Montana Elk Big Game Combo 2018, 2019 and going forward, how tough will the odds get

ErictheRed

Active member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
241
Location
Michigan
For those in the know, I heard nearly 5,000 applicants got turned away for the NR Big Game Combo tag in 2017. This was quite a difference from prior years where there were always some tags not sold. Some of these folks jumped back in and got the Elk only tag. My question is do you think this is a fluke or will the odds continue to get tougher in Montana? Do you think the State will reconsider the NR Guaranteed tag or risk losing the faithful to Colorado and Idaho? I've hunted the same area with the same friends for 7 years now and I feel like that relationship is in serious jeopardy in the years ahead.
 
The state is guaranteed the same amount of revenue as long as they sell out, so they aren't really "losing" anyone to Colorado or Idaho. It's already crowded. I don't think we could support the number of hunters that a guaranteed tag would call for. If we go by the 5,000 number this year, that's a lot of extra hunters.
 
I'd be surprised if the number of tags increased or odds improved. So you'll probably want to start thinking about a plan B or C.
 
Not selling out is actually a recent thing. It will just go back to the way it was when they sold out every year. If people don't draw they will go elsewhere that year.
 
Was this the first year for the big game preference point? I grabbed one after not drawing a deer tag this year.
 
It use to be about 60% odds when I began putting in years ago. I think the deer was around 25%. So it's still not bad odds I guess. Just plan for a backup state.
 
I am hoping to come back to Montana next year, just like previous years it will be a NR big game combo application, this will be my 4th visit if i succeed in getting drawn, i am getting to know a few area's, but if i didn't draw i have no idea what the options would be for me as a NR in Idaho/Wyoming/Colorado.
The problem for me is exchange rates, if i applied for several states, then applied for a refund, i will get hammered with transaction fee's, any suggestions please?
Or maybe just apply to Montana and take a chance, no draw, no hunting for me.
Cheers
Richard
 
If they sell out another year or two in a row,I'm sure they will increase the fees and bring it back to basically otc tags again.Montana seems to get greedy 1st,then other states slowly follow.What's the new price tags for Wyoming in 2018??I actually thought the combo was a great deal if you could make 2 trips out to hunt.When you add a deer tag with an elk tag in other states it was more then the combo tag.Took a few years for others to realize I guess.I still think they will raise fees within 2-3 years though,but only to NR
 
I am hoping to come back to Montana next year, just like previous years it will be a NR big game combo application, this will be my 4th visit if i succeed in getting drawn, i am getting to know a few area's, but if i didn't draw i have no idea what the options would be for me as a NR in Idaho/Wyoming/Colorado.
The problem for me is exchange rates, if i applied for several states, then applied for a refund, i will get hammered with transaction fee's, any suggestions please?
Or maybe just apply to Montana and take a chance, no draw, no hunting for me.
Cheers
Richard

Could you open a bank account here to use for application year after year? Say, leave $2000 in it and have refunds sent back to it instead of to you personally.
 
Could you open a bank account here to use for application year after year? Say, leave $2000 in it and have refunds sent back to it instead of to you personally.

Thanks, i think my other half might not be up for that idea, she doesn't mind me coming back every 2 years, or until i am too old!
Cheers
Richard
 
It won't be long.I'd bet $200-$300 more within 5 years

Count on it. Wyoming bumps up its tags for 2018. MT will follow again after the multi-$100 jump less than a decade ago. Is now a race to determine what the NR market will bear.

Out-of-state hunting has not been a prudent way to obtain bargain-priced meat for decades. Now, the cost per pound (assuming only harvest every 2nd or 3rd tag) when add up travels costs and gear repair and tags and licenses and application fees and ammo or new arrows and broadheads then means that that elk steak in the freezer is around $20 a pound if are being honest when add up the costs. F&G is not shedding any tears as the non-resident hunter becomes predominantly a bunch of Richie Riches. If you have a powerful outfitter lobby in your state then that is even more pressure on a state to squeeze out Joe Sixpack because the frugal hunter will not be scratching out a $5000 - $15,000 check to use an outfitter.
 
In the end, most NR hunters are not really chasing the $/lb. it's a vacation/adventure like Disney, a cruise or some other holiday trip. The tag is a small part of the overall cost of the trip. The NR market will tolerate increases. The problem these western states have is they don't charge enough for their own residents. That's an revenue block that needs a closer look.
 
You see the same things play out year after year across multiple states, a state creates a new system or ups fees and the odds temporarily go up but eventually people get on board, inflation chips away at the cost of the tags because most aren't tied to inflation and the odds will deteriorate until some other significant change in fee structure, habitat or the economy. Draw odds only continue to deteriorate nearly across the board most places in the west year over year as more people apply, or guys start applying in more and more states. Honestly the tag fee structure is way down the list of what I consider when I apply to a given state compared to opportunity, access and hunt quality. Tag fee's generally end up being a fraction of the trip cost even when going DIY

Hunters who go to the same drawn unit year over year are vulnerable to draw odds eventually displacing their "sure thing" the same ways guys who have hunted the same farm in the East will eventually get booted off the property due to a land sale or a family event. With hunting spots, its never a question of "if" you will lose a spot, but rather "when" an opportunity goes away or becomes less frequent. The trade off with public land and drawn units is that your frequency just goes down rather than the complete opportunity.
 
The tag is a small part of the overall cost of the trip.

Man I'm not sure which state you hunt but in MT the license cost is almost 50% of my out of pocket expenses for that trip. It is getting pretty crazy IMO. I am right on the fence as we speak along with several different guys I've taken with me over the years. I think another 100-200 bucks is gonna really make a difference in what people are willing to fork over on those tags. Or any other western state for that matter. I've been very seriously trying to weigh this in my head the last couple of years.
 
Are you resident or NR? I'm speaking to the NR
Costs include travel, hotel, food, maybe outfitter (private/public) taxidermy, license, gear. For a non-resident costs are huge.
 
If you start calculating $/lb you're going to get depressed real quick.

It's entertainment, leisure, etc. and yeah it sucks that it's so expensive. Get a cheap doe tag if you just want to go fill your freezer. In the old days it seemed like it was an every other year draw on the general tag and sometimes you got lucky and got it in back to back years.
 
Back
Top