Well I looked at gohunt last year and wasnt impressed with how they calculated NM odds simply by first , second and third choice divided by the applicant pool for each respective pool. Also I've heard that the NR random odds for AZ this yr for some units that I feel have a roughly 5 10% draw odds they have in the 1% range but I haven't saw that with my own eyes but was told a couple units random odds from someone that does subscribe. So it could be diff than what I've stated and maybe their NM odds are diff this yr?
Draw Odds Matter
- Thread starter Big Fin
- Start date
WapitiBob
Well-known member
They have updated their odds for the 2017 draw cycle. Totally different than last year.
lostinOregon
Member
- Joined
- Dec 12, 2010
- Messages
- 5
I don't post as much on this site as others as I have had difficulty keeping myself logged in. I know that some of you that have chimed in on this topic know your stuff. Here are a few of my thoughts. I have subscribed to several of the mentioned and subtly mentioned services that offer information on draws. About 12 years ago I expanded my hunting from just Oregon and Montana to all of the western states that offer mule deer, my passion. What I have found is that often times there is mis-information and flat out errors and a lack of research.
I do subscribe to Go-hunt and have watched the video as mentioned by Big Fin and I use their odds as information when I am trying to ascertain the tags I am looking for. I will also give them credit for listing the 5 choices in the NV draw first, as I always knew that the system was extremely tough to draw a tag and that the true odds were very, very bad.
With that said, I went to look on go hunt for a new WY hunt that started last year, 119-2 and it isn't even in the data base. The late hunt for 119 deer is there, however the new hunt that was added in 2016 isn't even listed. I really focus on mule deer, so I ask myself, what other hunts are missing? Do they just add the new data from the WY website from the draw and if so, wouldn't they have caught this hunt this year if it is updated for 2017? I guess I would expect that if you are selling the information you would not leave out a new hunt. So I suggest to folks that they should always check the data against the other data available before pinning all of their hopes on their yearly applications.
I am not a math major, but I have a different thought on draw odds. Everyone publishes the draw odds of last year. They have absolutely no effect at all on this years draw odds. I see often where folks will say, "I have 10 points in CO and I am going to draw unit XX this year for 3rd season." They are looking at last years draw odds and everyone with 10 points drew a tag last year, so I'm going to draw. They verify the data on their paid source of information and they are already packing their bags.
There are two major factors that will affect 2017 draw odds. The first is not who drew last year or how many points it took, it is how many people remain in a certain point pool. I will give an example. Hypothetically, last year there were 10 non resident tags for a CO 3rd season deer season. There were 10 non resident applicants and everyone drew their tag. Everyone is happy and the odds say 100 percent with 10 points. What no one looks at is how many people are in the 9 point pool. So this year, on the same hunt there are 40 people that applied last year with 9 points and they all join in this year now with 10 points. Another 10 people join in due to the "fool" factor (explained later). Your draw odds are now 20 percent with 10 points, not the 100 percent every expected. The second variable is what I call the "fool" factor. This is the influence that print media, including sites like this that influence the image of a unit. An example from this website that I expect to see affect applications this year is NV unit 121 late. Bigfin showed some impressive deer and great success. I believe that a bunch more people will add that to their application this year based upon what they saw and read. With HF and their top units list, Eastman's and their blue chip, green chip and their blogs on top hunts. All of these affect draw odds for the upcoming year. Another simple explanation is when the 5 year season structure in CO changes and everyone, I mean everyone jumps in on the late dates causing an additional 2-5 points to draw a unit from the year before. I have already seen Eastmans' talk about not applying in WY next year due to the winter. That will affect the draw odds, sometimes slightly and sometimes greatly.
If you could build and algorithm that would look at the point pools and then factor in all of the media you would then have accurate draw odd predictions. Because just simply printing last years draw odds, even if you believe they are the most accurate available, do not take into consideration preference point pools and the fool factor.
Rich
I do subscribe to Go-hunt and have watched the video as mentioned by Big Fin and I use their odds as information when I am trying to ascertain the tags I am looking for. I will also give them credit for listing the 5 choices in the NV draw first, as I always knew that the system was extremely tough to draw a tag and that the true odds were very, very bad.
With that said, I went to look on go hunt for a new WY hunt that started last year, 119-2 and it isn't even in the data base. The late hunt for 119 deer is there, however the new hunt that was added in 2016 isn't even listed. I really focus on mule deer, so I ask myself, what other hunts are missing? Do they just add the new data from the WY website from the draw and if so, wouldn't they have caught this hunt this year if it is updated for 2017? I guess I would expect that if you are selling the information you would not leave out a new hunt. So I suggest to folks that they should always check the data against the other data available before pinning all of their hopes on their yearly applications.
I am not a math major, but I have a different thought on draw odds. Everyone publishes the draw odds of last year. They have absolutely no effect at all on this years draw odds. I see often where folks will say, "I have 10 points in CO and I am going to draw unit XX this year for 3rd season." They are looking at last years draw odds and everyone with 10 points drew a tag last year, so I'm going to draw. They verify the data on their paid source of information and they are already packing their bags.
There are two major factors that will affect 2017 draw odds. The first is not who drew last year or how many points it took, it is how many people remain in a certain point pool. I will give an example. Hypothetically, last year there were 10 non resident tags for a CO 3rd season deer season. There were 10 non resident applicants and everyone drew their tag. Everyone is happy and the odds say 100 percent with 10 points. What no one looks at is how many people are in the 9 point pool. So this year, on the same hunt there are 40 people that applied last year with 9 points and they all join in this year now with 10 points. Another 10 people join in due to the "fool" factor (explained later). Your draw odds are now 20 percent with 10 points, not the 100 percent every expected. The second variable is what I call the "fool" factor. This is the influence that print media, including sites like this that influence the image of a unit. An example from this website that I expect to see affect applications this year is NV unit 121 late. Bigfin showed some impressive deer and great success. I believe that a bunch more people will add that to their application this year based upon what they saw and read. With HF and their top units list, Eastman's and their blue chip, green chip and their blogs on top hunts. All of these affect draw odds for the upcoming year. Another simple explanation is when the 5 year season structure in CO changes and everyone, I mean everyone jumps in on the late dates causing an additional 2-5 points to draw a unit from the year before. I have already seen Eastmans' talk about not applying in WY next year due to the winter. That will affect the draw odds, sometimes slightly and sometimes greatly.
If you could build and algorithm that would look at the point pools and then factor in all of the media you would then have accurate draw odd predictions. Because just simply printing last years draw odds, even if you believe they are the most accurate available, do not take into consideration preference point pools and the fool factor.
Rich
WapitiBob
Well-known member
You're not the only one that looks at point pools instead of year old odds.
Last edited:
Electraman
New member
YIKES !!! This one will give you a headache for sure, yet like a train wreck can't stop looking. Been playing the point game for almost 20 years now. I watch the point pools, year old odds, couple different publications, bout anything I can get my hands on. I've come to the realization that I'm not that lucky and the tags are more than likely harder to draw than what I'm reading. Probably guilty of that Fool Factor. App season is upon us once again. I'll be putting in for Utah this weekend and several others to follow. Premium Tags are truly Golden Tickets we're all hoping to get. I would like to wish Good Luck to all in the upcoming draws. Thanks Finn for a great thread. Electraman
