Hunt Talk Radio - Look for it on your favorite Podcast platform

2014 Arizona Draw Odds Report

I don't think so, because they mesh residents & nonresidents in the chart? But don't know if it can be filtered somehow.
 
Wapitibob is your source for AZ draw info, maybe he'll see your post and chime in.

At 14 points (I know you said 13) it looks much better as that is where all first and some second choice apps were drawn. Anyhow, that's my unscientific method of breaking these down. Not sure if that shows the cuttoff between the two passes or not and hence just buying a bonus point by applying.
 
You have to consider the total number of tags for this hunt. If there are fewer than 10 tags, there is only one tag for nonres. You odds of getting drawn go astronomical at that point. trying to darw anb antelope tag in Az is really tough right now. Even for a resident with 23 points.
 
Zim said:
I don't think so, because they mesh residents & nonresidents in the chart? But don't know if it can be filtered somehow.
Click to expand...

That's my understanding too is that it is both residents and non-residents combined. I don't know of any way to separate the two. Basically I am very unhelpful.
 
I will try to explain the way I interpret the results. It is confusing and leaves a little to guess work, but I think this will be right or close to it.

Hunt 3118 had a total of 300 tags. In the first round, there are 60 tags that go to the highest points holders that apply. Also a max. of 30 tags can go to NR's

2 tags went to 17 point group - both NR
2 tags went to 16 point group - both NR
5 tags went to 15 point group - all NR
16 tags went to 14 point group - all NR, 1 second choice applicant was successful on their first choice and was not in drawing for this hunt.
9 tags went to 13 point group - 5 were NR for a total of 30, 4 were R. There were 32 apps.

This is where the guess work comes in. Of the 32 apps, 17 first choice, 15 were second choice. Those 15 second choice either were NR's or were awarded their first choice or a combination of the two. The remaining 8 first choice were NR's.

So going in with 14 points next year you have a min of 8 NR's or a max of 23, if all things stay the same.

Now you get to the 12 point group. 37 apps, 25 first choice, 12 second choice. Only 6 tags awarded. That means min of 19 NR's and a max of 31.

Now to answer your question.

Assuming the tag numbers stay the same, and the applicants stay the same, with 30 NR tags, you will have the following odds.

Best case = 8 to 14 point holders, 19 to 13 point holders and 3 to 12 point holders. In that scenario at 13 points you are guaranteed a tag.

Worst case = 23 to 14 point holders, 7 to 13 point holders. In that scenario you would have a 7 in 31 or 22.5% odds of being drawn.

In reality it is probably somewhere in the middle.
 
I called the dept today to get updates.

A new draw report is scheduled for release shortly after the close of the 2015 Elk app period. It will be populated with 2014 data, split res/nr, and list by point pool, per hunt code. You will know exactly where you are in line for a tag. It will be updated with 2015 data after the draw.

Regarding the odds for 2015, the new draw changes are on course and will be public late December, prior to the app period for Elk. Scheduled to be in place for the 2016 Elk/Antelope draw. Estimating odds for 2015 will be an exercise in futility.
 
Last edited:
WapitiBob said:
Regarding the odds for 2015, the new draw changes are on course and will be public late December, prior to the app period for Elk. Scheduled to be in place for the 2016 Elk/Antelope draw. Estimating odds for 2015 will be an exercise in futility.
Click to expand...

What are the new draw changes?
 
Bob,

Is that "up to 5%" on the 1-2 pass?

So they cut the NR tags in half basically?
 
No I think what it means is basically half the tags will be preference, the other half will in essence be issued randomly? Which will destroy our point power if we don't cash in next year.

Wow thanks jabber, That was a lot of trouble you went through!

I was aware of the 2016 draw changes, so I'm really hoping we can cash in 2015. Seems like our odds will be around 50/50.
 
WapitiBob said:
NR Bonus pass to 5% max, 5% for the 1-2 pass.
Click to expand...

Do you happen to know if this will be like UT if there is less than 20 total tags for a hunt, and the non-res tag will go in the 1-2 pass? I would assume so, and those who have been applying for a long time are about to get the screws put to them (again).
 
I suspect the upcoming changes will make some of the lower-demand hunts easier to draw, as right now, many guys don't even apply for the "glory" tags knowing the NR tags are all gone in the bonus pass round.

For guys like me who will take most any tag AZ will give me, that is beneficial. If I was still holding max deer points, or 20 antelope points, I would probably have a different perspective.

One thing you can bet when you are investing in points - What you are buying today is going to change in some way/shape/form by the time you probably get to use those points. Look at most of the western states and they are in a perpetual process of tinkering with their point systems. Buyer beware.
 
If the change happens why would more people put in for the Glory tags? Their odds go from zero to .02%. That's why I don't understand why they are changing it. It is like the classic Dumb and Dumber line..."So what you are saying is...there is a chance?"
 
"One thing you can bet when you are investing in points - What you are buying today is going to change in some way/shape/form by the time you probably get to use those points. Look at most of the western states and they are in a perpetual process of tinkering with their point systems. Buyer beware."

There's only three states I know of that have never devalued the points they sold me..........New Hampshire, Iowa & Arizona. I will get screwed by the change if I can't cash in my points in 2015, but I'll still leave AZ in this category because they won't be lowering the total number of tags going to NR's. Just changing their distribution, but still it's intended to make more money by screwing some in my opinion.
 
You are correct in theory Az is maintaining up to 10% for nonresidents but keep in mind the additional 5% now may not end up in nonresident hands. therefore they did reduce the number of no resident tags. It will happen on the Strip.

Idaho has the best system no points!
 
i have to believe that everyone will be trying to "cash in " on this next draw having your idea of odds being tossed out the window.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

W
Arizona draw changes
Replies
17
Views
3K
dmandoes
D
Big Fin
Arizona Deadline - February 9th
2
Replies
32
Views
5K
Devil Diver Down
Devil Diver Down

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
111,094
Messages
1,946,621
Members
35,021
Latest member
1st BDX Scope

Share this page

Back
Top