I've been putting in for points for Arizona for 5 years this year so I think I will get the loyalty point this year. So with 6 points how do I figure out what units I have the best chance to draw in. I don't care if it's a late season hunt, muzzelloader or what ever, I don't want to buy points for 15 years. I don't understand the system with the 1-2 pass and the bonus pass. I just don't want to be putting in for units that I have 0% chance to draw when I could be trying for a unit that I may have 50% + chance. Thanks for any help figuring this out or a link that might show me draw odds with X amount of points for each Unit.
Arizona point system?
- Thread starter streamer
- Start date
A couple ways to find this out.
First is to download the AZ G&F elk proclamation from 2014. It will give you the hunt codes for each unit and each season. Then, go to their website and get the draw results for every hunt code. You can then scan to see which hunt codes allowed NRs at your points level to draw in the first pass. It is a lot of work. I've done it to make sure the other systems I use were accurate.
Second way is a much easier way; spend $29 and buy a subscription to Hunters Trailhead. Their AZ odds are exactly as shown in the AZ data. And most their other states are more accurate than any other odds I have found published by research services.
Good luck.
First is to download the AZ G&F elk proclamation from 2014. It will give you the hunt codes for each unit and each season. Then, go to their website and get the draw results for every hunt code. You can then scan to see which hunt codes allowed NRs at your points level to draw in the first pass. It is a lot of work. I've done it to make sure the other systems I use were accurate.
Second way is a much easier way; spend $29 and buy a subscription to Hunters Trailhead. Their AZ odds are exactly as shown in the AZ data. And most their other states are more accurate than any other odds I have found published by research services.
Good luck.
LopeHunter
Well-known member
Hunters Trailhead is your best bet for the historical point trend unless you really like parsing through multi-columns of data on 2 or 3 reports for one or more years. Nothing is guaranteed in the AZ draw since NR get up to 10% of tags yet the first bonus pass uses up 20% of tags so there are often several elk hunt codes where zero NR tags are awarded in the random draw. A unit that you could draw with a couple of fewer points last year might become a higher demand unit if Huntin' Fool or a couple of forums suddenly pump interest in the same hunt this draw.
Assume if you can draw a NR AZ elk tag that there are some warts to deal with whether than be hunter access issues, high number of tags, archery, low harvest, younger age class bulls, etc.
Are you firm on AZ or just want to hunt elk out West? MT has had leftover NR elk tags the past few years and has a long season and less pressure in most cases than AZ hunts. Some of the 6-point class AZ elk hunts involve sitting on a water hole which can lead to conflicts when hunters outnumber waterholes. Sitting on a waterhole resembles Midwest whitetail hunting to me and may not be what you want on an elk hunt out West.
All in all, I prefer any elk hunt over any whitetail hunt but I grew up hunting whitetail bucks with a rifle in the rut so perhaps elk are the greener grass in my case.
Assume if you can draw a NR AZ elk tag that there are some warts to deal with whether than be hunter access issues, high number of tags, archery, low harvest, younger age class bulls, etc.
Are you firm on AZ or just want to hunt elk out West? MT has had leftover NR elk tags the past few years and has a long season and less pressure in most cases than AZ hunts. Some of the 6-point class AZ elk hunts involve sitting on a water hole which can lead to conflicts when hunters outnumber waterholes. Sitting on a waterhole resembles Midwest whitetail hunting to me and may not be what you want on an elk hunt out West.
All in all, I prefer any elk hunt over any whitetail hunt but I grew up hunting whitetail bucks with a rifle in the rut so perhaps elk are the greener grass in my case.
WapitiBob
Well-known member
Hunters Trailhead is close on most, off on some but a good quick resource. The new draw report will be out a few days after the elk app period closes, which won't help you pick a unit for 2015 but you'll have a clear picture of your odds once it comes out.
sagebrush
Active member
It's really not that tough. Took me about 3 minutes.
You could draw any late rifle tag except unit 1 or any late archery tag except units 1, 5B, 6A, 21, 22S, 23 and 27 with 6 points in 2014. The only limitation would be the 10% non-resident cap and there is currently no way to differentiate between resident and non-resident tags in the report.
Here's the link to the 2014 report:
http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/docu... Point Report - Bonus Pass by Hunt Number.pdf
Of course, you can draw a tag for any hunt in the 1-2 pass, subject to the non-resident cap, but that's like winning the lottery.
You could draw any late rifle tag except unit 1 or any late archery tag except units 1, 5B, 6A, 21, 22S, 23 and 27 with 6 points in 2014. The only limitation would be the 10% non-resident cap and there is currently no way to differentiate between resident and non-resident tags in the report.
