do not get a refund if you don't draw. But, again, with Randy and YouTube being your friend as I mentioned earlier, watch this video and he really does an excellent job explaining how to apply, draw, but also what you can do if you don't draw. He goes over the opportunities if unsuccessful starting at around 8:30.
https://youtu.be/FxVUJ13RRAE
Wasn't trying to be sarcastic with referring to using Randy's videos as a tool, but he does an incredible job with laying out all of the western states application processes so that even a dummy like me can understand.
 
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Yes you do need a nonresident license every year. You'll have to buy a nonresident hunt/fish combo which ran $160 this past year, then pay an additional $15 application fee per species. None of it is refundable. So if you just want to apply for elk it's $175 per year as a nonresident up front.

An additional little Arizona detail is that they offer something called Point Guard. It's $5 per application and it allows you to turn in your tag for any reason before the hunt and not lose your bonus points, and even add a bonus point as if you didn't draw. It's a cool program if you apply in a lot of different states and know you might end up with too many tags to hunt. The only kicker is they don't refund you for the price of the tag. For a resident that's only $148 which most people could probably swallow but for nonresidents elk tags are $665.
 
Also in case anyone is wondering, there's a website called TopRut that has all these draw percentages easily findable for previous years. Don't ask me if the info is 100% correct and if GoHunt is better or any of that stuff because I know these websites compete with each other. But i believe the draw odds are either correct or close enough to inform you of what to do with your applications. Here's what it says for your hunts for a nonresident with 2 points:

6A: 7.1%
6B: 5.5%
7E: 4.1%
7W: 1.4%
11M early: 8.9%
11M late: 14.9%
 
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