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Expert: Valley's economy will be either bad or terrible in 2009
Dismal economic outlook for '09 at Westmarc meeting
by Carrie Watters - Jan. 28, 2009 12:15 PM
The Arizona Republic
Anyone who headed to Westmarc's annual economic forecast breakfast Wednesday morning hoping for a pep talk likely walked away disappointed, or downright depressed.
Valley economist Elliott Pollack told the crowd of business, education and municipal leaders who gathered at the Glendale Civic Center that 2009 will likely be termed a bad year or even a terrible one.
"Those are the options," Pollack said.
The gist of the problem, he said, is that in the first six years of this decade, 10 years' worth of housing was built. The last four years will be spent eating that excess until some equilibrium is reached.
Add in the national economic slowdown and credit crunch and it's a rough ride.
The Valley has 20,000 to 40,000 excess homes to absorb, which could take a while - Pollack estimated that last year, only about 3,000 were absorbed.
"Until we work off that oversupply, we've got nowhere to go. It's that simple," Pollack said.
In a Valley so dependent on growth to fuel its economy, building permits are down 90 percent from the peak. Realtors struggle, construction crews feel the slowdown and furniture showrooms are pinched.
"All of this stuff ripples through the economy," Pollack said.
The Valley now ranks 28th out of 32 major employment markets in the country, areas with 1 million or more jobs.
"Cleveland is doing better than we are," he said
Dismal economic outlook for '09 at Westmarc meeting
by Carrie Watters - Jan. 28, 2009 12:15 PM
The Arizona Republic
Anyone who headed to Westmarc's annual economic forecast breakfast Wednesday morning hoping for a pep talk likely walked away disappointed, or downright depressed.
Valley economist Elliott Pollack told the crowd of business, education and municipal leaders who gathered at the Glendale Civic Center that 2009 will likely be termed a bad year or even a terrible one.
"Those are the options," Pollack said.
The gist of the problem, he said, is that in the first six years of this decade, 10 years' worth of housing was built. The last four years will be spent eating that excess until some equilibrium is reached.
Add in the national economic slowdown and credit crunch and it's a rough ride.
The Valley has 20,000 to 40,000 excess homes to absorb, which could take a while - Pollack estimated that last year, only about 3,000 were absorbed.
"Until we work off that oversupply, we've got nowhere to go. It's that simple," Pollack said.
In a Valley so dependent on growth to fuel its economy, building permits are down 90 percent from the peak. Realtors struggle, construction crews feel the slowdown and furniture showrooms are pinched.
"All of this stuff ripples through the economy," Pollack said.
The Valley now ranks 28th out of 32 major employment markets in the country, areas with 1 million or more jobs.
"Cleveland is doing better than we are," he said
