Been building points for Arizona and have 7 points now was thinking about trying to draw this year. Would like a rifle hunt but with the odds looks like a late hunt would be easier to draw. Would go muzzelloader also. Any ideas on a starting point. I was thinking unit 27 but not sure if there is something out there that i am missing, I would really like a 300+ bull for the wait and i am not worried about getting a couple miles in walk. Or do i wait a few more years and get a better hunt, the point creep keeps getting farther away and i would like to do this hunt some year, Thanks
Arizona with 7 points
- Thread starter streamer
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WapitiBob
Well-known member
Mid tier late rifle is where you're at.
Look at TopRut.com and if you'd like more data and lots of articles/stories you could join gohunt. Both those sites have the actual az nr app data from 2016 so the odds with points should be about the same.
Look at TopRut.com and if you'd like more data and lots of articles/stories you could join gohunt. Both those sites have the actual az nr app data from 2016 so the odds with points should be about the same.
Lv2hnt
Well-known member
If you'd be happy with a 300-pt bull (which is a nice elk), it's doable realistically in ANY of Arizona's elk hunt units. Not a slam dunk, but achievable. Accessibility during the hunt is usually not difficult in most hunt units (LOTS of forest service roads), unlike other more mountainous western states.
As has been already mentioned, there are programs out there which will point you to more favorable odds (for example > goHunt.com's Insider). As you've already surmised, your better odds will probably be with the later firearm hunts.
This will be the 2nd year where things have changed for non-residents in the bonus pass draw. 1/2 the 10% non-resident cap will be gobbled up in this 1st 20% bonus (preference) draw, leaving a possibility (not a guarantee) of another 5% in the general draw. This had an adverse impact on those non-residents with near max points built up, but it gave hope to all non-residents that they actually had a chance to draw a "better" tag in the general 80% draw (small as it might be).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMRrNY0pxfM
As has been already mentioned, there are programs out there which will point you to more favorable odds (for example > goHunt.com's Insider). As you've already surmised, your better odds will probably be with the later firearm hunts.
This will be the 2nd year where things have changed for non-residents in the bonus pass draw. 1/2 the 10% non-resident cap will be gobbled up in this 1st 20% bonus (preference) draw, leaving a possibility (not a guarantee) of another 5% in the general draw. This had an adverse impact on those non-residents with near max points built up, but it gave hope to all non-residents that they actually had a chance to draw a "better" tag in the general 80% draw (small as it might be).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMRrNY0pxfM
naturebob
New member
Its easier to get a 300 Bull in AZ. than any State. I have 2 that are 330+ and am almost embaressed as a resident to tell any one from here. I have 8 points in Wyoming and don't even really wanna go. My buddy in Casper is warning Me its not the same............BOB!
Looking at top rut, there's lots of late hunts u could draw at 7 points. You r right at The threshold as a lot of them take 6 points or 7. Last year it indicates 27 took 8 points. But you could possibly draw 10 which is considered a pretty good late hunt. Just make sure you pick a unit that has some glasing opportunity and some topography. Unit 9 is great early season but isn't considered a good late hunt due to above problems w glassing etc. So if you were gonna go on a late hunt Id say go now. You are a long time away from a early rifle or muzzleloader. There's a few early archery hunts as a possibility as well with 7 or 8 points
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WapitiBob
Well-known member
Remember that odds sites excepting one (ron wold/oregon) are simply showing you last years odds. If you don't have the number of apps in each point pool you're spinning your wheels.
Toprut has last years NR applicant pool now on website. I'm very impressed with the info they have considering it's free. So my question is, it shows at the 7 point pool NR there were 22 app and 7 drew. Of course there were some tgat drew at a higher point level. So that leaves 15 for this year. And 25 app with 6 points none drew. With 25 NR tags in bonus pass that leaves 40 app for this year with 7 and 8 points going for 25 tags that's assuming they apply the same as last year.Assuming the NR get their 5% in bonus pass, how do u predict if these same applicants will apply for the same hunt especially the second choice ppl? And also how do who figure how many jump in at a higher point level or maybe they don't? My thoughts are for middle tier hunts as this one, ppl jump around from year to year and u just don't know where they may apply. The top tier hunts I feel may be more predictable with who applys year in and year out. I don't have the points for any tag so I'm hoping for a random tag at best!
AZBridger
Active member
PM me if you would like. I have a LOT of experience on late rifle hunts in Arizona. a mid to top tier late rifle hunt for a nonresident will require in the ballpark of 10-15 points i would imagine to be guaranteed a tag. i drew 27 late bull last year with 8bp as a resident and was not in the bonus pass. shot my smallest bull to date, scores around 330". there are a lot of units you could expect to draw with that many BP's and get a crack at a 300"+ bull if you work at it a little bit. the big 350"+ bulls are really hard to come by in the non top tier units, but that doesn't mean they don't exist.
WapitiBob
Well-known member
"..how do u predict if these same applicants will apply for the same hunt especially the second choice ppl.."
The most accurate I can be in predicting my 2017 odds is to use the last years pools. If you have historical draw data you also look at the application trends. Being the first year the Dept has provided the AZ NR pools, all we can do is use the previous pool numbers. Guys do jump around but it seems to be a little better than the way they jump in UT. It's always a guess, you just try and guess as good as you can. Ron Wold does use trends to predict the app pools for Oregon and I have talked to TopRut about predictive odds like Wold's but it's a ways away if they end up doing it.
The most accurate I can be in predicting my 2017 odds is to use the last years pools. If you have historical draw data you also look at the application trends. Being the first year the Dept has provided the AZ NR pools, all we can do is use the previous pool numbers. Guys do jump around but it seems to be a little better than the way they jump in UT. It's always a guess, you just try and guess as good as you can. Ron Wold does use trends to predict the app pools for Oregon and I have talked to TopRut about predictive odds like Wold's but it's a ways away if they end up doing it.