Here's the link to the 2014 report:
http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/docu... Point Report - Bonus Pass by Hunt Number.pdf
Of course, you can draw a tag for any hunt in the 1-2 pass, subject to the non-resident cap, but that's like winning the lottery.
WapitiBob
Well-known member
When we talk about max points for a given hunt, it's the highest point total for an applicant that has applied for that hunt. It could be 1 point or it could be 20, all depends on who applies.
Points have been updated for elk so you could go online now and see your point total going into 2015.
6 points wasn't 100% for all late rifle hunts but unit 1 so I wouldn't run out and buy a plane ticket.
Points have been updated for elk so you could go online now and see your point total going into 2015.
6 points wasn't 100% for all late rifle hunts but unit 1 so I wouldn't run out and buy a plane ticket.
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Just trying to play the odds so I don't put in for another hunt and draw both that would make the wife alittle upset. First I would like to see which units I have a good chance to draw then I would research those units to see which might be the best hunt, with access to public, success, terrain etc.
WapitiBob
Well-known member
First thing to do is check your points. Gotta know where you're at.
sagebrush
Active member
Don't need to be 100% to guarantee a draw. If anyone drew a tag with less than 6 points in the bonus round , then everyone eligible with 6 points or more was guaranteed a tag. The percentage on the report is calculated based on the total number of 1st and 2nd choice applicants. If an applicant drew their first choice in another unit, then the percentage would be less than 100% for that point bracket. Also holds true if the non-resident cap was reached. That's why you see 5 points with 53%, 6 points with 78% and 7 points with 100%.
WapitiBob
Well-known member
5B, 6A, and 9 weren't 100% at 6 points in addition to unit 1. Only units 9 and 10 hit the 10% cap for late rifle hunts.
sagebrush
Active member
The most points any applicant had for 5BN was 5, so any applicant with 6 points would draw that tag.
5BS had 3 applications that were all 2nd choice. Two drew 5BS and one drew their first choice, so one tag went to an applicant with 5 points. The only way an applicant with 5 points can draw a tag in the bonus round is if all applicants with 6 points drew a tag.
6A - Hunt Code 3150 was 100% with 5 points, so again anyone with 6 points would have drawn that tag as well.
9 had three applicants with 6 points, one drew it as their first choice, one drew it with their second choice and one drew their first choice tag in another unit, so one tag went to a hunter with 5 points. Just like 5BS, if another applicant with 6 points would have applied, he would have drawn and no applicant with 5 points would get a tag.
Last year, an applicant with 6 points drew any late rifle hunt for which they applied except Unit 1 and subject to the non-resident cap.
5BS had 3 applications that were all 2nd choice. Two drew 5BS and one drew their first choice, so one tag went to an applicant with 5 points. The only way an applicant with 5 points can draw a tag in the bonus round is if all applicants with 6 points drew a tag.
6A - Hunt Code 3150 was 100% with 5 points, so again anyone with 6 points would have drawn that tag as well.
9 had three applicants with 6 points, one drew it as their first choice, one drew it with their second choice and one drew their first choice tag in another unit, so one tag went to a hunter with 5 points. Just like 5BS, if another applicant with 6 points would have applied, he would have drawn and no applicant with 5 points would get a tag.
Last year, an applicant with 6 points drew any late rifle hunt for which they applied except Unit 1 and subject to the non-resident cap.
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havgunwilltravel
Active member
Here is the deer and sheep info.
http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/docu... Point Report - Bonus Pass by Hunt Number.pdf
http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/docu... Point Report - Bonus Pass by Hunt Number.pdf
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WapitiBob
Well-known member
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WapitiBob
Well-known member
dbl post
This post has inspired me to s-can the Huntin' Fool and hire Hunter's Trailhead. More accurate and better research tools, minus the color-glossy photographs, and saves $75 a year to boot, though it is a wash that they're both based in UT...
WapitiBob
Well-known member
Huntin Fool started getting the same report I do that breaks out res/nr, 1st/2nd choices drawn, on a per hunt basis so you can see how many NR tags were drawn in the Bonus Pass. In the past, a worthwhile thing to know if you're a NR. HT didn't have or provide that info but they're pretty good on their numbers and the format is easy to read.
It's a moot point going forward as the new draw report will show everything needed to see where in line you are and how many are ahead of you, res or nr.
It's a moot point going forward as the new draw report will show everything needed to see where in line you are and how many are ahead of you, res or nr.
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