Climate warming and declining moose populations

AlaskaHunter · Jul 25, 2017

There was a mule deer (very rare in AK) killed on the highway near Fairbanks which led to several stories
about potential tick migrations to Alaska's moose population, and how ticks can affect
moose populations in southern areas like New Hampshire.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/20...hDM/story.html

This also appears to be a problem in Maine:
http://mainepublic.org/post/ticks-love-moose-right-death-heres-why#stream/0

Moose populations have declined in MN and ND likely due to a complex of
ticks, liver flukes, and other factors.

In Alaska, the good news is with climate warming, we had record wildfire seasons in 2004, 2005, 2015,
so moose should benefit with increased prime browse habitat.
And fall snow is later likely leading to less predation at least for the first part of the winter.

Moose have expanded as shrubs have expanded under a warming climate...
http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0152636

How are Shiras moose populations doing? I wonder if they are stable since they have evolved in
a relatively warm climate, while declining populations in the Lake States, Ontario, and New England
may be more vulnerable to a warming climate?

maginnis · Jul 25, 2017

Very interesting a muley that far north. I have heard Wyoming has had some big moose declines. MT is ok from what I know but I did have a friend find a dead Bull this spring, he had shed his antlers and was growing nubs already.

MinnesotaHunter · Jul 25, 2017

MN moose are experiencing the quadruple threat: brainworm, liver flukes, winter ticks, and predation. In the most recent studies here in MN it is about 50/50 parasite/illness (19) vs predation (21).

Another contributing factor is habitat. Slower timber activities and fire suppression are reducing the regrowth habitat that our moose need. Our most dramatic decline (8000 to 4000 moose) took place from 2009-2012, and since then has seemed to level back off. This doesn't corelate with an increase in wolf number though (MN has remained pretty steady with about 450-500 packs since around 2000), but it seems like it could correlate with an increase in Deer populations. I have been keeping a pretty close eye on the research related to our moose, and it still doesn't seem very clear. We have had some pretty harsh winters recently and it seems to have knocked the whitetails back a bit, up in the primary moose habitat, and the MNDNR has declared war on deer in the moose range as well, but long term it is hard to say. More and more, I wonder if moose in the lower 48 is going to prove to be jump a blip on the historical radar.

Ben Lamb · Jul 25, 2017

MinnesotaHunter said:
MN moose are experiencing the quadruple threat: brainworm, liver flukes, winter ticks, and predation. In the most recent studies here in MN it is about 50/50 parasite/illness (19) vs predation (21).

Another contributing factor is habitat. Slower timber activities and fire suppression are reducing the regrowth habitat that our moose need. Our most dramatic decline (8000 to 4000 moose) took place from 2009-2012, and since then has seemed to level back off. This doesn't corelate with an increase in wolf number though (MN has remained pretty steady with about 450-500 packs since around 2000), but it seems like it could correlate with an increase in Deer populations. I have been keeping a pretty close eye on the research related to our moose, and it still doesn't seem very clear. We have had some pretty harsh winters recently and it seems to have knocked the whitetails back a bit, up in the primary moose habitat, and the MNDNR has declared war on deer in the moose range as well, but long term it is hard to say. More and more, I wonder if moose in the lower 48 is going to prove to be jump a blip on the historical radar.

The common denominators in Shiras moose declines I've read have been habitat and disease. Predation certainly becomes a larger factor when the first two are in play. If the climatic conditions are causing increase infestations and weakening moose, then predators like wolves will key in on that and take them out. Not sure how the whitetail issue is working on Moose in the west, but it is having negative impacts on mule deer. Climate drives everything else. It's the 900 pound gorilla in the room and it's a controversial subject in the United States so it often gets left to the side when we talk wildlife. It's sad and nothing at the federal level will happen regarding this until a new administration or congress comes in.

Good post.

MinnesotaHunter · Jul 25, 2017

I think changing climate is affecting all wildlife good and bad, and if we look past our modern narcissism, it always has. This is not to claim we don't play some role in it, just providing some larger historical context.

From what I have heard in discussions of late, archeological evendence would suggest that previous climate change is what brought moose to the lower 48 in the first place, and that they haven't had a ecologically significant presence historically. In MN's Arrowhead/BWCAW (transition area into Boreal forest zone and primary moose habitat) the primary ungulate in 1900 appears to be Caribou, and have been sighted there as late as 2004. the fact they receeded north, it makes sense that the moose might follow as environment conditions shift. We are also starting to see hardwoods creep into the BWCAW; which has always been aspen/jackpine/balsam/other softwoods; this is a pretty clear sign of shifting climate, and is paving the way for deer and the parasites they carry.

