Draw Odds Matter

Big Fin · Feb 14, 2017

Many of you who follow our platforms know that my other job, CPA, is heavily number-based. Given that, I spend even more time number crunching western state draw odds in my effort to acquire the 10-12 tags needed for a TV show season.

Here is a video that goHUNT. com posted to their YouTube channel about how the draw odds they publish are way different, and in far greater detail, than the other popular services out there that they mention in this video. The methodology of goHUNT.com is far different than "simplified first choice odds" most other services provide.

I subscribe to three of the four services mentioned in the video and subscribed to one of the others mention for a decade before eventually dropping that error-prone service. The reason I subscribe to so many services is that I want to see where other people are being directed by information or suggestions provided by those other services; either because of overly simplified (read incorrect) odds being published and/or because the group is also a booking agency and the units where good outfitter relationships exists happen to be units that get promoted heavily. The odds I use for my actual application strategy are those from goHUNT.

In the investing world my strategy would get me labeled as a "contrarian." Yes, I am a contrarian who wants the best information I can find. The best odds I can find are with goHUNT.

Here is their video explaining the differences in the HYPERGEOMETRIC WALLENIUS DISTRIBUTION MODEL used by goHUNT and the simplified methods of others mentioned in the video.

[video=youtube_share;ScgDlvT4Axs]https://youtu.be/ScgDlvT4Axs[/video]

Not sure their production style will make it on the comedy circuit, but I think that Ben Stoner could be a stand in for Red Green's nephew Harold, if Ben would put on some weight, get an overbite, and grease his hair.

BuzzH · Feb 14, 2017

I think their example of unit 114 Wyoming elk is not accurate.

If the quota is only 1, the only way that 3 tags were issued is if a party application was drawn.

So, the odds very well may be 1 in 3.

dan.kirkpatrick · Feb 14, 2017

I do like how they have come up with the Nevada draw odds,makes sense,,though the actual % is lower than id like to see I think it is actually the true odds.someday I hope I draw something in Nevada.

jrabq · Feb 14, 2017

I was an early (hopeful) believer in goHunt, but I have since found or seen a few situations that don't add up. The video didn't really give any details on how they derive the numbers for "multi-choice" states like NM, AZ, and NV, so my level of skepticism is rising a bit. They are still probably much better than the competition, but I wish I could be more confident.

WapitiBob · Feb 14, 2017

JR, have you talked to TopRut? I believe they have accounted for that in their simulator. I know when I talked to them your draw simulator thread came up as well as party apps.

Regarding the WY 114 Special, there was 1 tag, and 3 applicants. The application that was drawn was a party app of three. The other two apps did not draw, as mentioned by Buzz.

jrabq · Feb 14, 2017

WapitiBob said:
JR, have you talked to TopRut? I believe they have accounted for that in their simulator. I know when I talked to them your draw simulator thread came up as well as party apps.

Bob, I just sent them a message. I just noticed they gave a new description of NM on their website, and have updated all values based on simulation, looks awesome!

Brandon_goHUNT · Feb 14, 2017

Hey guys, Brandon with goHUNT. I've been one of those silent followers of the forum for a long time.

Buzz and Bob, I truly respect the knowledge and how well versed you guys are across the western states. I'd really like to connect and just chat about western hunting. With the Wy example, we've had it explained to us a little differently and I'd like to compare notes if you wouldn't mind and have time.

JR, please reach out with any questions, we want you to be confident in what we offer and I've been known to spill the beans a time or two. We can't explain everything in the video, that would be as long as a feature film.

My email is [email protected], again guys please reach out, I'd love to chat.

What Map · Feb 15, 2017

Brandon, welcome to Hunt Talk. And thanks for sharing your information and showing that you are willing to improve your product when you can. I was a statistician in a former life and know how hard some systems are to predict into the future.

grizzly_ · Feb 15, 2017

I prefer the odds from other sites. I have a much better chance of drawing in Arizona using their numbers

Kidding aside, I've been a gohunt subscriber for over a year and their site helped me find a sleeper unit in CO that produced a 202" buck this year. I'm a believer.

Now if they'd just give us odds for bear in Idaho, I'd really be happy (hint, hint).

WapitiBob · Feb 15, 2017

In the WY 114 example, the random number drawn was indeed a party of three. I incorrectly stated that that there would then be two unsuccessful apps. WY does not use just the party leader like other states; they simply issue the same random number to all members. As such, when one member is drawn, they all draw. Because all members are in the draw individually, they all show in the demand report as 1st choice apps.

