Wyoming second choice draw odds?

Is there a way to calculate your 2nd choice draw odds for Wyoming antelope? What happens to the tags that are left after the 1st choice drawing in the preference point pool? Do they go to your second choice in that pool and so on?
Thanks for any input.

Deleted what I had because I didn't read your question all the way through, I had an example of the random draw and didn't take into consideration your question about the PP pool. My mistake!

No worries JL.

Adding to my question...do the tags left after 1st choice in the special preference point draw go to second and third choice in that same pool?

Here is my understanding but some smart WY folks will chime in and correct if I am off base.

You can figure your odds for 1st Choice for LAST year. Things change year to year so odds could dramatically improve or decline. The Special pool and Regular pool stay separate. Your 2nd choice is random and ignores your accumulated preference points as does your 3rd choice.

Say in 2017 your 1st choice is 5% in Special Draw Preference Points draw at your point level to draw 1 of 15 tags (75% of the bucket of special tags) and 1% in the Random Special Draw to draw 1 of 5 tags (25% of the bucket of special tags). There has been slight point creep at the middling units and definite point creep at the better units so keep that in mind as think about 2018.

Pick a 2nd choice and 3rd choice. Say the 2nd choice was 8% chance to draw 1 of 50 tags that fell to 2nd Choice and the 3rd choice was 40% chance to draw 1 of 20 tags that fell to 3rd choice.

You win if you draw any tag, right? You get to add your odds. 5% you draw 1st Choice in Preference pass then 1% in Random so 6% chance you get that 1st choice tag then add 8% chance will draw the 2nd Choice so 14% chance you get either 1st or 2nd Choice then add 40% for your 3rd Choice so 54% chance you get a tag with your 3 choices. If 2018 behaves as did 2017, obviously.

I tracked pronghorn tags in 2014 and 2015 and 2016 that fall to 2nd and 3rd choice and even to leftover and the trend is even the less-popular pronghorn units are less likely to have as many tags fall this year as last year whether looking units that the prior year had 2nd or 3rd or leftover. Some units have jumped up a level so a unit that had a few 3rd Choice tags in recent years is now a 2nd Choice unit if want to have tags left to draw with your choice.

Ok...let me give an example.

Say unit xx has 75 tags that go into the special preference draw. Only 5 people apply for that unit as first choice so there is a surplus of 70 tags.

Do those 70 tags then go to 2nd and 3rd choice applicants within the special draw pool?

redwoood said:

Ok...let me give an example.

Say unit xx has 75 tags that go into the special preference draw. Only 5 people apply for that unit as first choice so there is a surplus of 70 tags.

Do those 70 tags then go to 2nd and 3rd choice applicants within the special draw pool?

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Yes 70 tags will go to the 2nd choice draw. If only 40 people apply for it as 2nd choice then 30 will make it to 3rd choice draw. None of the tags will go to the regular priced draw.

Alabama said:

Yes 70 tags will go to the 2nd choice draw. If only 40 people apply for it as 2nd choice then 30 will make it to 3rd choice draw. None of the tags will go to the regular priced draw.

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Wrong. If nobody draws those tags as second and third choices in the special, they absolutely go the reegular draw.

Plus, it's tough to determine draw odds on second and third choices since the stats only tell you how many second and third choice aplicants there were in each area, some of them drew their first choice.

I am not sure you can actually figure out the true odds for second and third choice tags in Wyoming because they don't release all the data. You may be able to get it, but I am sure the process is not easy.

BuzzH said:

Wrong. If nobody draws those tags as second and third choices in the special, they absolutely go the reegular draw.

Plus, it's tough to determine draw odds on second and third choices since the stats only tell you how many second and third choice aplicants there were in each area, some of them drew their first choice.

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I stand corrected. My bad to redwood.

Alabama said:

I stand corrected. My bad to redwood.

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The wyoming draw is not easy to understand...it confuses lots of people, even those that it shouldn't.

I didn't believe you at first but I looked at the special random draw plus the leftover draw info on the G&F website and sure enough something happened to those tags that weren't drawn as 2nd and 3rd choice in the special draw. No disrespect to you but I've been applying in WY for 6-7 years and I thought I had it figured out. Although I mostly just shoot for the moon on elk tags so I mostly just focus on 1st choice odds.

Your explanation makes as much sense as any. I don't see them going back to residents as that wouldn't bring in nearly as much money. So now my question is: do they go into the random regular priced draw or the preference regular priced draw or split 75-25? If that's the case then they would have to complete the special draw portion 1st so they could get the new regular priced total quota before it's split.

There was a discussion over on another forum that you frequent about the way party apps are reflected in the draw reports, that's the only thing about WY's draw system that I didn't think I had figured out. Now I know that 2nd and 3rd choice draw reports also include successful 1st choice applicants, therefore you can't calculate your true odds.

I wasn't trying to mislead the OP, heck I feel like I have a better grasp on western draws than 90% of non-residents and I still give wrong info. My head hurts after typing all of that lol.