Ben Lamb · Jul 25, 2017

TRCP, along with many other groups, did a good series on this called Beyond Season's End: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gYx_ncjJV0U

Moose aren't following the caribou movement north, just losing ground in habitat they pioneered over 150 years ago. Central Canadian moose populations are suffering similar issues as western moose and MN moose.

Colorado seems to be the outlier here, with better moose populations than other Rocky Mtn states, and North Dakota is seeing more moose as well. Habitat changes dictate fluctuating populations, changing habitats, but what we are seeing, by and large, is a depopulation of moose in North America.

To your point of things always change - very true. Our question then becomes: DO we accept this as conservationists who are looking at a solvable issue, or do we ignore it and hope it goes away?

1_pointer · Jul 25, 2017

I think an even earlier question that might need to be answered is if this is a "solvable issue"?

3855WIN · Jul 25, 2017

It seems like harsh winters kill more mule deer and antelope than Warming does.

jryoung · Jul 25, 2017

3855WIN said:
It seems like harsh winters kill more mule deer and antelope than Warming does.

Poor range conditions due to warming are a leading factor. If they go into winter with poor health, they aren't going to make it. Coupled with the potential for more severe weather swings, ie harsher winters.

BigHornRam · Jul 25, 2017

Wonder why Colorado is an outlier in the west? Let me ponder that a while.

BigHornRam · Jul 25, 2017

1_pointer said:
I think an even earlier question that might need to be answered is if this is a "solvable issue"?

If humans are to blame for climate change, the issue will some day solve itself.

Ben Lamb · Jul 25, 2017

1_pointer said:
I think an even earlier question that might need to be answered is if this is a "solvable issue"?

Agreed.

If it is concluded that it's too expensive or too hard, then we should just acknowledge that we don't really care enough to do the work our forefathers would have tackled.

MinnesotaHunter · Jul 25, 2017

Ben Lamb said:
Our question then becomes: DO we accept this as conservationists who are looking at a solvable issue, or do we ignore it and hope it goes away?

Thanks for the links, Ben. I have to look through those.

I didn't intend to sounds overly fatalistic. It just helps me understand the whole picture.

MinnesotaHunter · Jul 25, 2017

BigHornRam said:
Wonder why Colorado is an outlier in the west? Let me ponder that a while.

Could higher elevations buffer them from the heat and parasite vectors?

Ben Lamb · Jul 25, 2017

MinnesotaHunter said:
Thanks for the links, Ben. I have to look through those.

I didn't intend to sounds overly fatalistic. It just helps me understand the whole picture.

Well, we do live in interesting times. Fatalistic seems to be many of our default settings. I'm trying to change that on my end.

BigHornRam · Jul 25, 2017

MinnesotaHunter said:
Could higher elevations buffer them from the heat and parasite vectors?

Bighole Valley is one of the coldest spots in the lower 48. My money is on some other factor. Think hard. What does the Bighole have that Colorado doesn't?

Ben Lamb · Jul 25, 2017

BigHornRam said:
Bighole Valley is one of the coldest spots in the lower 48. My money is on some other factor. Think hard. What does the Bighole have that Colorado doesn't?

Fetty's, Jackson Hole Hot Springs, wide, open spaces and some great people.

Maine, central Canada and many other places are facing moose population declines and it's not because of wolves. It's not a predation causation, it's the habitat. You can look in places like the Boulder & Ruby valleys to see moose populations growing down low, while abandoning the high country. That's not wolves - it's food.

MinnesotaHunter · Jul 25, 2017

BigHornRam said:
Bighole Valley is one of the coldest spots in the lower 48. My money is on some other factor. Think hard. What does the Bighole have that Colorado doesn't?

Grayling?!?!?

Not having woofs can't hurt I guess. That being said, I have had quite a few conversations with the folks doing the research out of UMD here in MN and they seem alot less concerned about wolves, and way more about deer. Isle Royal out in Lake Superior is an interesting petry dish of what can happen when you keep the deer out of the equation. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolves_and_moose_on_Isle_Royale https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PdwnfPurXcs

AlaskaHunter · Jul 25, 2017

What states have a declining Shiras moose population?
Utah? Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, Colorado?

I have not read about Shiras having liver fluke, tick or Meningeal (brain) worm problems
like moose back east and the lake states have experienced?

Many Shiras subpopulations are high elevation "island populations",
thus isolated from disease and parasite spread from other moose subpopulations?

jryoung · Jul 25, 2017

Hasn't Colorado's bear population increased significantly over the past couple of decades? I can't imagine that helps the moose population?

Climate warming and declining moose populations

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