What is the end game with tags?

What is everyone's theory on how the western tag systems play out as these systems "mature" in the future. It already takes 20+ points to draw the higher demand tags. Will that go up to 50+ points? Will a kid born today have a realistic chance to hunt a tough to draw unit/species before they hit retirement age.....or will they have to outlive everyone else and hunt with a walker? Will the states see through their short sightedness and scrap the points system or phase them out? Just curious to see what others think on the issue.

I got started late in the points game and don't have any fantasies about drawing some of these tougher to draw and OIL tags. I just like to hunt and will focus on elk, deer, and antelope in somewhat "easier" to draw areas.

I was talking to a good friend of mine on the phone last week...I think he summed it up with kids starting out for things like sheep, moose, goats, etc.

Tom said, "Its going to be interesting to see how many 12 year olds that start applying today, pay with their sheep/moose/goat tags with social security checks"...

I think they'll be lucky to even get the chance to see their social security check go to a sheep/moose/goat tag.

I doubt there's any going back for the states that have a point system...the squawking from the blue-haired hunters would be ridiculous.

I would give up every point I have, and its a chitload, in every state for a random draw.

BuzzH, thanks for your response but I hope you are wrong. That would mean that 50 years from now, virtually all of the tags for sheep, moose, goats, etc... will go to 80+ year old hunters? Surely someone will come to their senses first. Although would be a new niche market to fill "Blue Hair Sheep Outfitters".

LWC55 said:

BuzzH, thanks for your response but I hope you are wrong. That would mean that 50 years from now, virtually all of the tags for sheep, moose, goats, etc... will go to 80+ year old hunters? Surely someone will come to their senses first. Although would be a new niche market to fill "Blue Hair Sheep Outfitters".

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Check the pictures of about 90% of the sheep hunters in Wyoming...blue hair in most of them.

Also, check this out, total number of preference point holders for NR sheep in Wyoming.

https://wgfd.wyo.gov/WGFD/media/content/PDF/Hunting/TOTAL_PREF_POINTS_MS.pdf

Keep in mind...61 total NR sheep tags in Wyoming last year.

Social security checks will likely only pay for a 12 year old that starts applying today if they live long enough past retirement age...most wont make it.

If nobody were to drop out of the current system for WY sheep...and tags #'s stayed the same, it will take 156 years to ensure every current applicant would get a sheep tag...making the unluckiest of the unlucky not drawing until they're 168 years old...or 2 lifetimes.

Even in my case, with 17 resident sheep points, I have 827 people in front of me with another 291 of my best friends in my point pool.

It would take at least another 8 years to get through all those in front of me and my point pool...with about 150 tags issued per year.

Its depressing...I'll be close to paying for my own hunt with a social security check...

You really would need to get an actuary involved with mortality tables to really get a good feel for it. But then you would need the age of each person who is holding the points.

I think you could safely assume that the average age of the current point holders is somewhere in the 45 to 50 year old age group. By the time a 12 year old gets to that age probably half of the current point holders will have passed on. Plus some of them will have actually got a tag and been able to go on a hunt. We are still talking 30 or 40 years though.

My thought is that social security won't be around that long for them to use it to pay for a tag.

Ha! Good points...

As one of those fellow 291 residents with 17 PP for sheep, please don't remind me of the wait I still have ahead of me. Mid 50's sheep hunt sounds like a nice retirement gift to myself.

I tell my sons, 11 and 9, if they want to hunt moose, sheep and goats they need to make the most of higher education and save early. I am barely counting on SS, I doubt they will even know what it is.

I wish the states with preference points would convert to a bonus point system. The people in the game longest would still have an advantage, but everyone would have at least a mathematical possibility of drawing.

How will it play out?

I think states will have 2 options; either they will find some way to augment the points systems or they will be forced to return to random draw.