BuzzH · Feb 15, 2017

WapitiBob said:
In the WY 114 example, the random number drawn was indeed a party of three. I incorrectly stated that that there would then be two unsuccessful apps. WY does not use just the party leader like other states; they simply issue the same random number to all members. As such, when one member is drawn, they all draw. Because all members are in the draw individually, they all show in the demand report as 1st choice apps.

That's a real handy way to show that...good grief.

So, do you know what it would look like if there was, say, a quota of 2 permits...1 individual applicant drew the first permit, the second was a party app and 3 drew tags, and there were another 3 parties/individuals in the same preference point pool that didn't draw?

Point being, how do we know how many applicants didn't draw when they assign 2-6 applicants the same random number in a party?

WapitiBob · Feb 15, 2017

jrabq · Feb 15, 2017

WapitiBob said:
In the 114 example, the three guys had 100% odds because they were in a party. If another separate individual app applied to that hunt he would have 25% odds.

Well this issue has already gotten confusing, so I'll stir the pot some more. If another separate individual app applied I think he would have 50% odds. Not sure I understand or agree with the description of the group (of 3) being seen as individuals; if they all have the same random number, they draw as a group, and look like a single entity/application (but when they draw 3 tags are issued). With the addition of "another separate individual app" there are now effectively 2 applications, so I think the odds would be 50%. Half the time they will issue the one tag to the individual, and half the time they will award 3 tags to the group.

WapitiBob · Feb 15, 2017

LopeHunter · Feb 15, 2017

WapitiBob said:
"..and look like a single entity/application ", this is the distinction that separates WY from any state I know of. Party apps aren't treated as a single app anywhere in the system.

Can I get a simplified example? I must say I love this stuff.

Say 9 guys apply for a WY pronghorn unit as their 1st choice where the unit offers 8 tags in that draw which is the Special Non-Resident draw. 6 of the 8 tags will be awarded in the point portion and 2 in the Random portion. 3 guys apply together as a group. The others apply as 3 individuals. The 3 individuals each have 5 points and 3 each have 4 points. The 3 in the group have 5, 4 and 3 points for an average of 4 points.

Are there 9 random numbers at play (each applicant gets a random number whether applying in a party or not) or only 7?

Is it correct that 3 tags go to the 3 individuals with 5 points each leaving 3 more in the point draw? If so, all the remaining applicants have 4 or average 4 points and now will shift to who has preference in the random number, correct? If 1 of the 3 individual applicants with 4 points draws a tag next then there are only 2 tags left in the point draw so does the party of 3 go dead in the points draw for their 1st Choice? If so, the remaining 2 individuals get the tags and then there are only 2 tags in the random portion so does that mean the party of 3 is not awarded those tags in the random portion so now looks at the 2nd choice which does not consider points, correct?

WapitiBob · Feb 15, 2017

Every applicant gets 2 random numbers, one for the PP draw and one for the Random draw.

I forgot to mention WY averages points for the party members. It sucks to get old....
WY will fill a party up to 6 applicants (5 over the quota).
The "quota balance" from the Special PP draw does not roll to the Special random draw. It gets held with the balance from the Special random and added to the original Regular draw quota, then re calculated for Regular PP and Regular random. Balances after the Regular PP/random get held for conversion to GEN if it's the Elk draw.

joelweb · Feb 15, 2017

This video is very helpful. What'd be a cool addition for Nevada is if after selecting five choices, we could get the odds for drawing one of them. Given their system, those would be the true actual draw odds for pulling something for a species.

jrabq · Feb 15, 2017

WapitiBob said:
"
There were 3 separate apps in the system for the 114 hunt referenced above (all with the same random number and points). Add another app, outside the party and there are 4 separate apps.

With all due respect Bob, I believe this is a distinction without a difference. If the "3 separate apps" all have the "same random numbers", the net effect is that they are in fact not separate. The program will order the applicants by random number. No other applicant has the ability to "fit" anywhere in between these 3 applicants, the 3 will always appear together in the list, the 4th person will either be above or below them on the list depending on his random#. If the party application got 3 unique random numbers, then I agree the added 4th person would have a 25% chance of drawing. But in fact in this scenario (3-party app + a 4th individual) there are only 2 unique random numbers, the odds are 50:50.

At least that's my thinking, I'd bet a beer, but nothing more!

WapitiBob · Feb 15, 2017

You're right, that should have been obvious. I still know the way home so I haven't lost it all.

Beer's on me when I get down that way.

cpoplayer · Feb 15, 2017

I'm not a math guy....you lost me at numbers. This is but one of the reasons I like the Insider service. As a newbie to Western hunting, goHunt broke down many of the walls that had prevented me from pursuing Western hunts in the past.

Draw Odds Matter

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