How could they augment the system? Perhaps some states would change their "points squared" systems to "points cubed" or "points to the nth power" systems. Maybe they start splitting drawings into age brackets. Maybe they split the drawings into point pools where a certain % of tags go to those with 20+ then 10+ etc. Or maybe they limit you to choose only one or two species to apply for and accrue points. Maybe you lose your points if you miss even 1 year of applying or you fail to complete a harvest report. No matter what they do, it will only provide the illusion of increased odds and "fairness" without helping the situation.

I think eventually hunters will demand some kind of change to the system but those with 20+ years of points will be reluctant to give up what has taken them so long to build. I do still think that there is a "fair" way to phase out point systems. You simply halt the accrual of any more points. Those with points will still get to keep them until they draw out so they won't have lost anything. They will still have their points and whatever increased odds of drawing that comes with it. So if you currently have 10 points you will be entered in the drawing with 10 points until you draw no matter how long it takes. This way those with points will slowly leave the pool until it returns to a true random drawing.

The only question I have is how long before we reach that point?

Magnum Sherpa said:

I wish the states with preference points would convert to a bonus point system. The people in the game longest would still have an advantage, but everyone would have at least a mathematical possibility of drawing.

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I hate all preference and bonus systems. The train wreck that is CO deer and WY sheep is but the tip of the upcoming iceberg. They say the lottery is for people that are bad at math. Same is true for point systems where the demand for a tag exceeds the supply by 10 or more times. If you take more than a decade to make it to the top of the pool and then draw there is blatant inequity for the applicant that is just starting to apply.

Oh, you were an applicant in the first year so think is really cool to be in Max Pool until draw? Let's look at WY sheep. Odds are around 1 in 250 applicants will draw a sheep tag in WY randomly in a given year. If you were a toddler when the WY sheep racket was launched then for the next 50 years you have 1 in 250 odds assuming sheep do not die off, etc. The applicant around in first year of the racket is now at 100% odds. Only took abut 20 years rather than the 60 it takes to just get to max pool as new applicant this year. Unfair to base such an advantage merely because of timing of when you were born.

About the only way out is to cap the max points you accumulate at 10 or 20 then a new applicant will even out the odds in a couple of decades while the prior applicants will have a "reward" of better odds while new applicants march towards the cap. Without a cap, current new applicants will have about 1 in 5 odds to draw in the next 60 years. That is what it should be for everyone, every year. Shifting the odds based on the randomness of the year a program started is stupid for hunters and fantastic for game departments that see idiots clawing to find that preference point money even when the economy tanks (see 2008 downturn). Much like cigs or booze, the only way to win is to lose.

They will most likely offer people to share points. That way the people that can afford to hunt and spend the most money still get a chance. It's a way for them to get money from people that have no interest in hunting.

Best way I can think to resolve this issue in the future is to slowly phase out of the draw schemes we currently have in most states, and go to straight random draw. The people currently holding points for Elk, Deer and Antelope would get to keep their points and lose them only once they draw a tag. Once they draw, their points are eliminated and they will be on the same level playing field as everyone else. That way people cant complain about paying money for x amount of years on licenses and points, and getting their points taken away if there ever was a "reset" change going back to a random draw. Idaho and New Mexico shouldn't change a damn thing. As far as Sheep, Moose, Goat, I don't know, and I don't want to touch that subject with a ten foot pole.

Just for perspective I thought I would post this. When I was 12 in 1974 my dad, my 2 brothers and I started putting in for goat tags in sw mt. In the first 3 years we drew 5 goat tags between us. I have had 3 goat tags, the last in the early 1990s. I now have 2 sons in their early twenties who most likely will never hold a goat tag. I would like to see the point system scrapped personally, the kids today are sol.

You know, the elderly, while slow and dangerous behind the wheel, can sheep hunt thanks to the point systems. Don't go dying on us now.

I threw in the towel on some of these sheep applications realizing my chances are zero and my money would be better spent on Alaska or Canada sheep.

Montana's system seems fair. My daughter drew a moose tag at 13, first year applying. Only so many animals and so many tags. everyone gets a chance, those with more points get more chances. At the end of the day it's a lottery, just like the lottery everyone can't win.

Though I participate, I hate point systems regardless if they are bonus or preference. I agree with the bleak forecast on very hard to draw tags and realize my two boys are mostly without a chance at those. I also do not see any state abandoning their point system and going to a random draw ever. Too many folks at all point levels would have a conniption.

It's threads like this and conversations I've had, especially with Buzz, that make me take a hard look at the conservation groups I support with either time or money. One's that focus on access and/or critters I can actually hunt are much more likely to get my support.

My 9yo has the best plan in our house for getting to hunt sheep. He plans on being a pro football or baseball player...

I guess what really irks me is like someone has already said.....a person can go from a 100% guaranteed tag to virtually 0% chance to draw based on when they are born and when state implemented the point system. Seems so very short sighted. Seems like it is only good for one generation and then only those that got in at the very front of the line. How does this effect hunter recruitment in the long term....especially for OIL species? How many 12 year olds born in 2050 will start buying points for an animal that will 50+ years to draw the tag? How many folks will support conservation groups for these species that they 0% chance to hunt?

I gave up the point game 10 yrs ago really.
Burnt my CA deer points to hunt a good unit with friend one last time. Never drew a elk tag.
Only thing I ever got out of 15 yrs of points in UT was a Gen. South mule deer tag.And a $165 bill to keep my useless points.Then all the overlapping hunts started to get worse.
Gave up on CO and all the added & overlapping hunts.

I moved to NM and have always liked their system and got tags. I still get tags and it's random.
More points and chances for you folks now...lol

LWC55 said:

I guess what really irks me is like someone has already said.....a person can go from a 100% guaranteed tag to virtually 0% chance to draw based on when they are born and when state implemented the point system. Seems so very short sighted. Seems like it is only good for one generation and then only those that got in at the very front of the line. How does this effect hunter recruitment in the long term....especially for OIL species? How many 12 year olds born in 2050 will start buying points for an animal that will 50+ years to draw the tag? How many folks will support conservation groups for these species that they 0% chance to hunt?

Click to expand...

You're asking the wrong questions...hunting and recruitment will not be saved by sheep, moose, and goat tags or the "fair" distribution of the associated tags for same. IMO, you need to quit worrying about the hard to draw tags/species and how those impact hunter recruitment or retain hunters. Those species, IMO, draw out the very worst in human behavior...exactly why the point systems were adopted, the ego fueled BS that revolves around hunting those species, the adoption of raffle tags, governors tags, the commercialization, the list goes on and on.

Like pointer said, concentrate on what you CAN hunt...stay focused on the massive amounts of opportunity and species that WILL save the sport via hunter recruitment and retention. Focus on access and increasing access to the blue collar species that we all can hunt yearly.

Does a person need to draw a desert sheep tag to experience the desert environments of Arizona? Hell no, very easy to draw coues deer tags, javelina, even bird hunting there is a grand adventure. What the heck is wrong with a high country mule deer hunt in Wyoming, instead of a sheep hunt? What's wrong with a 12 year old kid having a couple pronghorn doe tags in their pocket and a vast expanse of Wyoming prairie to hunt? You don't need a tag for a curly horned critter to experience some wonderful hunting.

I say if we're worrying about drawing moose, sheep, and goat tags....we're missing the point. We're robbing ourselves of experiences that are well within reach.

What I truly miss about hunting, and what's most important to me...is the 12 year old kid with a ruger m77, a pocket full of Winchester power points, a fanny pack with a sandwich, candy bar, dragging rope, old timer knife, and a Montana deer and elk tag...hunting with Dad and Grandpa.

THAT is what I miss, and I wouldn't trade that for all the f-ing sheep tags on the planet...ever.

I'm embarrassed for myself at times that I've allowed myself to worry about chit like preference point systems and OIL tags...not that important in the entire scheme of things. Focus on what you CAN do, not on what you CANT.